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Old 01-08-2007, 10:53 PM
DougL DougL is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Boulder, CO
Posts: 42
Default Re: Mirage 20/40 - Is waiting to raise the river here a mistake?

As several people have stated, since you played the hand deceptively you can't make the fold you made. Put yourself in the SB's shoes; how can he put you on a real hand? If I'm him, I think you might have KTs or KJ at best. If he is a good, observant player he doesn't have you on a hand as good as TT. At that point, how can you make a good laydown? You said that you played the hand to make the maximum, and you did it by making people believe you didn't have a set. At the end, you folded because the guy had to have your set beat based on how he played. This doesn't add up to me.

I played in that game a month ago. Either the game has changed a great deal, or your read of the game is very different than mine. The 20 game seemed to be more on the LAG side. Sure the 20 players can fold, but they have a huge capacity for agression. Did the guy in the SB have an almost shaved head and wear a white hat? If so, he plays a lot better than giving you as narrow a range as you did. If he thought people in the hand were out of line (like your play said you were), a good player could have a bigger range than you put him on.

Once you got lost in the hand, weren't you better off just calling instead of raising because you could be confident enough to fold to a re-raise? Isn't a good player capable of making a thin raise against you, once he put you on a hand? If you jammed it up the whole way, it is much easier to find a fold. If he had AA, how would he have played it based on the action in the hand?

Since he had KK, great fold. You were the one at the table, and your read was right. I don't think that you can be sure enough to make this fold profitable in the long run.

GL,

Doug
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