am I a winning player?

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as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

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(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)



In HU, I find that you can tell fairly accurately how good you are based on your comfort level / control of the match. If you have a clear plan for every opponent and are only taken out of your comfort zone by a few very good / ultraaggro opponents, then there's no way you are not a winner except perhaps at $550s+, but even there you can find plenty of fish to pad the win%.

Assuming you are a good player with clear gameplans against every opponent, there is essentially a distribution where a portion of them are complete fish with huge holes that you should be able to beat ~90%+ of the time, and then some players vs. whom your edge is very slight / marginal, and probably negative when not playing your A game. And then there are players in the middle with slight holes that are not big enough for you to withstand a very cold deck.

If you were to know roughly this distribution, you could fairly accurately determine your winrate without playing any statistically significant number of games.

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I disagree with a number of your points.

First of all, it is very hard to win 90 percent of games against a given opponent, even if he is a horrible fish. Even pushing w/ AA preflop and getting called gives you about 80 percent to win. So are you relying on villian maing horrible river calls??

Second, "having a feel" for your skills isn't a good metric. Many fish believe themselves to be excellent. Also, one might feel like a good player because he got lucky and sat with a few fish or had a good run of cards. It's hard to have any sort of certainty about these types of things.

So, in conclusion, the best way to tell if you are a winning player is to play 30+ games and analyze the results using statistics.