The poker gods giveth and they taketh away

[Grunch]

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sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

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To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

[poincaraux]

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sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

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To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

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Hey Grunch (or any other mod, of course), shouldn't this be in the main sticky somewhere prominent?

[KaiserSose]

I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

[notevenhere]

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Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

[KaiserSose]

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Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

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Well..hero was button so his raise could really be anything, including hands that have a 9 in it. His range here is a lot wider then just top pair, overpair type of hands. I don't know maybe I'm just a little weak when it comes to being out of position and I'm too quick to assume others are too. If I were villain I wouldn't exclude a made straight, full house, or rivered flush from hero's range of hands and knowing those were all possibilities, I wouldn't want to lead into him with trips knowing he can come over the top and put me at a difficult decision for all of my chips.

Edit: Sorry I didn't really answer your question. I was just trying to explain why I wouldn't lead into him with trips on the river. Also, I fold K-10/A-10 on the turn.

[FishNChips]

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I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips

[fish43]

>>list hands that villain could play this way:

I think JJ, TT could be played like this by a passive player.

>>JT[,QT] : ... doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?<<

The villian is out of position and in blind defense mode with a board that has 1 card straight and a FD. I think passive a c/c plan is a reasonable line until his full house hits on the river.

[Nielsio]

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I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips

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AK and T9 don't play like this, ever.

[FishNChips]

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I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips

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AK and T9 don't play like this, ever.

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I didn't list AK because I don't think villain has AK here, ever.
T9 you're right, I forgot that the flop was QJ8, so remove that from villain's range.

Still - are we not good 35% of the time here? Isn't that all we need for this to be a good call? There's not a 35% chance that villain had either KT / QJ / AT / A9 / X9 / bluff? We know that we're not good here 80% of the time, we're not good 60% of the time, we're not good here 50% of the time, but 35%, that's all we have to be good - against an unknown defending his blind who probably doesn't give hero credit for more than TPTK since it was a blind steal situation and might think that hero is just firing 2 barrels and now he wants his 2 pair or backdoor trips to get paid off.

I don't think that folding is an aweful option. I just think that we're good often enough for this to be profitable. I could be wrong.

~FishNChips

[poincaraux]

So, I somehow forgot that we had the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and was thinking there are a lot more combinations of A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. If I work through your range,

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2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

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OK, so if we give him Ksxs but rule out Ks9s, we have Ks2s, Ks3s, Ks4s, Ks5s, Ks6s, Ks7s, Ks8s for 7 combinations. If we throw in some suited connectors like 7s8s, 6s7s, 5s6s, we have 10 combinations here.

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AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

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I don't see how you think that Ks9s and 9s8s play strong, but T9 for the flopped straight on a two-flush board where the opponent is likely to have overs doesn't, so let's limit this to AT and KT. We have 6 combinations of KT and 6 combinations of 9T for 12 combinations here.

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JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

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Well, OK, if you think villain can't have any of the hands that make a boat+ (88, QQ, JJ, T8, JT, QT, TT for a total of 28 combinations), then you're actually ahead of his range and it's an instacall.

If you give him all of the boat+ hands, you're ahead of 12 combinations and behind 38 combinations, or 3.17:1. You're getting 2.44:1, so it's a fold. If you think he can have half of the boat hands, you're 24:12, and it's a call.

I guess it does come down to your reads on unknown villains. I just think that an unknown villain with this action is more likely to have spade/boat+ hands than you do, and less likely to have the trips hands than you do. I dunno, though .. I think it's certainly closer than I originally thought. And, I could probably be swayed, because I don't play the $200 games.

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I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

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WHOA! Only hands that you beat now?? What happened to everything else in his range above?