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Old 11-02-2006, 10:03 PM
Josh. Josh. is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 20,208
Default Re: Official November thread: General Discussion, Goals, Winrates, etc

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$1/hand is probably a good goal for most MSNL ballas.

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$1/hand is more or less unattainable for all but the elite MSNL players. how many people really make 8.33 ptbb at 3/6 or 5 ptbb at 5/10? i think most people have a tendency to look at their best month or best 30k hand stretch or whatever and assume that's their winrate. looking at that big db opened my eyes to this. so many of the 3/6 and 5/10 regulars on party winning 20 cents a hand taking pretty big variance when they could be winning that much with no variance at 200NL. bbv has glorified the idea of moving up as fast as possible, or whenever you have x buyins, rather than when you're ready. i think we're going to see a lot of peoples' egos cause them to get buried with these new, tougher games when they can't admit to themselves that they're marginal winners, and wind up getting swallowed by the inevitable 40 buyin downswings that we're going to start seeing, even at midstakes. just like all those 1000+ BB downsiwngs we've been seeing from limit players

this is obviously not directed at you. i've always admired your willingness to move up and down depending on how you're playign and running. it's just the idea that these types of winrates are commonplace. it's none of my business what other peoples' goals are, but i find it's a lot easier to cope with losing and running bad when i'm actually honest with myself about how i'm playing and what my actual expectation is

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If you can teach yourself not to tilt, or stop playing when tilted I think even a very average player (like an unimaginative nit - 17/14 type) can make 5ptbb/100 at 5/10 in the long run. I'm not saying this is by any means easy, but it is a big part of poker that doesn't get much attention. However if the games get worse these types will have to adapt or there winrate will start to get eaten up by the very best regs.

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then why have so few people actually accomplished this? and the ones who have are people like lolo, EM2, booosted. i'm talking longrun. not 50k hands running at 5 because even a marginal winner could pull that off with good cards. and if you're saying tilt control is the #1 skill then i think that's ridiculous