Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

First player in was a two plus two guy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t3705)
Button (t3800)
SB (t2495)
Hero (t3500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t3680</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t2270 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t6025) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t6025) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t6025) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t6025

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

$55 turbo by the way.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Standard I think...

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

I wouldn't overcall all-in with JJ on the bubble.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

I fold. JJ isn't going to play that well against two all ins. You could be up against as many as three overs. Let them battle it out. The bubble might burst here, if not there will be a crippled stack.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

I just noticed that SB called. I think it's a fairly easy fold now.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Screw that call. Play for money not, not taking 4th. If you win your golden for 1st.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Screw that call. Play for money not, not taking 4th. If you win your golden for 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain? How is calling here going to make you more money than folding?

If you win, you have a good CHANCE at 1st, if you lose to UTG you are out in fourth...if you lose to SB but beat UTG you have 5bbs.

If you fold, you have 8bbs and a decent chance at 1st.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Easy call I think.

You need to lose to both UTG and SB to get 4th

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

You have to call this. Your hand is just too good. The following ranges seem pretty reasonable to me.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.3141 % 20.69% 00.63% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 33.3188 % 32.47% 00.85% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 45.3670 % 44.79% 00.58% { JJ }

You have more then enough hand to play this pot and remember that you have to come in last to not make the money. I'll do an ICM, but calling is probably + 2.0% or more.

Fold - .2998 and .2573
Call - .4396 (win) and .2535 (2nd)

So if it is 63/37 in favor of the short stack if you fold, your fold equity is 27.3%

If you call and are 69/31 favorite over the big stack, your equity is

Win (45.4%)
2nd (23.0%)
3rd (21.3%)
OOTM (10.3%)

Total = 30.0% equity if you call

EV calling = + 2.7%

I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]


You need to lose to both UTG and SB to get 4th

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a valid point, but also, I'm practically garunteed third by a fold here.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

If you're not sure, just fold. No amount of odds, probabilities, luck, or force will guarantee that JJ is a good hand. We need to tighten up this close to the money and with the amount of chips we have, we have a good chance of hanging on for 2nd. Any pair of Q, K, or A beats you. Even though it may be +EV to call, I think there are too many ways for you to lose this hand.

If UTG loses, he has a very small stack vs. blinds.
If UTG wins, SB is gone and you are ITM.

The way I see it, you're in better position if you fold and let someone else battle.

And the final thing, if you're going to play, play for 1st.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Why would I fold if it is +EV?

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

instafold

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Good analysis, but your range for UTG is absolutely enormous. I know a lot of 2+2ers aren't pushing with that wide a range.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


You need to lose to both UTG and SB to get 4th

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a valid point, but also, I'm practically garunteed third by a fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB is pretty likely to win this if you fold. and then utg will still have ~1200, and you're far from guaranteed 3rd. if you call and beat utg but lose to sb you only lose 800 chips. sb will not be that tight since he's 4th and will have to do something soonish anyway, and utg will be opening a lot of pots. there's a good chance they have some thing like 22 and A7 or 97s and 88, in which case folding is a disaster.

i would call.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Classy.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying calling this hand is free money?

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

I'm saying passing up +EV situations is like passing up free money.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

You need a better reason than, "You don't have to"

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you know your back is gonna crack (really) bad if you bend over twice, and you see a $500 bill down the street?

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm saying passing up +EV situations is like passing up free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this hand and potentially busting on the bubble is throwing money away.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you know your back is gonna crack (really) bad if you bend over twice, and you see a $500 bill down the street?

[/ QUOTE ]
Pay a little kid $5 to pick it up for me

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm saying passing up +EV situations is like passing up free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this hand and potentially busting on the bubble is throwing money away.

[/ QUOTE ]
uhhhhhh playing any hand is risking losing money. This is a horrible argument

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis, but your range for UTG is absolutely enormous. I know a lot of 2+2ers aren't pushing with that wide a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

^^^

what he said

also,

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a valid point, but also, I'm practically garunteed third by a fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you're *neither* gauranteed to make the money *nor* gauranteed to take 3rd if you do make the money.

c

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Playing this hand and potentially busting on the bubble is throwing money away.

[/ QUOTE ]
From an earlier post or yours in this thread
[ QUOTE ]
Even though it may be +EV to call, I think there are too many ways for you to lose this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
If its +EV to call (and I am pretty sure its about as close to 0.0 EV as possible) then you are throwing money away by not making this call. So you either believe one of the other of your statements but it would be very tough to maintain both.

One could be seeking to dampen variance which, while a fine strategy long term for tilt/psychological reasons will leave some cash on the table.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

I would fold this hand,
your at best 60/40 against AK-AJs/ and 66+

Most of the time you'll get in the money here and can go from there, I'll be interested in what the more seasoned players have to say.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I fold if it is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My own philosophy on poker is, eventhough it is +EV, it doesn't mean you have to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]
My philosophy on life is, if you see a $100 bill sitting on the sidewalk, you don't have to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you know your back is gonna crack (really) bad if you bend over twice, and you see a $500 bill down the street?

[/ QUOTE ]
Pay a little kid $5 to pick it up for me

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, dont try pretending like you dont understand the analogue.

At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game).

But you know this, and I'm just being a nit.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this hand,
your at best 60/40 against AK-AJs/ and 66+

Most of the time you'll get in the money here and can go from there, I'll be interested in what the more seasoned players have to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

note, while you're 60/40, when you win, you're huge stack in the money, and a bunch of the times you lose, you still get 3rd.

c

who takes care not to say what he actually does in the hand.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]


At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game).


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game).


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has.

I call this FWIW.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has.

I call this FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

My point was that you need a better reason to pass up +ev, other than "it is okay too IMO"

Your explaination of when it is right to pass up +EV is correct, and again I agree that doesn't really apply here as you shouldn't be passing up anything but the slightest of the slightest EV.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has.

I call this FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just got the impression youre overusing it, and youre doing it to talk yourself into folding some dodgy stuff to be freed of some immidiate varaince.

I could be totally off though.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

Uh that is top 35%. Not exactly that wide. A case could be made to push more like top 45-50%. 35% seems very reasonable to me. If you want, change it to

33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (top 20%)

And we are 42.5% to win. Still a super easy call. You can't argue for a fold if you are trying to win $$$ at these. Might as well go play craps for a living if you throw this hand away.

Edit - Yes I'm taking into account that the SB called. JJ is a strong [censored] hand. Yeah throw AKo away whatever. AKs is close.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Although IMO in this spot its not the deciding factor at all, in fact it isnt close at all to having any inpact. You're probably better off not applying this concept if you think it has.

I call this FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree because nobody is putting a gun to your head and saying you have to continue in the hand. I'll probably stick by my opinion until someone proves me wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't need someone to put a gun to my head for me to want to make money. I'm not going to argue anymore of this because you don't seem to understand what I'm getting at nor do you seem to want to.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


At times it is correct to pass up on +$EV (of cource though never the option that renders the most $EV, but when ICM "tells us" something is the most +$EV it doesnt always tell the whole truth since it doesnt have any idea how a move is going to affect the flow of the game).


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if 99% of the players in this forum completely forgot that there might be times when there are some additional factors besides ICM and strictly did what ICM told them to, they'd have a higher ROI.

Re: Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh that is top 35%. Not exactly that wide. A case could be made to push more like top 65-70%. 35% seems very reasonable to me. If you want, change it to

33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (top 20%)

And we are 42.5% to win. Still a super easy call. You can't argue for a fold if you are trying to win $$$ at these. Might as well go play craps for a living if you throw this hand away.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you taking into account that SB has also called the all-in?