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-   -   The 2008 Campaign has begun (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=256432)

iron81 11-09-2006 02:14 PM

The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
AP

Cliffs Notes: Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has announced that he is running for President and has filed documents to form a campaign committee.

Analysis: As much as I love politics, I could have used a few weeks off. Oh well.

Dan. 11-09-2006 02:18 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
Russ Feingold is expected to annouce his running or not in a week or so, as well.

sam h 11-09-2006 02:32 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
With a strong showing early, boosted by his Iowa base, I think Vilsack could put himself into the mix for a VP nod. I really doubt he will have the money and name recognition to make much of dent in the presidential.

Case Closed 11-09-2006 03:08 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president?

iron81 11-09-2006 03:13 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
Most of them will declare by August or September. Not unheard of to get a straggler in November (next november).

Case Closed 11-09-2006 03:22 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
[ QUOTE ]
Most of them will declare by August or September. Not unheard of to get a straggler in November (next november).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, then they campaign for the primaries which is around march 08?

iron81 11-09-2006 03:27 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
They start in January nowadays. States keep moving up their primaries so that they are close to the front. States that are close to the front have more influence and more attention from the candidates. The nominees will have a lock no later than the middle of March.

Dynasty 11-09-2006 04:24 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
[ QUOTE ]

Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has announced that he is running for President and has filed documents to form a campaign committee.


[/ QUOTE ]

This could impact the Democratic nomination process in a way similar to 1992. In that year, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for President. As a result, none of the Democratic contenders bothered to campaign in the Iowa Caucus. It became a non-factor in the election. Instead, all the candidates focused on New Hampshire and former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas got the win over Bill Clinton.

DVaut1 11-09-2006 04:49 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
[ QUOTE ]
I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president?

[/ QUOTE ]

As it is right now, you can probably make a short list candidates from each party with a very real shot of running and winning the nomination. While an "official announement" is a nice way to spill some ink and get some face time, you can narrow down the possible field right now, regardless of an official announcement -- running for President is a lengthy process and many have been getting their organizations, fund-raisers, PACs, strategy teams, etc. in place for a quite a while now:



Democrats Almost Certainly Running:
Sen. Clinton
former Sen. Edwards
Gov. Vilsack
Sen. Bayh
Sen. Feingold
Wesley Clark
Gov. Richardson

Democrats Maybe Running But With No Real Shot of Winning the Nomination:
Sen. Kerry
Sen. Biden
Sen. Dodd

Wildcards:
former VP Gore
Sen. Obama

----------------

GOPers Almost Certainly Running:
Sen. McCain
Gov. Romney
Gov. Huckabee
former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich

GOPers Maybe Running But With No Real Short of Winning the Nomination:
former Sen. Allen
Sen. Hagel
Sen. Brownback
former Sen. Frist
Rep. Tancredo

Wilcards:
Gov. Jeb Bush
Sec. State Rice

I think this is pretty comprehensive. If I've left anyone out, they likely fall under the "No Real Shot of Winning" groups, with the caveat that Howard Dean was relatively unkown and a huge long shot to win the '04 Dem. Nomination in the autumn of 2002. He obviously didn't win, but it's hard to say he didn't become very relevant in the nomination process.

hmkpoker 11-09-2006 04:54 PM

Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
 
My picks are Hillary and McCain.


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