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#31
04-05-2006, 06:40 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this hand, your at best 60/40 against AK-AJs/ and 66+ Most of the time you'll get in the money here and can go from there, I'll be interested in what the more seasoned players have to say. [/ QUOTE ] note, while you're 60/40, when you win, you're huge stack in the money, and a bunch of the times you lose, you still get 3rd. c who takes care not to say what he actually does in the hand. 
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#32
04-05-2006, 06:41 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game). [/ QUOTE ] I agree.
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#33
04-05-2006, 06:44 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game). [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has. I call this FWIW.
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#34
04-05-2006, 06:47 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has. I call this FWIW. [/ QUOTE ] I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong.
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#35
04-05-2006, 06:48 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
My point was that you need a better reason to pass up +ev, other than "it is okay too IMO"
Your explaination of when it is right to pass up +EV is correct, and again I agree that doesn't really apply here as you shouldn't be passing up anything but the slightest of the slightest EV.
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#36
04-05-2006, 06:50 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has. I call this FWIW. [/ QUOTE ] I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I just got the impression youre overusing it, and youre doing it to talk yourself into folding some dodgy stuff to be freed of some immidiate varaince. I could be totally off though.
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#37
04-05-2006, 06:50 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
Uh that is top 35%. Not exactly that wide. A case could be made to push more like top 45-50%. 35% seems very reasonable to me. If you want, change it to
33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (top 20%) And we are 42.5% to win. Still a super easy call. You can't argue for a fold if you are trying to win $$$ at these. Might as well go play craps for a living if you throw this hand away. Edit - Yes I'm taking into account that the SB called. JJ is a strong [censored] hand. Yeah throw AKo away whatever. AKs is close.
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#38
04-05-2006, 06:51 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has. I call this FWIW. [/ QUOTE ] I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I don't need someone to put a gun to my head for me to want to make money. I'm not going to argue anymore of this because you don't seem to understand what I'm getting at nor do you seem to want to.
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#39
04-05-2006, 06:54 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game). [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] I think if 99% of the players in this forum completely forgot that there might be times when there are some additional factors besides ICM and strictly did what ICM told them to, they'd have a higher ROI.
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#40
04-05-2006, 06:55 PM
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Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
[ QUOTE ]
Uh that is top 35%. Not exactly that wide. A case could be made to push more like top 65-70%. 35% seems very reasonable to me. If you want, change it to 33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (top 20%) And we are 42.5% to win. Still a super easy call. You can't argue for a fold if you are trying to win $$$ at these. Might as well go play craps for a living if you throw this hand away. [/ QUOTE ] Are you taking into account that SB has also called the all-in?
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