Hand from the ME of the World Poker Open

[Lloyd]

First, pre-flop, I don't think I like your call simply because you don't have the implied odds. I believe you'll flop two pair or better (or some type of pair/draw combo) somewhere in the 4-5% range. I would only make that call if I had at least 20 to 1 implied odds. Beyond that nothing looks too off pre-flop although I'm sure seat 6 was hoping to have the hand re-raised. This would particularly be true if seat 5 was laggy. Seat 6 could be hoping to trap someone making a squeeze play.

I think I'd lead out there if I flopped trips a good percentage of the time expecting some action from a pair of 8s or better. On the flop, seat's 5 action makes sense. I'm assuming seat 6 is looking at this as a way ahead/way behind hand so he checks hoping to continue the trap or see how things develop as cheaply as possible.

On the turn, the initial bet from seat 5 obviously makes sense now that he makes top pair. The seat 6 push also makes sense as he's probably not too worried about 5 having a 7 and is only behind JJ and QQ. 5 may or may not bet with JJ or QQ here - possible but probably unlikely as everyone showed a lot of weakness on the flop. So he's probably putting 5 squarely on KQ, AQ, QJ maybe even a semi-bluff with AK or KT. Your push makes sense. When it gets back to 5 he's getting nearly 2.9 to 1 odds requring only 26% pot equity to make the call about right. I say only because it appears that he's getting good odds but he's got to think he's lucky to have 5 outs so he's like 10% to improve here and has nowhere near the necessary equity.

My conclusion: seat 6s action makes perfect sense but seat 5 way overplayed his hand.