meh, i hate this spot...

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy flop fold with bad relative position. The odds are that someone has made a better pair and even if they haven't they will draw out on you a very large part of the time. Hero's implied odds are a disaster because of his terrible position and because the underpair will lose bigger pots than it wins.

Just to test my intuition I simulated this with PokerStove.

PFR range: top 16%
Limper range: 11th percentile through 45th percentile (this excludes hands he would probably open-raise)

The PFR has 39% equity, the limper has 37%, and Hero has 24%. Ouch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Stellar,

Thanks for the analysis. 2 things that I think change it are that 1) I like my relative position since I can face the 3rd player with 2 cold (he's not an all-out fish, just a bit too loose and too passive, I don't think he'll call a flop raise with a gutshot, say) and leave myself HU with the pfr often.

Also, the pfr was quite aggressive and if I had to estimate i'd say he's probably raising somewhere between 25-37% of his hands here, which changes the equity calcs substantially. When we get it HU with the pfr our equity is quite good, according to my pokerstove #s.

Surf

[veganmav]

Is it really that nitty to just fold the flop?

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really that nitty to just fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe not? I'm still unsure, and my paranoia about being weak-tight is relatively justified in a game this aggressive(non party no pt, but the LAGs really LAG it up)

Surf

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I like my relative position since I can face the 3rd player with 2 cold (he's not an all-out fish, just a bit too loose and too passive, I don't think he'll call a flop raise with a gutshot, say) and leave myself HU with the pfr often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've heard this argument before and I don't agree with it. Hijack has the good relative position because he acts last on the autobet. Once in a while you will succeed in driving out a better hand but not very often. He has to have it and fold it. Even then it's a worthless achievement unless you can beat the PFR, only about a 50% chance.

Against this are all the times that hijack has a better hand, possibly a much better hand, and takes several bets off of you. Or hijack was never a factor and you are paying extra to drive out a player who was always folding. There is a reason some posters were advocating a flop call. It's because the relative merits of calling and raising are fairly close. One of the things I've learned recently is this is not a raise/fold situation unless you want it to be. It can be OK just to call, see what hijack is going to do, and reevaluate after you see the turn card. Raising commits you to blindly putting at least 2 BB in the pot and usually more than that. Calling only costs 0.5 BB and if you can read the table you can often walk away on the turn. For example, based on your reads, I'd say that if you call, hijack overcalls, another overcard turns, and someone bets, then you must be the underdog against each opponent separately and collectively you are in very poor shape versus the two of them.

In summary, calling is an option if you insist on playing out the hand. With 54 instead of 44 it might well be the best play because the extra outs increase your pot equity and make it more worthwhile to see the turn before committing to a course of action.

But with 44 I think this is a fold and not especially close. Your bad position has made your hand worthless.

Let's switch seats with the hijack. Now 44 has some value because you can see what the loose player is going to do before you act. If he folds then you are headsup with a pair and a fair amount of money in the pot. If he raises then obviously you have just saved money. If he calls then you can do what you want. You can fold knowing that BB probably has at least a draw if not a pair. Or you can peel secure in the knowledge that at least you won't be raised and that your good position will carry over to the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the pfr was quite aggressive and if I had to estimate i'd say he's probably raising somewhere between 25-37% of his hands here, which changes the equity calcs substantially. When we get it HU with the pfr our equity is quite good, according to my pokerstove #s.

[/ QUOTE ]
A wider PFR range is unfavorable for you on a 975 flop because it increases Villain's chance to have a split pair. It also gives him more outs on average when you are ahead because of the enhanced straight possibilities.

[Surf]

Excellent post.

Does all this perhaps mean that this should be a fold pf, or is there enough set value to make up for the call? It seems that my poor relative position has rendered me unable to realize my equity and forces me to fold what is the best hand a not-insignificant portion of the time.

Surf

[The Bryce]

Every time you fold this pre-flop you make implied odds Jesus cry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Every time you fold this pre-flop you make implied odds Jesus cry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, right. I guess that was an overly drastic response, i haven't flopped many sets lately so I guess it feels like i'm playing it for showdown value alone which is apparently difficult and isnufficient in a 3way pot in many cases.

Surf

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Does all this perhaps mean that this should be a fold pf, or is there enough set value to make up for the call? It seems that my poor relative position has rendered me unable to realize my equity and forces me to fold what is the best hand a not-insignificant portion of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a correct idea in that the BB can call more raises when he has good relative position (first-in raiser followed by callers) instead of having the raiser on his immediate right. [This assumes for discusssion purposes that you put the players on the same hand ranges.]

But a pocket pair is virtually always worth calling one bet from the BB no matter what. The set value is just too good even if you won't have good position for that set.

Another example of this principle occurs when you are on the button considering coldcalling a multiway pot. It's much better to have an openraise with coldcallers instead of limpers followed by a cutoff raise. You don't want the flop going check-check-check-bet-????.

BTW, don't overlook that this flop sucks. There didn't have to be three overcards that make a straight. Sometimes you get something like J53r and then you have much better chances.