Top10 college teams (10/4/2006)

[lastchance]

A decisive win against quality opponents does matter. A decisive win against inferior opponents matters as well. So does a squeaker against an inferior team.

By predictor, I mean Sagarin Predictor, the computer-generated ranking which does a better job of quantifying each and every game, rebalancing SOS, taking into account margin of victory, all of that than most of us do (save Vegas).

That one decisive win tells you a lot, but every game should be telling. And that 1 point win against Air Force is worse than any of Cal's wins over inferior competition. Small edges pile up.

And note: These teams are all so close that it can be argued either way. More games will clear things up.

[Clayton]

fwiw I am a Georgia fan and I think GT is a better team right now. Going into the game versus Tenn. I figured we were a top 25 team, but definitely not top ten. Our seconary running a soft cover 2 is so very exploitable by good passing offenses, and our quarterback situation is atrocious. Joe T simply does not make good throws or decisions, and Stafford and Cox need more experience.

[lastchance]

GT being overrated is mostly based on how the ACC sucks as a whole. Because I think Notre Dame is horribly overrated, that loss becomes a lot worse than most think it.

Troy sucks, Virginia sucks, Samford sucks, Maryland isn't that good. A 4 point win there is really not indicative of a top 25 team, let alone a top 10 team.

They really have the VT win and a good win against Virginia, and nothing else. The ND loss and 4 point Maryland win are not games that show any strength. I mean, top 20 is a joke here.

Georgia's probably close, they're hovering around top 30. Yeah, top 15's a joke given the Colorado and Ole Miss win.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Texas wins:
56-7
52-7
37-14
56-3
28-10

Tennessee wins:
33-7
41-7
51-33
35-18
31-30

Basically, Texas has dominated more than Tennessee, despite Tenn's tougher schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me help.

Cal > Oklahoma
Georgia > Iowa State
Air Force > Rice
Marshall > North Texas
Memphis > Sam Houston State

It's quite simple.

[lastchance]

17 point win over Cal > 14 point win over Oklahoma.
18 point win over Georgia > 23 point win over ISU.
1 point win over Air Force < 40+ point win over Rice.
26 point win over Marshall < 49 point win over North Texas.
34 point win over Memphis = 53 point win over SHS.

Quantify those, and I think it's very close. I mean, I'm certainly not married to this, but I think Texas is at least as good as Tenn is. Really, it's just one or two spots, IMHO. I mean, it's not like ND getting placed right behind these teams compared to where they should be.

[tdarko]

lastchance,

FWIW, I think it is close as well--like the difference between 7 and maybe 9 or 10 or even Texas at 8. But the 26 point win over Marshall is better than any margin of victory over UNT and the 34 point win over Memphis is better than slaugthering a team that isn't even Div 1A. I don't think you actually realize how bad UNT is and they could have beat them 100-0 and it wouldn't have meant anything other than the "Mean Green" gave up at half time and didn't want any part of a real team. You simply cannot gauge anything from beating up on UNT and a "great throwing" AA school (Sam Houston) that just doesn't do what it does well this year but this game may have been a push if the NCAA would have cleared Rhett Bomar.

[Vince Young]

[ QUOTE ]
Still I don't understand how you (Vince) can think Cal should be ranked higher than Tenn when Tenn beat the piss out of them; makes zero sense.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was being sarcastic, I don't think Cal should be ahead of Tenn or Texas.

[Russ M.]

How did WV get 2 first place votes in the AP poll? Misclicks?

[lastchance]

Marshall is pretty goddamn bad. They very well could be a I-AA team, a good I-AA team, but a I-AA team nonetheless. They're only about 2 TD's better than North Texas, which is less than the difference in victory between those two teams. Ditto w/ Memphis and SHS.

Meh, I'll agree for now, let's see how the season plays out.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Marshall is pretty goddamn bad. They very well could be a I-AA team, a good I-AA team, but a I-AA team nonetheless. They're only about 2 TD's better than North Texas, which is less than the difference in victory between those two teams. Ditto w/ Memphis and SHS.

Meh, I'll agree for now, let's see how the season plays out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to do this, because it's hard to quantify. However, I will.

Tennessee's win over Cal could have easily been 49-0. Tennessee's win over Georgia could have easily been 45-17.

Texas's 28-10 victory over Oklahoma is very very very misleading. Probably more like 20-14 Texas.

Still, from watching the games and looking at resumes, Tennessee CLEARLY (and IMO, this cannot be realistically argued) has a better 6 week resume than Texas. Will that change after weeks 7,8,9 etc? Easily.