Top two pair very deep vs nit - uh ohz

[RainbowBright]

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I'd check the turn because I'd hate to get check-raised. I don't think any worse hands really call the turn because it looks like both you and the CO could be drawing. So I'd much rather check the turn and see how the CO acts and the UTG (if the CO bets.)

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I don't like checking the turn at all. I feel like I can bet the turn and easily fold to a raise from UTG and CO is barely even a factor at this point, he can't really do anything to affect the outcome of the hand, except that UTG knows I'm never bluffing the turn with CO shortstack behind me, so if I get raised (which he really should only do with a flush, and a big one) it's a pretty easy fold I think. But my hand looks very much like a flush myself so it's not like he is going to c/r me with air or turn AQ into a bluff etc.

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I think you made an argument for checking the turn. By betting the turn you're turning your hand into a bluff. I don't think any worse hand calls, do you?

So if your bet is not for value than it has to be a bet for protection against a lone heart coming. Which although a possibility, I think you have to be more worried about OP or the CO having a flush draw.

And if in fact OP has a made flush then not getting a look at a free card on the river that could bust him when your this deep is very bad.

However, since it's much more likely that the CO has the made flush, betting might not be as bad as I make it out to be because it might work as a blocking bet and slow the CO down.

(I just reread the OP and saw the CO stack size. This makes things a little more awkward for my argument.)

* The only reason I could see the UTG calling your turn bet with a worse hand is because you didn't reraise preflop and so AK has to be at the top of your range preflop. But I think this is wishful thinking given that since you called preflop it's just as likely for you to have a made flush as a weak Ace.

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I think UTG check-raises the turn about 0-1% of the time, because he is only going to do that with a flush and given his stats he should show up with two suited hearts next to never. But he could definitely have AQ/AJ with a heart or something that he might call the turn with, so I think there is definetely value in a turn bet. I really don't want to let a random pair + FD get there.

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good point.