Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

recently I was at the final table of a live tournament. There are 3 of us left and I am the small blind, the big blind and I have the same amount of chips (30k) SB=4k BB=8k.

The BB is a thinking tight aggressive type that knows my game well and understands the range of hand that I might raise or push with late in a tourney against a random hand. I look down and I see A-7 off, and being in the small blind and having only 4 BB left, I am inclined to push, but I know that this player understands the situation and knows that I would make this move and is likely to call with just about anything. This makes me only a slight favorite over most hands that this player holds. I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong). So I called the BB, and the flop comes with an A, perfect, just what I wanted, now I can get my money in cause I am surely a bigger favorite now. So I push. I am called the player had K-4 of clubs. Incidentally the flop hit with 2 clubs, the river falls a club and I am left with T500, eliminated 2 hands later. I feel like the variance of this game has me tied up in knots I don't bet because I have been screwed by it, and then my fear manifested on the river. Did I bring this on myself? Did I play too cautiously?

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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recently I was at the final table of a live tournament. There are 3 of us left and I am the small blind, the big blind and I have the same amount of chips (30k) SB=4k BB=8k.

The BB is a thinking tight aggressive type that knows my game well and understands the range of hand that I might raise or push with late in a tourney against a random hand. I look down and I see A-7 off, and being in the small blind and having only 4 BB left, I am inclined to push, but I know that this player understands the situation and knows that I would make this move and is likely to call with just about anything. This makes me only a slight favorite over most hands that this player holds. I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong).

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Very, very wrong. If you push here, no matter how well your opponent knows that you have a wide range, he has no recourse to stop you from making a +EV push especially with the strong hand that you have. His calling range here is irrelevant. This is a huge push and not even close. You could turn your cards faceup on the table and he couldn't stop you from making a +EV push.

But i'm not sure what any of this has to do with variance.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

Push preflop. K4 is a great hand for you to be up against with A7 in this situation.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Did I play too cautiously?

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Yes, and you overthought the situation quite a bit too.

You had it exactly right when you knew you should push preflop. When you are on a small stack, you can't afford to wait for large edges. I'm pretty sure this is an unexploitable +EV push or close to it (meaning there's no range he can call with that will make this -EV).

I don't know what it has to with variance. Whether or not you like getting all in as a slight favorite is totally irrelevant when you have 4BB's left in your stack. You take what you can get.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong).

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very

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong).

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very

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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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But i'm not sure what any of this has to do with variance.

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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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I feel like the variance of this game has me tied up in knots I don't bet because I have been screwed by it, and then my fear manifested on the river. Did I bring this on myself? Did I play too cautiously?

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If this is how you feel, maybe you should take a break from MTTs for a little while. Play some STTs, some NL ring, PL Omaha, something. Or, just train yourself to not think like this (easier said than done). You might be amazed at what a little variety can do for your mindset and your game.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

your fear of variance has caused you to make a -EV play.
the way to overcome variance is to make +EV plays. variance will still be a bitch but you are more likely to come out on the positive side.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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your fear of variance has caused you to make a -EV play.
the way to overcome variance is to make +EV plays. variance will still be a bitch but you are more likely to come out on the positive side.

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Well stated...

-Blazman

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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You should take slight edges whenever you can get them.

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The thing about this edge is it's not even close to 'slight'. It's substantially large.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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You should take slight edges whenever you can get them.

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The thing about this edge is it's not even close to 'slight'. It's substantially large.

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I agree. My comment is more general and not just directed to the hand posted. Sorry for the attempted thread hijack.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite

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When the blinds get this high, you've really got only two choices. Get your money in as soon as possible as a favorite (slight or otherwise) . . . or wait until you've got no choice but to push/call with a withering stack and pot odds that dictate playing any two.

If you've made it this far by playing tight, it can be hard to start grabbing at such seemingly "borderline" plays. Make sure you're recalibrating by realizing just how fast you'll be blinded down to zero if you wait for the perfect hand. Crazy blinds dictate a whole new level of first-in aggression.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

To play slight devils advocate. 3 handed, it is often correct to pass up +EV moves in terms of chips (CEV). This is because, you will make more $$ ($EV) by waiting. This is rarely the case, when you are the aggressor, fairly frequent when you are the caller, and the 3rd stack in your example is also short.

Basically, when you call, 100% of the time you can be eliminated. When you push, there is some % less than 100% where you can possibly be eliminated (only when he calls).

If you had 12xBB, and BB had 15, 3rd player has 3, I could maybe find a fold here with A7, especially if 2nd paid much more than 3rd. That being said, A7 is in the MUST push category with 4xBB. It doesnt really matter what the structure or other stacks are (there are extreme examples of course). Basically, at most you have less than 10 hands to get your money in. Do a little experiment, grab a deck of cards and deal yourself 9 sets of hole cards. Do this a few times, and you will realize that A7 is a very good hand here.

Also, take into account that if you wait 4 hands to push with your JJ, you will have 2.5xBB in your stack, so even if you double, you arent far ahead of where you started. When you get short handed, it is a lot of blind luck. The button usually pushes, and eventually someone calls with a decent hand. There is no way to really avoid it. The only fundamental mistake you can make that will always be wrong, is folding too much, or limping, planning to fold at some point later in the hand.

Put it this way, if everyone had <7xBB and you pushed every time you could open the pot, you would make a lot more money in the long run than if you folded until you had a hand better than A7 to push with. This isnt really just my opinion, it is a mathematical fact.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

But you have to factor in that he will fold the other half (or so) of his hands, making it a hugely +EV move. You win uncontested half the time, and you win half the time he calls, so you win three-fourths of the time.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

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1) That range is really wide.
2) Your hand doesn't have to be a favorite against his range, it has to be +EV. Do the math. It's unexploitably +EV.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

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That's less than 50% of hands. That means you take the pot preflop over 50% of the time and of the <50% he calls, you win almost 50% of those as well. Anything but pushing preflop is awful.

Steve

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

How does he have a "range"?

He's in the BB. He hasn't indicated anything about his hand except that it's been dealt to him. His range is AA-32o.

You're ahead.

OK, you're talking about his CALLING range. But, as other posters have pointed out, you make money every time on his FOLDING range. Add up the results from both possiblities, and this is as nice a +EV play as you could hope for

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

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Erin, you are not understanding this situation properly. First of all that's an extremely wide range to be CALLING with and I seriously doubt his CALLING range is that wide. his PUSHING range might be that wide, but his calling range probably is not. If he's a good player he'd rather fold a hand like 97s here and push any 2 from the SB on his next hand.

Secondly the range you described, and I'm just estimating, is only around the top 35% of hands. So even if his range IS that wide you're forgetting the fact that 65% of the time you'll be winning the blinds which is a HUGE percentage of your stack. If you combine all the times he folds and you win the blinds with all the times he calls and you still win, and compare it to the times he calls and you lose, it's a huge money making edge to push this hand here. HUGE. it's not close to marginal at all.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

anything but a push there makes me throw up

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

First of all, My name is Blazman, I don't know who Erin is.

Yes, that is his range, I have been in this same situation with this person several times. His range is wide because he knows that my range is wide here.

I appreciate the feed back and you are totally right, pushing pre flop is the play. There is none other.

-Blazman

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.8412 % 57.17% 01.67% { Ac7d }
Hand 2: 41.1588 % 39.49% 01.67% { random }

push !

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Yes, that is his range, I have been in this same situation with this person several times. His range is wide because he knows that my range is wide here.


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Well as we all agree it's a push even if his range is this wide. And i agree that he should open up his calling range here somewhat significantly if he knows your range is wide, but even so, as a thinking player he knows that he needs a better hand to call with than you need to push with

And you said he knows your push range here is wide, but is your push range wide? You limped with A7o. How can your push range be wide if you didn't even push A7? In addition how was he going to call a push with ten high, if he didn't even push his K4s preflop after you limped, which should have been an absolute autopush? I think you've misread the situation on many levels. All signs point to his calling range being much tighter than you estimate.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

If you want to win money playing poker, you better work on two things immediately.

1. You need to understand why this push is mandatory and hugely +EV.

2. You need to understand that you are going to lose almost every tournament you enter. Work on understanding theory and making correct decisions, and let go of the damn results.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Well as we all agree it's a push even if his range is this wide.

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It's a push even if he's calling with any two.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

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I disagree with the disagreement. Didn't Ferguson or someone say if he had to risk his whole life savings on like a 51% shot he would do it?

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

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I disagree with the disagreement. Didn't Ferguson or someone say if he had to risk his whole life savings on like a 51% shot he would do it?

[/ QUOTE ]Thats great 11 people left i'm 2nd in chips. Chip leader is at my table i have QQ he has AKs. I can see his cards i'll OF all day knowing he will call my all in. I may be wrong thinking like this, but its a -$EV play and i know i will be able to find better spots. If i'm clearly outmatched by everyone left in the tourney then i might take the flip.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

Actually after a discussion with someone, being a huge chip leader would allow me to move up in FT money making the play +$EV along with +cEV. But i hate risking my tourney life late on a flip when it can be avoided unless i'm in need of chips.(possible leak??)

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

Yes, you brought it onto yourself. Push 100% against God Himself.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

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Thats great 11 people left i'm 2nd in chips. Chip leader is at my table i have QQ he has AKs. I can see his cards i'll OF all day knowing he will call my all in. I may be wrong thinking like this, but its a -$EV play and i know i will be able to find better spots. If i'm clearly outmatched by everyone left in the tourney then i might take the flip.

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passing up cEV is routine

passing up $EV is almost never correct*

i don't see what your point is.


*the one spot where i will knowingly pass up +$EV is in a freezeout situation where i feel that the other player(s) is/are very exploitable and stacks are relatively deep so that i will be able to capitalize on this. an extreme example would be a heads up freezeout on pokerstars where the other player is open pushing any 2 on the first level, and i do NOT have the opportunity to play this player again when the match is over. i would fold something like QTo here, even though it is +$ev, because calling here would prevent me from taking a much larger +$ev edge later on. however stacks are generally not deep enough late in a MTT or SNG that passing up ANY edge is correct.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

It's not close dude. Maybe if you had J7o you could wonder.

Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
 

And what exactly do you mean by 'fear of variance' in this situation? That if you actually see a showdown in poker sometimes you lose? Do you expect to go through your whole life folding/making other people fold?