($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?

[Bazuul]

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No, you are playing correctly, they are not...

Just out of curiosity, how would you play JJ if you were the villain in this situation?

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I'd PFR to 85, call a min-raise depending on the minraiser, fold to any re-re-raisers. Cbet the flop. Take it from there.

How about you?

[ontiltsoon]

I would fold...
I think his 4xBB bet means he dosen't want lot of action. I would put him on 88-99, AQo, AJo.
As you called he will probably put you on TT or suited big cards, with AA or KK you would probably have re-raised.
With that flop he can put you on an inside straight draw and a flush draw if you have de big suited cards. So you from his point of view you have lots of outs, big cards, clubs and treys. So he'd rather bet a pot size bet to give you only 2 to 1 pot odds and see if he takes the pot there.
And if he didn't have the mid pair and had two big cards, he did a nice continuation bet.

[zabt]

With a flush draw a possibility, a near pot sized bet isn't unusual, is it? Even without a flush draw, I would have assumed anything from about 2/3 to pot is about standard. Isn't it?

[elmitchbo]

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I think by cold calling this, you really butchered it. If he is truly a 30/15 I shove here as you his range definatly includes KJ, AJ and AQ.

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I don't understand this range. How are you using those stats to include a raise of this magnitude?

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my stats are in that neighborhood and i would raise 4x with those hands no problem.

raise of this magnitude? i never make a raise that's less than 4x in any position.

i reraise with AK and call a push.

if i'm the villain and a made the preflop raise with AJs or something similar and just got called that's exactly the continuation bet i would make.

[elmitchbo]

if you think his bet means he doesn't want action why do you fold?

i thought it was smart to play into someone that didn't want action. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Jonathan]

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Thanks for the heads up, Unbreakable and Seadood228. I would never 4x w/ 88-JJ from UTG. Is this a leak?

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Yes, Definitely. It means that every time you raise
4BB UTG, your opponents know that you don't have a medium
or small pair. That is just too much information to be
giving away, and is too easy to play against.

OP....I think that reraising PF would simplify your life.

The flop is an easy fold.

Suerte,
Jonathan

[ontiltsoon]

We are not talking about folding before the flop....

[soma_]

I think this is something straight out of Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Essentially, it's such a close gamble so early in the SNG, I fold so that I open myself up to more profitable situations later in the game. The problem with pushing the flop is that you don't fold any hands you want to, and if you call you're committing over 25% of your stack to this play. And depending on what the turn may bring, you are going to be hard pressed. Most of your equity comes from seeing both the turn and the river, and I don't think you'll get a cheap free card here. Fold.

Board: 2d 4c 5c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1816 % 37.27% 08.91% { AsKs }
Hand 2: 53.8184 % 44.91% 08.91% { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }

EDIT: As always, if there's a flaw with my thinking, please let me know.