Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

This is a FPP Turbo sat to the Sunday 215. 11 seats, a bunch of FPP's to 12th. 19 left. I am around 10th (edit: actually more like 7th/8th... the several of us bunched near 30K is like top 9). There are only a couple true short stacks, most of the shorter stacks on other tables are in the 10-20K range. Blinds are huge, someone is pushing every hand. Pushes generally aren't getting called. I think AK or JJ is an easy fold, KK an easy push. And here I am with QQ:

Avg Stack was ~ 23K.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP2 (t17573)
CO (t16506)
Hero (t30060)
SB (t32197)
BB (t49736)
UTG (t28674)
MP1 (t31800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t17173</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">

Hero....

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

You're on a M of about 2.5, but then apparently everyone is too. Still 8 to a seat and you're going to have to see at least a showdown or 2 before then if you want to make it. Pusher has 2 BBs, think you have to call.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

must call this one.. you're not in a position to fold anything.. With regular blind intervals you can play more cautiously but with the Turbo sats where everyone is bunched up together and clinging for survival I think this is way too strong of a hand.. and I probably call with JJ and AK

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

He's a short stack, and you've got him covered. It seems unlikely that you can fold your way into the top 11. You're not out of it if you lose here, but you're in fantastic shape if you win.

I'd also think a short stack would like to invite some action, rather than be content with the blinds because he'll likely need more than that to get into the top 11. He doesn't have AA or KK. The only hand you really fear here is AK -- everything else you cold crush. Call.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
and I probably call with JJ and AK

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Interesting.

I'm not much of a sat guy. I'm trying to get my feet wet with these FPP's for future satellite endeavors. Don't really have a clue. Just seems like 30K is usually enough to get me there, winning the hand guarantees, losing puts me at one orbit and having to get lucky. My intuition is I need significantly better than a coin flip, whichb is why I say fold AK/JJ, which are probably coin flips against the push range. Especially when I can push myself at some point and pick up a ton of chips with a lot less risk.

I think I was more like 7th/8th, not 10th, btw. DOubt it matters much.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'd also think a short stack would like to invite some action, rather than be content with the blinds because he'll likely need more than that to get into the top 11. He doesn't have AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh??

His push is a minraise. What's he doing with AA/KK? Flatcalling? Really doubt it.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

It's very close on whether or not you can fold into the seat, so I'm leaning towards pushing. MP2 does not have to have much to push here.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

Are you saying you've never seen a short stack limp with AA or KK to maximize the gain he can get out of the hand?

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's very close on whether or not you can fold into the seat, so I'm leaning towards pushing. MP2 does not have to have much to push here.

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I don't think anyone's thinking about folding into a seat. Isn't it more a question of the difference between calling a push here (knowing we see a showdown) and being able to pick up a lot of chips later with our own push and (usually) no showdown?

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you've never seen a short stack limp with AA or KK to maximize the gain he can get out of the hand?

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It's not impossible, just not likely when he's this short in a satellite. It'd be a horrible satellite play to encourage a three-way limped pot w/ the blinds when you can get heads up v BB. Also, no one is pushing over the top b/c he's obviously calling and everyone would immediately put him on AA (and being a pretty big donkey about it) or a slim chance of not AA and being the biggest donkey ever.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

Am I the only one that folds this?

You are on the button you have at least 5 more hands before you're in the blinds and when 1 more player busts you will no longer be short handed and may even have more than 5 hands before the blinds come around again.

First in I think its an easy push, calling a SS allin is tougher.

Yes, the SS has only 2+BB's but you have just under 4.

Yes SS's range is huge, or at least should be, but what is your situation like if you lose. You will have 13k and be in pretty bad shape.

How soon before the blinds go up? With this stack you can see probably 9-10 or possibly more hands where you can pick your spots and pickup blinds. I think I'd wait it out.

Like you said I'd rather be pushing junk first in then having to see a flop with QQ.

Hotrod

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone's thinking about folding into a seat. Isn't it more a question of the difference between calling a push here (knowing we see a showdown) and being able to pick up a lot of chips later with my own push and (usually) no showdown?

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Given the number of players left to knock out, I'd feel much better about my play if I lost by calling QQ and got sucked out on, vs. stealing from the SB and my opponent wakes up with aces or kings.

I don't want to be wrong when "usually" decides to leave. "Usually" you'll win with QQ. I'll take my chances on what I know.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

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How soon before the blinds go up?

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Soon. It's a turbo, so every five minutes. BB will be 12K by the time it gets to me and I'll be allin if I lose.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

I think I call because I'm pretty sure you can't fold your way in yet.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

You probably have the other 2 tables open, so you should know how people are playing. There are a few issues in place here. The stack sizes of the 4 people after you are great. You could fold this hand and most likely steal with any 2 cards the following hand.

That's not to say that you should fold here for sure. Another issue is the tables combining at 18. If your table busts the 19th guy, it's possible you could move up in relation to the blinds. Stars usually tries to put people in the same position at the table, but it's not always possible. Moving up to UTG is a very good thing for you.

With the stack you have now, you do not want to be big blind when it is 20k or more. With your spot at the table and the stalling that is probably going on, this is very likely. If you call here and win, you have 60k, and you can not only survive a 10k/20k blind round, but if they go up three times before they get to you (which might happen if you are CO at a 9 handed table), then you can even survive a 15k/30k blind round. This means you have like 2 full orbits, and can definitely fold your way to a seat.

I'm not sure I love a call here. I think it is pretty close, so I am not going to argue against it. But I want to make sure you don't underestimate your fold equity from the people who are after you. Calling and losing here is very very bad. That will happen probably 1/3 of the time on average. Pushing and stealing next hand (or the hand after) will give you 42k and should allow you to make it through the 10k/20k blinds and fold your way in.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

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BB will be 12K by the time it gets to me and I'll be allin if I lose.

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If this were true it'd be an instafold, but it's not, because once one more person busts one of the tables will break and you might be reseated.

This is tricky but I don't think you can quite fold in so I call. I may be wrong about this since I'd have to watch every table to make sure.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

Hero calls.

The avg stack at the bubble will be ~50K, and the table will be 6-handed, the blinds will be at least 6k/12k or more.

I don't think you can pass on a 2:1 edge (against villain's range) to comfortably fold to a good situation at the bubble.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

Very easy call.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

...calls. You need to pick up 1 more pot to be guaranteed a seat. 30k might not cut it. You're also very likely to be 80/20 or 70/30.

Re: Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)
 

You have to call this. The blinds will be 5k/10k and being in quite a few of these sats you will be BB at least once more at which time you may end up having to push any two. I would put villan on any pocket pair or Ax.

Results
 

I thought for a long time. I wasn't really worried about AA/KK, obviously he could have them, but I knew he could just as easily have JJ/TT or other lower pairs. There are a few more hands I dominate in this range than that dominate me. I was mainly thinking about the middle of his range - the overcard hands. AK is obviously bad, but it's only one hand. What I tried to figure out was whether I wanted to call vs one-overcard hands. I decided that a 70/30 was definitely a good situation, because there was likely a less than 70% chance I would get the seat if I folded. Add in the pairs and AK to the range (where I come out somewhere near 50/50 overall) and it comes down to a 65/35 or so, but still I thought that edge was larger than my chance of getting the seat if I folded. I am still not sure; I don't have enough sat experience to estimate something like that very accurately.

So I thought it was very close and I pushed.

He had KK. It held and I ended up bubbling and winning an assload of FPP's.

Thanks all for the analysis.