Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
Ok, I have made some more calculations on this hand, to try to determine the equity after Hero pushes. I have made the following assumptions:
- When Hero pushes, the calling ranges are: CO (16%), Btn (18%), SB (28%) and BB (35%). This results in Hero being called 67,76 % of the times when he pushes.
- When wining after getting called, I assume the chip distribution is the same as when Hero wins over BB.
- The chances of winning the original hand is determined by how well 97s is doing against the weighted average of all players calling ranges (20,7 %).
When Hero is getting called his probability of winning the hand is 35,57 %, for an equity of 21,99 %. When no one calls his push Hero have an equity of 17,16 %. This comes down to an weighted equity of 10,83 % ((35,57 %*67,76 %*21,99 %)+(32,24 %*17,16 %)) after a push. Comparing this to equity of 11,13 % when he folds, I get that pushing is -0,3 %. Not as bad as suggested by SNGPT (-0,9 %), but still negative. Obviously I have made a lot of assumptions, which may or maybe not is reasonable. So take this result with a large pinch of salt.
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