Two Plus Two Newer Archives - MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action

Table Sleeman (table comments please)

Str8fish 15bb 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

"Table Sleeman - 3h 6s in position 4 UTG"

Quality hand... only hope of winning (and continuing beyond the flop) I see are key flops... 45x [(4*4*42)*3=672], 66x [(3*2*48)*3=864], 666 [(3*2*1)=6], 33x [(3*2*48)*3=864], 333 [(3*2*1)=6], 663 [(3*2*3)*3=54], 336 [(3*2*3)*3=54], 578 [(4*4*4)*3=192], 789 [(4*4*4)*3=192], A24 [(4*4*4)*3=192], 245- already counted, 36x [(3*3*44)*3=396].

So I will need to hit a total of 3492 flops out of 50*49*48 = 117600 flops. That's 3% of the flops that could possibly occur. In other terms, that's ~32:1. That means that I'd have to have 32 people limp after me in order to make my hand profitable. Last time I counted, there were only 9 people at the table, so unless you're willing to dump money on the table for me Smurf, I guess I have to fold it. I also realize that we won't win on all those flops 100% of the time, especially with the straight draw ones. So further reduce the odds to possibly 40:1.

Here's the output from PokerStove in terms of my hand holding up against 8 other random hands through the entire board:

962,667 games 202.157 secs 4,761 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 07.1463 % 06.28% 00.86% { 6s3h }

So my total equity is 7.1463% = 13:1. This includes the times when I get runner runner straights, trips, 2-pair, etc.

I'm actually surprised how high a number that is. Maybe I'm not taking into account some other stuff. Anyway, I may have made a few math mistakes above, but 3% of a chance of hitting a flop and 7% chance of winning all-around seems reasonable.

I think it's obvious that I fold.

AussieBattler 15bb 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Insta-folds 57s NO comment required.

Stormy455 15bb 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I fold. Q3o does not have enough high card strength, not is it suited or connected. Not good enough to open here

22pajo 15bb 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Table Sleeman
Hand: 4s Th
My action: Fold
Reasons: low card, un suited, a very weak hand.

Bona 15bb 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Bona folds........obvious fold

Al_Money22 15bb Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I'm folding on Sleeman, Q2o is obviously a fold from pretty much all positions

Guruman Button 15bb 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Guruman table Sleeman - I raise.
I have 98o here, but this table folded to me and I have a clear button steal. Winning the blinds will be a coup in a one-orbit match, and I know how to play a steal hand from in position. I probably would have raised this from the cutoff for the same reasons.

Thrakkar .5bb post from SB 15bb 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

my hand: Qh 8s in SB, folds to button who raises

reasoning:

- This is a FOLD for me if SB is only half (or less) of a small bet, but in this case I posted a full small bet!

- Let's look at this situation as if it was a bet that I pair my queen PLUS that my pair holds up. To simplify this even further let's eliminate the kicker problem by including into this bet that nobody else has a queen (thus I would be the only one with a pair of queens).

Here's the math (I'm a bit rusty in this, so I hope I'm doing it right!):

a) chance to hit a flop consisting of at least 1 queen and two cards NOT being an ace or a king (so nobody will pair overcards): 3/50*(52-8-1)/49*(52-8-2)/48*(3*2*1) = 27.6%

b) chance of nobody holding a queen:

b1) 1 opponent: 47/50*46/49 = 88.2%

b2) 2 opponents: 47/50*46/49*45/48*44/47 = 77.4%

c) combined chance of

c1) a) and b1): 24.4% => 3.1 to 1 against

c2) a) and b2): 21.4% => 3.7 to 1 against

d) chance of not seeing an ace or king on the turn / river is 87.2% / 85.1%

=> this means that I have good odds to call down (at least) an opponent betting into me with A-high or K-high

e) So what odds do I get calling here:

e1) BB folds => 4 to 1, this is bigger than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1)

e2) BB calls => 5 to 1, this is bigger than 3.7 to 1 as needed according to c2)

f) Is it worth RAISING to eliminate BB? I would invest 2 bets to get 5 => 2.5 to 1, this is LESS than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1). This also might lead to a reraise by the button what cuts down my odds even more!

g) What if I call and BB raises?

g1) button calls: in all I have to pay 2 bets to get 7 => 3.5 to 1 which is a little less than 3.7 to 1 as needed according to c2)

g2) button folds: I pay 2 to get 6 bets => 3.0 to 1 which is a little less than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1)

In this scenario it's also much more likely that an opponent holds AA or KK, but the possibility of this scenario in itself is quite small in my opinion.

According to these figures a CALL is worth it, but a RAISE is not. I know that I haven't looked at the possibilities of an opponent making a set, str8 or flush! Neither my chances to make 2 pair or better. I wouldn't know how to do the math and just hope that this simplification is NOT critical. I also assumed that button does NOT have AA or KK, which is OK in my opinion since this is a "classical" steal situation (folded to button).

So I call here and pray for NO raise and a good flop (and that my math was correct)!

Bravos1 .5bb post in BB 15bb K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Bravos folds... getting 5:1 OOP in BB w/ Kc4d is not so great especially since SB called. Even if a K flops, I'm not so thrilled about my hand and can easily be dominated.

Thrakkar posts .5bb in SB, Bravos1 posts .5bb in BB, Str8fish folds, Aussiebattler folds, Stormy455 folds, 22pajo folds, bona folds, Al_Money22 folds, Guruman raises, Thrakkar calls, Bravos1 folds

 Flop 5sb (2 players) 

8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Thrakkar checks, Guruman bets, Thrakkar calls

FLOP COMMENTS

Thrakkar:

my hand: paired 8 with Q kicker in SB; HU vs. button who raised PF => 2nd pair on flop of J 8 2 rainbow

pot: 5 SB

I am glad that bravos folds his BB, because a pair of 8s is more likely to be good against one than two opponents. So it's HU now, but I must admit that I suck terribly at HU. Even Ozi beat me in a couple of games we played... =;-)

thinking:

- I expect Guruman to bet if I check it to him, because he was the aggressor PF and I might have easily missed the flop looking from his point of view. He probably thinks that I hold an ace or king and missed that.

a) I am ahead:

- If I am ahead of 2 cards 9 or bigger (no Q), then Guruman has 6 outs to make a better pair. There are no flush draws and the board is not very connected (except if you hold T9 the best you can have is a gutshot). 6 outs translates into necessary implied odds of a little less than 7-to-1. So if I bet I give him 6-to-1 immediate odds and expecting me to bet/call again on the turn drives his implied odds above the necessary 7-to-1. So I can hardly protect my hand by betting here.

- I also think that this flop isn't scary enough (no ace) to induce a fold by betting out. He may well regard that as a fishy bet into a preflop raiser and at least call me down or raise just to probe me.

b) I am behind to a paired J (not QJ) or one of these pocket pairs: AA, KK, TT, 99

- I have 5 outs. This means I need implied odds better than 8.2-to-1. If I check and call a bet I get 6-to-1 plus 1 or 2 BB on the later streets, so calling is OK (and it's not certain that I am behind as he might have tried to steal the blinds with a wide range of hands, so this makes a call even more attractive).

So since a bet won't protect my hand here and check-calling is worth it I will check right now.

This opens the possibilty of a check-raise! So how about that?

c) he calls => I paid 2 bets to gain 7. Sounds too much for me. Yes he might fold, but would he really think I have a set or 2 pair? And if I had it, would I raise on the flop already? Wouldn't I rather try to extract more money out of him and check-raise the turn? So I guess that he will NOT fold to a flop c/r.

d) he reraises => This would put me in an even worse situation.

conclusion: I check with the intention of calling.

Guruman:

Guruman table sleeman, checked to me I bet. I've got a hand here, and though I dont know much about thrakkar [looked up his past posts and he's not incredibly active here yet] I do know that he'll see this as a standard cont bet where I may or may not have total air. If he checkraises I intend to threebet and then go from there.

Thrakkar:

As I wrote before I checked with the intention of calling, so I'll stick to that and call.

 Turn 3.5 bb (2 players) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Thrakkar bets, Guruman folds

TURN COMMENTS

Thrakkar:

Unfortunately this turn did help my hand. Now what shall I do?
thoughts:

Let's find out how many combos Guruman can hold where I am ahead/behind. Also let's have a look how many combos he can hold that he would possibly fold if he "knew" that I just paired the king on the flop, because he has less than 7 outs (if I bet now and bet/call on the river he gets 3 bets from me plus 3.5 already in the pot = 6.5-to-1 which translates into 7 outs or more).

a) total combos: 1,035 =46*45*0.5

b) combos where we draw: 6

c) combos where he is ahead: 282

AA (6), KK (2), QQ (2), JJ (2), TT (6), 99 (6), 88 (1), 22 (2), Kx (129), QJ (9), Jx (111), 82 (6)

c1) combos in c) that have 6 outs or less vs. a paired king in my hand: 119

QQ (2), TT (6), 99 (6), QJ (9), Jx except J8&J2 (96)

c2) combos in c) and NOT in c1) that I can draw out on with 5 outs: 111

AA (6), Kx (105)

d) combos where I am ahead and where at least one card is 8 or higher or where cards are suited (less than that he would probably have folded preflop): 531 = 747-(24*23*0.5)+4*(5+4+3+2+1)

d1) thereof combos that have 7 outs or more vs. a paired king in my hand: 81

QT (12), T9 (16), 2 diamonds: Ax (10), Qx (8), Jx (8), Tx (6), 9x (6), 8x (5), 7x (4), 6x (3), 5x (2), 43 (1)

Now let's try some math:

e) how likely is he to call if I bet (he is either ahead of a pair of kings in my hand or has odds to draw out): ~30% = (282-119+81)/(6+282+531) = 244/819

f) out of the 163 (=282-119) combos in e) I can draw out about 10.9% of the times of 111 combos => approx. 12 combos

g) out of the 81 combos in e) he does NOT make his draw in about 15% => approx. 12 combos

h) so from the 244 combos he will probably call with he will win with about 220 of them (244-12-12)

i) so what is my expectation on the turn bet?

i1) I bet, he folds: 70% = (819-244)/819

i2) I bet, he calls, I don't draw out: 27% = 244/819*220/244

i3) I bet, he calls, I draw out: 3%

It's very clear, that my chances of winning are very slim in case he calls. Therefore I should not call a turn raise, even if I suspected him very much to bluff.

My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

Call it a semi-bluff or a re-steal - I bet!

-Thrakkar

Guruman:

guruman table sleeman thrakkar stop on goes on a king. I fold.

I'm not sure how much wiggle thrakkar has in his game. he has to be on a pure bluff a pretty high percentage of the time (36% if we assume he'll have to bluff the river as well) and this board combined with my action makes me think that he's got to have a real hand here a much higher chunk than that. I think that folding here may hurt my action on some of my other tables, but I've really got no choice when you consider the fact that I can't win this one. If we were going to play 300 hands I'd call down to get a better read, but in this format I've got to do what I've got to do.

 Hand is completed Thrakkar wins – Bravos1 loses .5bb Guruman loses 1.5bb Thrakkar wins 2 bb