Trying to establish a Earn rate... how many hours to get a real one?

[Arnfinn Madsen]

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In limit I seriously think 50k hands is too few to establish if you are a winner, but whatever you have at each point is your best guess.

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playing 10 handed limit i think 50k hands will determine if you are a winner or not.

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Good point, and it definately depends on the limit too, you know much quicker at 2/4 as he plays than at 30/60.

[Webster]

50K hands or 800 hours in limit will tell you if you are a winner but but not the rate.

For instance - I have a LOT of hands (400,000ish) and I know I'm a 2+BB/100 player. However in my last 40 hours of play I am in the -8BB/100 range. YUP?

Now if this streak hit me when I first started to play I would not have made it past 2000 hands before I payed CIV II but it didn't.

I have ALSO gone 10,000 hands at 6BB/100.

Poker is a VERY streaky game and you really do need a LOT ot time just to know you can win and even then you will always wonder. I know I've been wondering and I have played online for 8 years!

[rjohson]

can some one explain to me what he means by 8BB/100 i see thsat a lot what exactly does that mean does it have something to do with the amount of big bets you win?

[edfurlong]

The number of bets you win over 100 hands.

[Fei]

I can say that I've played 200,000 + hands all short handed. I only play in the NL 6-player cash games and I average 7.5BB/100. The more aggresive you are, the more hands you need to play to establish your earn rate. But for tight players, 5000 hands is a good enough number to know what your earn rate is.

[driller]

At your level of experience there is no real "win rate" its like asking a bug that lives a couple of days what the climate is like.

My personal experience is that at a given limit you can have a win rate of 2 bb/100 for 50k hands, then break even (or worse) for the next 50k.

Concentrate on something else.

[Webster]

Any win rate needs to be justified by table conditions.

In Limit Full ring in low limits with 45% flops a person COULD win 6BD/100. However, once you get over the 1/2 mark wit hthe 35% flops 2BB/100 is what most strive for and at places like WSEX 0BB/100 is doable.

[daddywolf]

CivII? Ok, if it is so streaky.........why do the books and pros act like you can be a winning player each month?

Is it true or is it hype?

[daddywolf]

Concentrate on something else? what does that mean?

a bug? come on now.

My level is 40 plus books. 3 years of internet play. I just started doing a sample test and going back to some basic record keeping.

CAN a BUG do that?

[Arnfinn Madsen]

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CivII? Ok, if it is so streaky.........why do the books and pros act like you can be a winning player each month?

Is it true or is it hype?

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It is not likely to get a losing month, multitabling full time gives you so many hands/month that if you have a decent winrate you will end up in plus for most months, but losing months can very well happen, but more so in limit than in no limit I think (some pros play 30k or less hands a month and for limit it is no oddity for a winning player to have a losing 30k-interval).