Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question

[David Sklansky]

sklansky,

"these are all math questions once you assign all the probabilites and tell us exactly how our opponents will act with which cards."

They are supposed to be math problems. But unlike some of my others, I postulated a strategy similar to how an actual tight, tricky, player might play (I think you might not have realized his Aks are suited.) It has always been my stance that assigning probabilities is not something easily taught but those who are good at it are still doomed if they don't know how to translate their assignments into the right play.

"when stacks get deep against a very good player, you dont want to be calling/reraising with KK when your opponent is only full of it 10% of the time."

Even though you have a good hand that is clearly favored to be best? Only one other poster agrees with you. So how can you not think this is a good question?

[DoomSlice]

[ QUOTE ]
you see this is your problem..... you delve too much into this %age crap.... start going into a little more psychology and hand reading and your results will improve.

Stop wasting time with this crap.

10% this 8% that, blahh blahh blahh...... are you serious cuz?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're joking right? Sklansky always has been, and always will be, (rightfully so) all about the math.

If you're not able to make the right play even with all of these numbers, then you'll never build up to your full potential.

[kagame]

kane is pulling your chain sir

sorry guys, its just too painful!

[bugman68]

i think this is a good question and leads to why position is so important in nl with any hand that you have. I have yet to hear an answer from anyone on this site. Personally I do not take math into the equation here as much as i should and because of it my play probably is not the positive ev that others might have. I smooth call with kk in this spot and then depending on what is on the flop i check 80 percent of the time to see how his betting pattern is comparable to other times I have played against him when he has had aa shown down in those situations.

[Leviathan]

hum, please give me a few minutes
looks like i came to something
but my answer will be a bit long
pleae david, no answer for 15 minutes!

[hfrog355]

Agreed.

I have no problem pushing KK preflop. You will get sucked out on and you will hit aces eventually, but the majority of the time you will be way ahead.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd really like to know the "right" answer to this as this situation occurs almost every day when u play a lot of hands

[/ QUOTE ]

no it doesnt.

1) you normally dont know the exact range your opponents have
2) you know nowhere near the percentages they will call you with
3) METAGAME: people dont play hands solely on percentages (maybe you won a big pot off them recently, maybe they are tilting today or think you are, w/e)
4) People usually have glaring flaws in situations like this (even the good ones), however the better someone is the quicker they realize their flaws and the quicker they will adjust to change their flaws (maybe call too much instead of fold too much or vice versa).

Basically what i'm trying to say is that there is no "perfect" way to play poker. You could program a computer to play "perfectly" however you determined that was, and i guarantee almost every player here could beat it at NLHE cash fairly quickly because they can adjust and a computer cant. This is why there are no good books for high stakes no limit cash, and why no1 is ever worried about high stakes NL cash bots.

Poker is a game of incomplete information, and the thing that differentiates good players from bad, is not only being able to use the information they have better, but also being able to attain more information on their opponents, and the situation which they are in.

[Leviathan]

hello david
i think i'll be the first one to post a complete mathematical solution.
I hope it's your solution too but, even if it's not, please take the time to read my entire post. It took me much time to come to it and i'd like your opinion on why it works/doesn't work.
A pb here is that people are afraid to have to enumerate all possible flops/boards/possible plays by vilain when he merely calls. The way i evaluate the different possibilities (fold/call/small raise/big raise) won't face this issue as you will see.
0. Pre calculations
Hand__times
AKs 2
AA 6
KK 1
QQ 6
JJ 3 (because vilain will make this play with only HALF JJ)
goofy 2
goofy has to be 10% of the total, hence 2. total=20 hands

1.Hero folds
EV=0 (we consider our 100$ are already lost, the fold decision doesn't cost us more)

2.Hero 3bets big
Something like 100=>500=>1500 (pot reraise)

__2.1Vilain 4bets big (here it means all in): should hero call?
_____2.1.Hero folds ro Vilain's all in reraise
EV=-1.400
_____2.1.1Hero calls all in

Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__1,6__0.66__7035__4643__3400___1243_____22,2%_ _276
AA __4,8__0,18__7035__1266__3400___-2134____66,7%__-1422
KK___0,8__0,50__7035__3518__3400___117,5____11,1%_ _13

Explanations:
=>AKs 1,6 times among 1,6+4,8+0,8=7,2 possible hands, so probability of this hand=1,6/7,2=22,2%.
=>Prob win=net win x probability of this hand IN THIS SCENARIO (=among hands vilain will shove with)

EV=276-1422+13=-1133$
So, in case vilain shoves, Hero MUST CALL ALL IN.
Vilain will shove 7,2 times out of 20 (36%)
So the EV of 2.1 will contribute for 36% (-408$) for the total EV of the hand, if played under 2. scenario (hero 3 bets big).

__2.2 Vilain folds (ship it kid!)

Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
QQ___6____1_____635___635___0______635_____54,5%__ 346
JJ ___3____1_____635___635___0______635_____27,3%__17 3
goo___2___1_____635___635___0______635_____18,2%__ 115

EV=346+173+115=635$
Vilain will chicken out 11 times out of 20 (55%)
Contribution of 2.2 for 2.= 0.55x635=349$

__2.3 Vilain calls
Here is the "secret" to avoid enumerating boards: i suppose that hero and vilain have equavalent skills and noone will create EV (in the long run) after the flop. So, the EV of Hero's hand just depends of it's preflop EV and of the size of the pot just before the flop is dealt.
3 things tell me that this hypothesis can't be exactly true:
i/Vilain has a positionnale advantage (advantage Vilain)
ii/Hero has info on the hands Vilain can hold (advantage Hero)
iii/some of vilain's possible holdings work better when all in preflop. Like AKs: most of the tme vilain will miss the flop and will have to fold to hero's bet. Hero's advantage.
So, my hypothesis equals to saying that i and [ii + iii] perfectly neutalize each other. We will see later that it won't always be true.
Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__0,4__0.66__3035__2003__1400___603______22,2%_ _134
AA __1,2__0,18__3035__546___1400___-854_____66,7%__-569
KK___0,2__0,50__3035__1518__1400___117,5____11,1%_ _13


EV=134-569+13=-422$
Vilain calls 1,8 times out of 20 (9%)
Contribution of 2.3 for 2.= 0.09x(-422)=-39$

Final EV of 2. (Hero 3bets big)= -408 + 349 - 38 = -97$
First conclusion: between fold and raise big, hero should fold (loss=0$ after the firts raise, or -100$ after cards are dealt).

Strategy 3 (raise small) in next post

[Leviathan]

**Calculations part 2**

3.Hero 3bets small
Something like 100=>500=>900
Because there's no difference in David's post between small raise and min raise, i suppose that hero will min raise. That way, he earns the same info on vilain's possible holding but puts at risk a minimum amount.

__3.1Vilain 4bets big (here it means all in): should hero call?
_____3.1.1.Hero folds to Vilain's all in reraise
EV=-800
_____3.1.2.Hero calls all in
To make it simple, i suppose that goofy hand has the same chance of winning than a smaller pocket pair.
Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__0,4__0.66__7035__4643__3400___1243_____8,7%__ _276
AA __3____0,18__7035__1266__3400___-2134____66,2%__-1392
KK___0,1__0,50__7035__3518__3400___117,5____2,2%__ _3
QQ___0,6__0,82__7035__5769___3400___2369___13,0%__ 309
JJ ___0,3__0,82__7035__5769__3400___2369____6,5%____1 54
goo__0,2__0,82__7035___5769___3400___2369___4,4%__ __103

EV=108-1392+3+309+154+103=-714$
>-800$ so hero should call if vilain shoves.
Vilain shoves 4,6 times out of 20 (23%)
Contribution of 3.1 to 3.= 0.23x(-714)=-164$

__3.2. Vilain calls

Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__1,6__0.66__1835__1211__800___411_____10,4%___ 43
AA __3____0,18__1835__330__800___-470_____19,5%___-92
KK___0,9__0,50__1835__918___800___118_____5,8%____ 7
QQ___5,4__0,82__1835_1505___800___705____35,1%___2 47
JJ ___2,7__0,82__1835__1505__800___705____11,7%___82
goo__1,8__0,82__1835__1505___800__705____11,7%___8 2

EV=43-92+7+247+124+82=411$
Vilain calls 15,4 times out of 20 (77%)
Contribution of 3.2 to 3.= 0.77x(411)=317$

Final EV of 3. (Hero 3bets small)= -164 + 317 = +153$
Second conclusion: between fold, raise big, and raise small, hero should reraise small (win=153$ after the first raise, or +53$ (+2,12 big blinds) after cards are dealt).

[Leviathan]

**Calculations part 3 (the end)**

4.Hero calls
Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__2____0.66__1035__683___400___283_____10%_____ 43
AA __3____0,18__1035__186___400___-214_____30%_____-92
KK___1____0,50__1035__518___400___118_____5%______ 7
QQ___6____0,82__1035_849____400___449____30%_____2 47
JJ ___3____0,82__1035__849___400___449____15%_____82
goo__3____0,82__1035__849___400___449____10%_____8 2

EV=28-64+6+135+67+45=217$

Final EV of 4. (Hero calls)= +217$ (+117 just after cards are dealt).
Just calling seems to be the best decision.
BUT, as david stated, vilain will put Hero on a good hand. So, this time, not only do we have info on his hand, but he also have info on ours. Combined with his positional advantage over Hero, he may be able to outplay Hero postflop and so the EV of strategy 4 maybe much lower than what we came to.

So strategy 3 (small reraise) is likely to be the best choice, EV wise.
Now, have i won anything ?
(a 2+2 book would be greatly appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

ps: please tell me if i made errors/mistypes, writing this post was a pain, i can have mistyped a few figures.