Wa/Wb - TT - Correct Betting?

[pineapple888]

With just one non-Ace overcard, this is a very easy bet on the flop.

You are likely to have the best hand, but it is his highly vulnerable (you are NOT way ahead), so you should be eager to bet.

If called, then just try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible, and fold to significant heat.

[elmitchbo]

i'll be the Wa/Wb police here. i feel like i've typed this alot lately, but here i go again....

if you're ahead betting/raising is the correct play. if your behind folding is the correct play. players often call as a compromise between the two. calling isn't the correct play in either situation. it is better to choose one of the options that can be potentailly correct than to choose the option that is almost certainly incorrect.

i would raise preflop. reasonable chance that the QJ folds. you were actually in postion on the flop and it was checked to you.... gotta stick in a bet there. if you get reraised you can evaluate from there.

[fatmanonguitar]

Thanks. Well said.

I will add:

Calling also leaves you with the same uncertainty on the next street.

[microbet]

In this hand, as has been pointed out, you are not really Wa/Wb because you are vulnerable when ahead.

When you are really Wa/Wb there are certainly benefits to calling down. You catch bluffs from the Wb hands and can lose less from the Wa hands. When you are quite possibly behind, but can't fold because of the size of the post, and have very little FE, I think calling down is also good.

I tend to play more like you are talking about and try to take down pots when I think I'm ahead or check/fold if I think I'm behind, but I do think compromise can be correct.

Unarmed?

[fatmanonguitar]

Let's put this to a hypothetical:

You are holding AKo and the flop is KTT. For some reason you have narrowed down his holdings to either a ten or a weaker K with equivalent probablility.

How do you play if you are first to act?

How do you play if he is and 1/2 pots it? checks to you?

[microbet]

I don't really know and I don't think you can figure it out just by reasoning it because you don't know how villian will react. Will villian's reraise mean he has the ten or not? Will villian bet the weaker king at you? How slowly will villian play the T if you check?

If you know villian well enough it's easy, but knowing them that well is all but impossible.

On average, this looks like you lose less and win more if you check/call with the possibility of check/folding if the pot is small and villian makes you think the T is more likely. It's not that you can't be making a mistake this way, but it seems like the potential mistakes of betting out (folding the weak K or getting bluffed off by a reraise) are worse.

There are other factors of course. The pot size compared to our stacks will be relevant and how close we are to the bubble will have a big effect too. For example, if I'm 2nd stack, he's big stack, and there are two shorties around, there's no way I'm taking big risks here.

Anyway, I haven't quite gotten through thinking about this, but I'll have to post it as I've got to go. Hope I didn't say anything too stupid.

[async]

Make it T60 preflop unless the table is loose/passive. I don't mind limping here against a table full of calling stations, with an eye on doubling through a TPTK sort of hand with a set. Checked around on the flop, you probably have the best hand and should bet.

[AliasMrJones]

I'd bet the flop. Otherwise, I like it.