Party 0.50/1 BB flopped 2 pair

[SixForty]

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I still disagree with it, even with the autobet. You need to pump as much in there on this flop as you can regardless of his turn tendencies.

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Some opponents that you play regularly against, you just get to know them. In this case, I know that some of the regulars I play will do one of two things virtually ALL the time: either go into call down mode to my 3bet, or lead the turn if I don't reraise their flop checkraise.

When I'm 99% sure that I can squeeze out an extra half bet with a different line when I'm also very sure that I'm ahead, then it's an easy play to make.

[Donkster]

I think you are missing my point. If he's on a draw, you have to make him pay now, not later, because "later" could be him hitting the draw. For instance, what happens if you just call and then he leads out when a flush card hits? That extra small bet isn't worth not making him pay for his draw if that's what he has. As I said before, if the board is less draw-friendly, I'd agree with you completely, and in fact I'd probably play it that way most of the time in this situation.

[SixForty]

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I think you are missing my point. If he's on a draw, you have to make him pay now, not later, because "later" could be him hitting the draw. For instance, what happens if you just call and then he leads out when a flush card hits? That extra small bet isn't worth not making him pay for his draw if that's what he has. As I said before, if the board is less draw-friendly, I'd agree with you completely, and in fact I'd probably play it that way most of the time in this situation.

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Well, if I just call, and he leads out when the flush card hits, I can decide to raise or call down depending on my read.

But here's the thing, later is only going to be him hitting his draw 20% of the time. 80% of the time he'll miss. And when he misses, his equity goes way down.

So I can charge him that extra small bet on the flop when his equity is 35% (meaning I profit 0.3 small bets) or I can charge him an extra big bet on the turn when his equity drops to 20% (meaning I profit 0.6 big bets)

Looks like waiting is 4 times more profitable. If I know he'll autobet the turn, seems like an easy decision.

[Donkster]

I'll run the numbers on this later and post what I find out. I still think you are better off getting more in on the flop than the turn, but I'll let the math speak for itself.

[Mattafuga]

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i like it. river bet is a must, if he c/r, I'd probably fold.


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I wouldn't fold the river to a single bet. The checkraise bluff is utilized far too often in low limits to be respected in a pot of this size.