Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Given the poor quality of most $22 sit and goers, I question how +EV it is to apply correct bubble strategy in certain situations.

Let's take this situation for example. I had been playing typical tight aggro mostly push/fold since 50/100, pushing some marginal holdings but very few outright steals.

BB is a moron table coach tight passive berater.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t1070)
Button (t5382)
Hero (t4785)
BB (t2263)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t4785 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t2063 (All-in)

I'd say BB needs 77-AA to call here. He showed KQ and took the pot.

How do you adjust your bubble strat for idiots? Is it as simple as just adjusting your calling ranges downwards? Or do you continue to push any 2 and let them make the horrible calls and take the -EV that comes with it?

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

the EV of your push is based on their calling range not the "correct" calling range.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

You risked 2138 to win 400 with 25o...LOL

edit: I noticed that this was pokerstars and they have an ante.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

actually I dont believe he needs 77+ here, LOL

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

I never push this. Too small blinds. Just fold and tell him "I won't raise you with crap". Well don't say it in the chat, but he will get it.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

I notice that at the 11s, KQ is very frequently a calling hand. I get called with it all the time.

I think you have a lot of BB here to be pushing any two.

If this guy is at the preset for LOOSE, you could be looking at +0.3%, but if he's looser still, you could be looking at a pretty nasty -0.5%. This is definitely high stakes gambling, especially since the very next hand takes the CO down to less than 4.5 BB, and the hand after that drops him to less than 4 BB if he doesn't make a successful push(or get good cards). He's in deep trouble.

I can see the logic of pushing -- BB might not want to call since CO could be going out so soon. But I've seen people call with KQ so many times by now, I wouldn't be surprised by it at all. I think it's fairly standard actually, at least at these levels.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

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You risked 2163 to win 300 with 25o...LOL

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How bad a push is it if we only get called by 77-AA? I'm too tired to do an ICM calculation and I dont have SNGPT. I think my error in the hand was not adjusting for BBs idiocy. If viewed in a vaccuum I think the push stands on it's own merit.
Ah well, live and learn.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

I would push all day long at the 215's w/o a read. Sometimes you get burned by someone who thinks they "caught" you with something like AT, but that is life.

Of course don't push if you know he is calling wide. Also don't push if the typical low limit STTer calls wide in this spot. It is a +EV push in theory but theory doesn't always find its way to the poker table.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

If you think he will only call with 77+ (which he wont) it's a 0,7% push. Keep in mind that at 11s, players that see any broadways, any Ace with atleast over 7 kicker or pair will call you, he won't think that CO is at 1000 chips most of the time. Some players do this and if you have seent his player to be good and know he knows about CO, you should just raise it the first time. Exploitable? Sure, but it's at the 11s and he won't come over you with garbage.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Isn't the point though that so many people will call with far, far less than 77-AA? Predictably so? Looking at these things in a vaccuum doesn't work.

Or to quote beejay above, "the EV of your push is based on their calling range not the "correct" calling range. "

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Actually it's 1 step up from the $11, at the $22.
I found that textbook bubble strat worked 'ok' at the $11, it was perhaps not the optimal strat.

At the $22, you get your good players, your non-retarded beginners, and your idiots.
I think the answer to my original question is "push vs. people who understand cEV vs. $EV and are playing for money, and fold vs. everyone else at the $22"

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

One thing I notice about the 11s, too, is that many people place enormous value in suited cards. More than a few times in situations like these I've been called by something like KTs or QJs, or worse. Much worse. MUCH.

So this effectively can make their calling ranges very broad. Not everyone is like that, but it happens often enough that I think it's a real factor at low levels.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

eh that wears off by the 55s. i get called by 9-j high offsuit on a daily basis. (im talking when all the stacks are healthy here, not when dude has to call 200 more on his 600 bb)

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

How is this push correct? I havent run the numbers yet but Im off to now, i just dont see 25o being positive ev into a guy that has you covered with only three hundred in the pot and your stack at more than 20x bb.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

SNGPT says he needs top 12% of hands to push here -- 55, A8o, A7s, KQs.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How is this push correct? I havent run the numbers yet but Im off to now, i just dont see 25o being positive ev into a guy that has you covered with only three hundred in the pot and your stack at more than 20x bb.

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you have it the other way around. OP has BB covered.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

I adjust my bubble strat by developing reads on each player so I know which spots I can push in. I'm only 4-tabling though, so this may not be worth it if you're playing 8 tables because your hourly rate will decrease despite your ROI being increasing.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Obviously yes you change your bubble strategy by playing more passive and letting them tangle with each other, or someone else.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Why is BB an idiot? 4 handed if you've pushed more than 2 times this round I'd probably call too

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

I currently play low stakes SNG's so I think I'm eligible to comment.

In bubble play with low quality players and with the lead you have, you gotta remember that you have you play tight and cut down on push-steals.

Take a look at it like this. When when poor players think about having a big stack like whay you have in this hand they think about pushing frequently with any hand. Thefore, when they see a big stack raising their blinds, the automatically think "This guy must have nothing. I should call." Unfortunately for you his "read" was correct. On the bubble with your lead in this situation you should wait for a good hand like AQ or a pair of jacks and knock out a small stack, or let the clowns kill each other.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

Ladys and gentlemen, we have ourselves a pushbot. Seriously bro, learn to adjust to the table conditions.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

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Why is BB an idiot? 4 handed if you've pushed more than 2 times this round I'd probably call too

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Keep doing that then. You really need to read up about key concepts.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

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On the bubble with your lead in this situation you should wait for a good hand like AQ or a pair of jacks

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Are you sure you want to go with this reply?

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

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Are you sure you want to go with this reply?

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If you are implying that we should risk our good position of taking second or first by comitting half our stack with hands like T6 in order to win T100 and T200 blinds knowing you would be called by any high cards, you are thinking like the people who build my bankroll for me.

Re: Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?
 

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If you are implying that we should risk our good position of taking second or first by comitting half our stack with hands like T6 in order to win T100 and T200 blinds knowing you would be called by any high cards, you are thinking like the people who build my bankroll for me.

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That's a strange interpretion of my sentence. It sounded like you were advocating only raising with the top 3% (AQ+, JJ+) of your hands when you have a big stack on the bubble. That's such a bad strategy that I figured it wasn't what you really meant to say. So I asked the question.