Thread: NL 100 AKs
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Old 06-06-2007, 12:56 AM
RipperTEQ RipperTEQ is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 92
Default Re: NL 100 AKs

3 bet 72off and show, that will get you some action. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like the river call over push.

Think about it this way...you can put in $30 to win $91 or you put in $50 to win $111. How often would he need to bet a worse hand to make pushing > calling?

x($111) + (1-x)(-$50) > x($91) + (1-x)(-$30)
111x + 50x - 50 > 91x + 30x - 30
161x - 50 > 121x - 30
40x > 20
x > .50

If 50% of the time you are ahead, then you get the following EVs for each:

EVcall = .50($91) + .50(-$30) = $45.50 - $15 = +$30.50
EVpush = .50($111) + .50(-$50) = $55.50 - $25 = +$30.50

So without a clear read as an opponent being aggressive, this is a call not a push because not many opponents will bet marginal hands on the river, except in the low limits. Even then, you will lose money in the long run without a read.
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