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#11
11-09-2006, 03:20 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
Right now, I think this is a bad trade for SD. Barfield has already proven himself at the MLB level, his MiLB track record is pretty good, and he plays 2B.
Kouz has proven he can dominate AA as a 25 year old, and play a below average 3B defensively. Brown throws really hard, but can't hit the broadside of a barn. If Kouz can improve defensively and hit .280 with plus power, and [if]if[/i] Brown can harness his command, this trade might work out to be even. 
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#12
11-09-2006, 03:34 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
I know what you're saying and I don't disagree with you. However, if we're going to talk about two players and guess who will be better next year, then the first place to look is last year's stats.
Without digging really deep into the numbers, I would look at WS as a single number that will give some indication of how well they played overall last year. As a first order approximation, that's an imperfect but okay guess of what they might do next year. Now, if I really wanted to spend an hour cooking up a prediction for next year's stats, then I would try to remove non-sustainable impacts like BA in play and BA with RISP, and probably focus in on their "core" hitting stats like HR, SO, BB per PA, probably make some attempt to trend these forward based on current ages. But just looking at WS was enough, IMO, to say "these players were of roughly equivalent value last year, so it isn't clear that switching Giles for Barfield is an upgrade or not". I understand your point, but I am not claiming that last year's WS is the ultimate stat and that it completely describes how good these guys will be next year. Besides, Giles had a better BA with RISP so he's more clutch and therefore a better team player, too. He is also a scrappier player with more hustle. Just kidding.
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#13
11-09-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
- Brown had no options left
- Barfield's very solid numbers came in San Diego. Park factor is nuts. - SD could hold hope that reuniting Giles with his big bro will put his drinking in its place.
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#14
11-09-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
In all likelihood Kouz will be a better player for the next year or two than Barfield, who I don't see as much of an upgrade over the in-house options for Cleveland at 2b, although he does have more upside because he is younger.
I think this trade is about even.
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#15
11-10-2006, 08:54 AM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
Cleveland mgt and press are playing up the park factor bigtime in their justifications for the deal. Saying the short right field and humidity are going to up his HR totals.
KJS
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#16
11-10-2006, 09:25 AM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland mgt and press are playing up the park factor bigtime in their justifications for the deal. Saying the short right field and humidity are going to up his HR totals. KJS [/ QUOTE ] In 2006 Barfield hit 6 HR in 280 PA* at home and 7 HR in 289 PA* on the road. So obviously he will hit 30 now that he's away from SD! Or not. *Excludes HBP, so not really PA but close enough.
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#18
11-10-2006, 04:43 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW Barfield's road numbers are MUCH better than his home numbers. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I know. I am making reference specifically to the claim that he will hit more HR now that he doesn't play in SD, even though his HR rate was the same there as it was away. Also, if SD's park was really "stealing" a bunch of his HR you would expect that he would have a lot of doubles at home, but he didn't. Furthermore, his hitting on the road was "better" primarily due to the fact that his BA on balls in play was much higher, and that is almost exclusively due to luck.
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#19
11-10-2006, 08:08 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] FWIW Barfield's road numbers are MUCH better than his home numbers. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I know. I am making reference specifically to the claim that he will hit more HR now that he doesn't play in SD, even though his HR rate was the same there as it was away. Also, if SD's park was really "stealing" a bunch of his HR you would expect that he would have a lot of doubles at home, but he didn't. Furthermore, his hitting on the road was "better" primarily due to the fact that his BA on balls in play was much higher, and that is almost exclusively due to luck. [/ QUOTE ] stadiums affect BABIP
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#20
11-10-2006, 08:22 PM
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Re: Barfield to the Indians...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] FWIW Barfield's road numbers are MUCH better than his home numbers. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I know. I am making reference specifically to the claim that he will hit more HR now that he doesn't play in SD, even though his HR rate was the same there as it was away. Also, if SD's park was really "stealing" a bunch of his HR you would expect that he would have a lot of doubles at home, but he didn't. Furthermore, his hitting on the road was "better" primarily due to the fact that his BA on balls in play was much higher, and that is almost exclusively due to luck. [/ QUOTE ] stadiums affect BABIP [/ QUOTE ] What he said, and I can almost guarantee you Barfield hits more homers this year than he did last year assuming he gets 600 PA's.
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