MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action

[Thrakkar]

I went through your post again. Since my HU skills are not the best I try to learn as much as I can. Still there are some arguments in your post that I still don't fully understand or disagree with. Enlighten me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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5)since you're a huge dog when I call, your turn bet is essentially a pure bluff. You have five outs if you dont get raised, but the pot is not nearly the size you need it to be to justify that.

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I think I <u>had</u> the necessary odds:[ QUOTE ]
My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

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IOW I'll have to both have and fold a better hand a very high percentage of the time in order to justify the bluff based on the pot size.

7)If instead of betting you were to check, I would bet my entire range, much of which you are still beating. You could at that point choose to just call me down, or to call here and check/fold the river - since I'd have to check behind most of my weaker showdown hands like pps and Ax.


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I think you miss something here: It's not <u>only</u> about you folding a better hand, but also not letting you draw out on me on the river! Put yourself in my shoes for a moment!
From my perspective there are a LOT of scare cards that could fall on the river: 15 = A(4), T(4), 9(4), 2(3)
another 10 cards are no help either: K(3), J(3), 7(4) =&gt; str8!

So 25 out of 46 unknown cards (&gt;50%) will leave me at least guessing about where I stand so <u>I tried to end the hand right here</u>! And according to my calculations (correct me please, if they are wrong) I had a nice overlay of up to ~70% compared to the needed 23%.

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I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack to the turn donk because the turn donk doesnt look like a K. It looks like a J.

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This puzzled me the most! My action was based on the assumption that you would fold a hand that doesn't beat KK and doesn't have the odds to draw. I made a poll, because I'd like to learn if that's how HU works. Personally I think that odds are odds, no matter how many players and if I don't have the odds to draw I should be strongly inclined to fold.
With 5 outs you would need &gt;8.2-to-1 implied odds to continue with your Jx hand vs. a paired king. The pot offered 4.5 BB, so even if you get 2 bets from me on the river it's still 2BB less than needed. So why continue? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

-Thrakkar