$100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd

[PBJaxx]

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recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

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I see your point. I don't have any mathematical basis for this, but I believe that villain having a queen is more likely than villain catching a piece on the river. The bet doesn't have to work everytime to be profitable, though. I still believe checking behind is best.

-Jaxx

[ChipStorm]

Villain could be drawing with either [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s or JT.

matrix, I've had that same experience of checking the river and losing to a better busted hand, so as played, I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.

But I would check the turn, and maybe even the flop. As NLHETAP says, tend to semibluff more when your draw is not to the nuts, than when it is. You have a nut draw, and you're being offered free cards on both the flop and turn. And unlikely as it may be, if any overflushing is going down this hand, you're going to be on the happy end of it.

So against the strong possibility that villain may be calling down with a better hand than we have, and the small chance that we have a draw to stackage, I definitely check the turn; and depending on how the table is playing, maybe even the flop.

[allaboutmyfetti]

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I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.


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Link? Is this referencing an earlier post or something?

[matrix]

You haven't read the stickies (????)

fimbulwinter post

3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

This is kind of my thinking behind my river push here (yes I'm bluffing "big" - but I can't see less than a push here being called if villains spiked some crap pair on the turn/river given how big my stack is in relation to the pot)

Also if I check behind an observant villain will see what cards I'm betting with here - if he folds he doesn't get to see my hand.

[ChipStorm]

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I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.


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Link? Is this referencing an earlier post or something?

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Ohhhh, yeah. See #3

[pho75]

I would never 3-barrel an unknown, NEVER. Also, look at his stack size. He's probably not a weak player. Take your free card to the nuts and check behind on the turn.

[ChipStorm]

Missed it by *that* much....

[allaboutmyfetti]

my b, apparently i didn't read all the stickies.

edit: ok i did read these, i just have the memory of a goldfish.

[EddieRooo]

i also agree that betting the river here is a mistake (esp since in position). There are more things than just a queen that will call the river having called the turn bet.

I would usually not bet the turn (this is read dependent) but if you do I would be more since you want to take the hand down there and its not a value bet.

If i was "repping aa or kk" i wouldnt bet 10 into 16 on the flop either.


Cheers

[amoeba]

stacksizes a bit awkward for this due to multiple callers preflop.