[Bill C]

The Derby is always a tough nut to crack, and even more so this year.
Winning this race is a longshot proposition, which one should bear in mind when making any picks. Play it for fun, not as a serious play.
It can help if you have some convictions about the race, and I have two:

1) I want to bet against Lawyer Ron, who I regard as an impetuous front-ender who will push any possible pace.
2) The overall pace will be very very sharp, and I want to bet against all the horses that will be any part of the expected suicidal pace.

So I will throw out any horse that I think will be within 3-4 lengths of the front at the 3/4 or 5/8 pole. That is eleven horses, by my reckoning.
Of the remaining nine, I give four no shot (Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Storm Treasure, Seaside Retreat), leaving me with five contenders.

In order of my opinion they are:

Steppenwolfer (30/1)
AP Warrior (15/1)
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Point Determined (12/1)
Jazil (30/1)
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Cause to Believe (50/1)

I will have win bets on the top two and exactas using some combinations of the top four.
Also, I plan to include three speed types that may hang on for part of it and use Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek underneath in some trifectas.
As far as I am concerned, SNS is the "wise guy horse" and will be seriously overbet for what he is.

Don't forget the Oaks-Derby Double, which can be very juicy if you can throw out the favorites.
In the Oaks I am interested in Wander Lady Anne L (8/1) and perhaps Wait a While (5/1).

Enjoy the race. Maybe sip a little KY bourbon as they go to post!
bc