The 2008 Campaign has begun

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president?

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As it is right now, you can probably make a short list candidates from each party with a very real shot of running and winning the nomination. While an "official announement" is a nice way to spill some ink and get some face time, you can narrow down the possible field right now, regardless of an official announcement -- running for President is a lengthy process and many have been getting their organizations, fund-raisers, PACs, strategy teams, etc. in place for a quite a while now:



Democrats Almost Certainly Running:
Sen. Clinton
former Sen. Edwards
Gov. Vilsack
Sen. Bayh
Sen. Feingold
Wesley Clark
Gov. Richardson

Democrats Maybe Running But With No Real Shot of Winning the Nomination:
Sen. Kerry
Sen. Biden
Sen. Dodd

Wildcards:
former VP Gore
Sen. Obama

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GOPers Almost Certainly Running:
Sen. McCain
Gov. Romney
Gov. Huckabee
former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich

GOPers Maybe Running But With No Real Short of Winning the Nomination:
former Sen. Allen
Sen. Hagel
Sen. Brownback
former Sen. Frist
Rep. Tancredo

Wilcards:
Gov. Jeb Bush
Sec. State Rice

I think this is pretty comprehensive. If I've left anyone out, they likely fall under the "No Real Shot of Winning" groups, with the caveat that Howard Dean was relatively unkown and a huge long shot to win the '04 Dem. Nomination in the autumn of 2002. He obviously didn't win, but it's hard to say he didn't become very relevant in the nomination process.

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Vilsack, Feingold and Richardson might belong in the "no real shot of winning" camp. I don't mean to sounds like a cynic, but they all seem like the classic "5th place in the New Hampshire primary" candidate. Plus Dems will have at least one (HRC) and possibly 2-3 huge names running, which kills fundraising efforts.

Wesley Clark is in the "wild card" category as far as I know.

Duncan Hunter is running for the Republicans but has no shot at winning.

Pataki should be listed somewhere on the Republican side but I don't know which category he belongs in.

In terms of most-to-least likely to become our next president, we're probably looking at:

1) McCain (R)
2) Clinton (D)
3) Giuliani (R)
4) Obama (D)
5) Gore (D)
6) Edwards (D)
7) Romney (R)
8) Huckabaee (R)
9) Bayh (D)
10) Gingrich (R)