Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.

[odellthurman]

You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
You should take slight edges whenever you can get them.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing about this edge is it's not even close to 'slight'. It's substantially large.

[odellthurman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should take slight edges whenever you can get them.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing about this edge is it's not even close to 'slight'. It's substantially large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. My comment is more general and not just directed to the hand posted. Sorry for the attempted thread hijack.

[RiverDood]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite

[/ QUOTE ]

When the blinds get this high, you've really got only two choices. Get your money in as soon as possible as a favorite (slight or otherwise) . . . or wait until you've got no choice but to push/call with a withering stack and pot odds that dictate playing any two.

If you've made it this far by playing tight, it can be hard to start grabbing at such seemingly "borderline" plays. Make sure you're recalibrating by realizing just how fast you'll be blinded down to zero if you wait for the perfect hand. Crazy blinds dictate a whole new level of first-in aggression.

[A_PLUS]

To play slight devils advocate. 3 handed, it is often correct to pass up +EV moves in terms of chips (CEV). This is because, you will make more $$ ($EV) by waiting. This is rarely the case, when you are the aggressor, fairly frequent when you are the caller, and the 3rd stack in your example is also short.

Basically, when you call, 100% of the time you can be eliminated. When you push, there is some % less than 100% where you can possibly be eliminated (only when he calls).

If you had 12xBB, and BB had 15, 3rd player has 3, I could maybe find a fold here with A7, especially if 2nd paid much more than 3rd. That being said, A7 is in the MUST push category with 4xBB. It doesnt really matter what the structure or other stacks are (there are extreme examples of course). Basically, at most you have less than 10 hands to get your money in. Do a little experiment, grab a deck of cards and deal yourself 9 sets of hole cards. Do this a few times, and you will realize that A7 is a very good hand here.

Also, take into account that if you wait 4 hands to push with your JJ, you will have 2.5xBB in your stack, so even if you double, you arent far ahead of where you started. When you get short handed, it is a lot of blind luck. The button usually pushes, and eventually someone calls with a decent hand. There is no way to really avoid it. The only fundamental mistake you can make that will always be wrong, is folding too much, or limping, planning to fold at some point later in the hand.

Put it this way, if everyone had <7xBB and you pushed every time you could open the pot, you would make a lot more money in the long run than if you folded until you had a hand better than A7 to push with. This isnt really just my opinion, it is a mathematical fact.

[Erik Blazynski]

Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

[Cair Paravel]

But you have to factor in that he will fold the other half (or so) of his hands, making it a hugely +EV move. You win uncontested half the time, and you win half the time he calls, so you win three-fourths of the time.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

[/ QUOTE ]

1) That range is really wide.
2) Your hand doesn't have to be a favorite against his range, it has to be +EV. Do the math. It's unexploitably +EV.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That's less than 50% of hands. That means you take the pot preflop over 50% of the time and of the <50% he calls, you win almost 50% of those as well. Anything but pushing preflop is awful.

Steve

[RiverDood]

How does he have a "range"?

He's in the BB. He hasn't indicated anything about his hand except that it's been dealt to him. His range is AA-32o.

You're ahead.

OK, you're talking about his CALLING range. But, as other posters have pointed out, you make money every time on his FOLDING range. Add up the results from both possiblities, and this is as nice a +EV play as you could hope for