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#21
10-03-2006, 02:38 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am suprised so many people say fold. First of all, this is the second hour of the $10 rebuy. Secondly, villain made a huge overbet, which is less likely to be a big pair. I think this is usually AK or JJ/QQ. I call this. [/ QUOTE ] we do not have the odds to call against a range of JJ/QQ/AK. but thanks for stopping by. [/ QUOTE ] You are calling 25400 to win 30200, 1.19-1, putting in 45.6% of the money. You are 45.9% against AK, JJ, QQ. Obviously, there is a question of how often this is AQ or something and how often it is AA/KK. This is sort of a question of do I want to take an even gamble for all my chips. However, I think that in the 2nd hour of the 10 rebuy it is 2 high cards often enough to call. Anyway, you do have odds against the JJ,QQ,AK. I appreciate your expertise with odds, and thanks for stopping by. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 431,500,608 games 0.517 secs 834,624,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.8745 % 25.29% 20.58% { AKo } Hand 2: 54.1255 % 33.54% 20.58% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo } --- [/ QUOTE ] OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45). [/ QUOTE ] You have a .3% edge if villain always does this with JJ/QQ/AK and nothing else. People were acting like I was an idiot and saying you don't have odds to call against that range, so I was showing that you do. However, this is the 2nd hour of the $10 rebuy. Villain just made an overbet push at an early position raiser. What do you put him on? This is AQ a lot and all sorts of other junk. Against a good player, this is a fold, but what does that have to do with the situation. 
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#22
10-03-2006, 02:49 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am suprised so many people say fold. First of all, this is the second hour of the $10 rebuy. Secondly, villain made a huge overbet, which is less likely to be a big pair. I think this is usually AK or JJ/QQ. I call this. [/ QUOTE ] we do not have the odds to call against a range of JJ/QQ/AK. but thanks for stopping by. [/ QUOTE ] You are calling 25400 to win 30200, 1.19-1, putting in 45.6% of the money. You are 45.9% against AK, JJ, QQ. Obviously, there is a question of how often this is AQ or something and how often it is AA/KK. This is sort of a question of do I want to take an even gamble for all my chips. However, I think that in the 2nd hour of the 10 rebuy it is 2 high cards often enough to call. Anyway, you do have odds against the JJ,QQ,AK. I appreciate your expertise with odds, and thanks for stopping by. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 431,500,608 games 0.517 secs 834,624,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.8745 % 25.29% 20.58% { AKo } Hand 2: 54.1255 % 33.54% 20.58% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo } --- [/ QUOTE ] OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45). [/ QUOTE ] You have a .3% edge if villain always does this with JJ/QQ/AK and nothing else. People were acting like I was an idiot and saying you don't have odds to call against that range, so I was showing that you do. However, this is the 2nd hour of the $10 rebuy. Villain just made an overbet push at an early position raiser. What do you put him on? This is AQ a lot and all sorts of other junk. Against a good player, this is a fold, but what does that have to do with the situation. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I don't play re-buys and never have. I have heard that many people don't adjust to the end of the rebuy which is essentially what you are saying may be going on here. This essentially comes down to hand ranges. Against JJ+,AK we obviously can't call. We throw in AQ and it's much closer. I don't know. I just think we can find a much better spot. You'd have to agree that a .3% edge isn't worth pushing. FWIW - I probabaly call this in the heat of the moment b/c I'm a station who can't fold AK. edit: i can't spell.
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#23
10-03-2006, 03:00 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am suprised so many people say fold. First of all, this is the second hour of the $10 rebuy. Secondly, villain made a huge overbet, which is less likely to be a big pair. I think this is usually AK or JJ/QQ. I call this. [/ QUOTE ] we do not have the odds to call against a range of JJ/QQ/AK. but thanks for stopping by. [/ QUOTE ] You are calling 25400 to win 30200, 1.19-1, putting in 45.6% of the money. You are 45.9% against AK, JJ, QQ. Obviously, there is a question of how often this is AQ or something and how often it is AA/KK. This is sort of a question of do I want to take an even gamble for all my chips. However, I think that in the 2nd hour of the 10 rebuy it is 2 high cards often enough to call. Anyway, you do have odds against the JJ,QQ,AK. I appreciate your expertise with odds, and thanks for stopping by. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 431,500,608 games 0.517 secs 834,624,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.8745 % 25.29% 20.58% { AKo } Hand 2: 54.1255 % 33.54% 20.58% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo } --- [/ QUOTE ] OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45). [/ QUOTE ] You have a .3% edge if villain always does this with JJ/QQ/AK and nothing else. People were acting like I was an idiot and saying you don't have odds to call against that range, so I was showing that you do. However, this is the 2nd hour of the $10 rebuy. Villain just made an overbet push at an early position raiser. What do you put him on? This is AQ a lot and all sorts of other junk. Against a good player, this is a fold, but what does that have to do with the situation. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I don't play re-buys and never have. I have heard that many people don't adjust to the end of the rebuy which is essentially what you are saying may be going on here. This essentially comes down to hand ranges. Against JJ+,AK we obviously can't call. We throw in AQ and it's much closer. I don't know. I just think we can find a much better spot. You'd have to agree that a .3% edge isn't worth pushing. FWIW - I probabaly call this in the heat of the moment b/c I'm a station who can't fold AK. edit: i can't spell. [/ QUOTE ] OK, you don't play rebuys. I think the loose play early in the $10 rebuy is very relevant to whether to call an overbet push. If you haven't played in the $10 rebuy, I can't see how you can evaluate villain's range. The .3% edge assumes just JJ/QQ/AK. Obviously some AA/KKs make it unfavorable, but that is balanced by some AQs. As I say, there is to big a loose donk factor in this stage of the $10 rebuy. If it is essentially an even gamble, I am not sure why people are saying that makes it a fold. It depends on the tournament situation whether it is advantagous to gamble. In any case, I think this is much better than an even gamble.
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#24
10-03-2006, 03:17 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
Super easy call. God sakes ppl you need like half a million in chips for final table. Get some balls and try to build a stack. You realize how rare it is to get ALL of your money in as a 60/40 80/20. He almost never has AA/KK here, so take a coin flip and if you lose, whatever just open up another table.
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#25
10-03-2006, 03:37 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
[ QUOTE ]
OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. [/ QUOTE ] No, it's really not. It's a huge field and you need every edge you can get. A double up here will also give you the table chip lead, which is a major advantage to acquiring more chips. FFS people he's only like 45BB deep. This isn't a "deep stacked" situation. [ QUOTE ] In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45). [/ QUOTE ] People who pass edges to take better spots seem to not understand that 1)The better spots don't always come up 2)By passing on the first spot, you have fewer chips with which to apply your theoretical better edge, should it come around. You should be taking AS MANY GOOD SPOTS AS POSSIBLE IN A TOURNAMENT if your intent is to win it. I don't know what I would do in the given situation, personally, but that's only because I haven't played one of these events in awhile. Betgo has provided the best analysis of anyone in this thread.
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#27
10-03-2006, 04:18 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
So are we essentially saying never fold AK preflop?
I mean, our pot odds are terrible and we have determined that our edge is .3% against a range of JJ,QQ,& AK (which i don't think is his range). Let's get a practical range of hands for our villain (someone else b/c my lack of experience with rebuys clearly makes my hand range way off) and compute our equity against it. I am still not convinced that we have an edge here, but I am more than willing to accept it if someone can convince me otherwise.
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#28
10-03-2006, 04:26 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
Nath,
We still have an M of 24 if we fold. It's a $10 tournament right? I am quite confident that with and M of 24, right after the rebuy period, in a 10$ tournament we can find better spots. They will come up. Maybe they won't in a bigger tournament with stiff competition, but they will here. This is all assuming our edge is actually .3%. With a better range than JJ/QQ/AK our edge is certainly different. Anyhow, if our M were lower or our edge was bigger, I'd take the shot here b/c we might not get to see a spot like this again as you pointed out. I am so sure that we will see one, that I can pass on this one here.
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#29
10-03-2006, 05:37 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
Someone said earlier "against a thinking player" and there was something else saying "if he's any good" Tell me what reasonable thinking player makes a HU 18x shove? This is a 10r, we are dealing with a non thinking player who doesnt want to play his cards or a thinking player who wants us to think he doesnt want to play his cards. This is very rarely AA or KK, we're looking at ATs+ AQo+ 22-JJ most of the time here, unless you have a read that would suggest he would do this with premium. ALOT of times in these rebuys people are looking to race with mid to small pairs and such because they want to double.
As for what you should do I think either way is fine, if you dont have much of a read I may lean slightly towards folding since your stack is fine now but theres nothing wrong with calling either I dont think. If you have a read that he's sorta standard rebuy player I would lean more towards calling, you're a couple of levels away from feeling pressure and this could definitely be a great spot to pick up a ton of chips.
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#30
10-03-2006, 06:11 PM
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Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)
[ QUOTE ]
Nath, We still have an M of 24 if we fold. It's a $10 tournament right? I am quite confident that with and M of 24, right after the rebuy period, in a 10$ tournament we can find better spots. They will come up. [/ QUOTE ] It's not a $10 tournament. It is more like a $60 tournament.
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