Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

10-25 Blinds. 3500 stacks. You have KK and raise under the gun to 100. Tight, good player makes it 500 to your left. You assume there is a ten percent chance he has a goofy hand. Otherwise you assume he will always make this play with AKs, AA, KK, QQ, and half the time with JJ.

If you reraise big he will almost always fold queens and jacks and the goofy hand. The other hands he will usually move in with and sometimes flat call. 80-20 move in.

If you reraise small, he will at least call with everything, reraise big about half the time with with aces, about 20% of the time with the Aks and about 10% of the time with the other hands.

If you just call his raise he will put you on a very likely big hand.

How should you play your hand?

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

seems like a reraise small part, but not sure exactly what you define a small reraise to be min rr is to make it 900. so I geuss that's what the raise is? This will also assume he will lose a bunch more too with hands ilke QQ or JJ on rag flop if he doesn't put you on the big hands postflop.

edit: oops misread one part

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

Reraise big seems like the best

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

Without doing any deep analyzation or math, reraise small feels right. I am sure that makes it wrong.

SpaceAce

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

Re-raise to 1300 at least. Fold to a push. If you're in position play it differently.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

Occurring to my dodgy maths.

Raise smallish say 700 more, and call the reraise.

You’re a solid favorate against his range, and as he will always call a small raise, and wont be fooled by a call, it can’t be right to just call.

Going all in is –EV if he only calls with aces and kings.

Any raise seems to pot commits you providing he will call your raise with aces half the time, and sometimes reraise with other hands. (It would not necessarily be right to call if he always reraised with aces, or reraised with other hands less than stated. – so pretty close.)

Hence you want to make as big a raise as he will call with all his hands as long as he is not getting the right price. You also want to make the pot as large as possible, so that if he reraises the decision to call is easier. If you had decided it was right to fold to a reraise, you might consider raising less sat 500 to make the decision to fold easier.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

easy fold.

edited: If he is going to put us on a very big hand, then I calling is fine -- but again, for him to do this, then we would have to actually also be calling with AA a majority of the time. Do you see why all these theoretical questions are so goofy? You assign a bunch of rules that all dont fit together.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

PS: All your If's dont make sense together.

"He is calling all small reraises?" Why would he do that?

Why would he push AK so often? That is horrible.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

sklansky,

these are all math questions once you assign all the probabilites and tell us exactly how our opponents will act with which cards.

when stacks get deep against a very good player, you dont want to be calling/reraising with KK when your opponent is only full of it 10% of the time.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I'd reraise small since you'd said he'd do all of those things if you did, which at the very least was calling... Even if he re-raised I'd call since its likely he'll do with other hands besides AA...

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

Make a pot-commit raise of 1500 more. Call if he moves in after that.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

If you reraise big, and if the opponent then does not fold this leaves him:

AA: 6 ways
KK: 1 way
AKs: 2 ways
QQ/JJ/goofy: 3 ways, which is 1 way each out of 6 (goofy assumed to be 6 ways but might be more) since "usually" fold was specified.


Thus you are ahead 5 ways, tying 1 way, and behind 6 ways when he calls or moves in. And it is important that AKo is not in this mix. So overall you are going to be behind 6:5.


To me then, reraising big gives you the best read on his hand while *usually* denying him the ability to call for set value, while at the same time losing less when you will be out of position if you just call. And that calling isn't much of an option since he knows you have a big hand and yet can still bluff you on an A flop with QQ/JJ/goofy.


The real question here is how much are you destined to lose in a situation where you hold KK versus AA on the few times such situations occur, and can such losses be minimized either by a good read and folding, or by playing in a way that could allow you to steal the pot when actually behind. This is why I would actually prefer to limp reraise with KK in early position a larger percentage of the time, because it will end up costing less to fold if I read it as necessary.

So in summary, I say reraise big and be prepared to fold to a push or a called flop where an A flops or you don't spike a set.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

there's 635 in the pot. hand combos are
AA, 6 ways
AKs, 2 ways
KK, 1 way
QQ, 6 ways
JJ, 6 ways
+ goofy hand.

my intuition is reraising big is wrong but let's just work it out and be sure. of the times our reraise gets called, we are behind 6 and ahead 2 (3:1). of the times we're ahead he is a 2:1 dog to win, of the times we're behind we're 4.75:1 dog to win. so ev if opponent has AA is -2310, ev if opponent has AK is 1155, making our overall ev -1703 if we raise allin and get called by just AKs and AA. of course, you said he folds QQ and JJ and other hands, so he's folding about twice as often as we're getting called. those times we win 635. so we are losing about 142 bucks over this hand range by raising allin.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I'd really like to know the "right" answer to this as this situation occurs almost every day when u play a lot of hands

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
10-25 Blinds. 3500 stacks. You have KK and raise under the gun to 100. Tight, good player makes it 500 to your left. You assume there is a ten percent chance he has a goofy hand. Otherwise you assume he will always make this play with AKs, AA, KK, QQ, and half the time with JJ.

If you reraise big he will almost always fold queens and jacks and the goofy hand. The other hands he will usually move in with and sometimes flat call. 80-20 move in.

If you reraise small, he will at least call with everything, reraise big about half the time with with aces, about 20% of the time with the Aks and about 10% of the time with the other hands.

If you just call his raise he will put you on a very likely big hand.

How should you play your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a "small reraise"? $1500?

Does he play perfectly postflop? Will he call all-in on an undercard flop with QQ/JJ?

I suspect that raise to $1500, call an all-in reraise, push any reasonable flop if he smooth calls, is best.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold.

edited: If he is going to put us on a very big hand, then I calling is fine -- but again, for him to do this, then we would have to actually also be calling with AA a majority of the time. Do you see why all these theoretical questions are so goofy? You assign a bunch of rules that all dont fit together.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that you don't understand this, but "The majority of the time I hold AA here I call" and "The majority of the time I call here I have AA or another very big hand" are two very different things. I think Sklansky is assuming that this reraise gets just-called very infrequently.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I've folded KK before.

But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play.

This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so.

If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
But once again these small stacks in Sklansky's example work in counterintuitive ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

140BB's is "small"? How deep do you guys play?

The action seems shallow cause of DS' overbetting, he hasn't been reading his Ferguson.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But once again these small stacks in Sklansky's example work in counterintuitive ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

140BB's is "small"? How deep do you guys play?

The action seems shallow cause of DS' overbetting, he hasn't been reading his Ferguson.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad, I thought this was 25-50 for some reason.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]


Thus you are ahead 5 ways, tying 1 way, and behind 6 ways when he calls or moves in. And it is important that AKo is not in this mix. So overall you are going to be behind 6:5.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your analysis is missing equity. the 6 ways you are behind, you have about 15% equity. 2 of the ways you are ahead, you have about 70% equity. Never do you have more than 85% equity I think, so you are behind on average more than you are ahead on average. I haven't really done any math on the original question, this comment is strictly on your analysis.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

need to know:

what will villain do on the flop if we flat-call?....will he auto-bet if checked to, and if so, how much?....

EDIT: also, what will villain do on the flop with QQ/JJ on particular boards and, does that change based on our preflop action of calling/reraising?.....

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

David basically you just created a math problem.

In poker if it was always this simple you would just do the math, and presto, you have the answer. The true problem in poker is you won't know those exact %. Maybe he has air 20%, maybe he has air only 5%, that's the tough part.

The hand can get even more complicated if you assume a small bankroll, or if it's live and there can be physical tells.

Sorry, I'm 6 tabling right now, so can't do the math, but I'm sure given a couple days time someone will.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

fnord,

You are right about your equity in the pot as it now stands. So just jack the stacks up to increasing levels with the same size blinds and then analalyze for each size stack.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I've folded KK before.

But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play.

This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so.

If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.

[/ QUOTE ]


A lot of this is going to depend on your read of the opponent's range of hands he would push/call a reraise with for sure. But an important factor here as well is whether other good opponents are able to get away with lesser losses holding KK when you are the one with AA. If that is the case, in which case you don't have such times making up for dumping with KK to AA yourself, then it pays to be more cautious with that type of player.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Make a pot-commit raise of 1500 more. Call if he moves in after that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming you play these stakes a ton and have a large bankroll I like this play the best. If he has aces and pushes it's the old cooler and you are going to go broke when you call.

If you make it 1500 and he smooth calls and it comes 442 how are you not going to go broke anyway.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I took this into account in my ev calcs. what I missed was he "almost" always folds QQ/JJ, I assumed he always folded them to a big raise.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
In poker if it was always this simple you would just do the math, and presto, you have the answer. The true problem in poker is you won't know those exact %. Maybe he has air 20%, maybe he has air only 5%, that's the tough part.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he didn't know that before.

You're supposed to be assigning percentages like this while you're playing, and then doing what is best mathematically... hence the math problem.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I've folded KK before.

But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play.

This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so.

If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.

[/ QUOTE ]


A lot of this is going to depend on your read of the opponent's range of hands he would push/call a reraise with for sure. But an important factor here as well is whether other good opponents are able to get away with lesser losses holding KK when you are the one with AA. If that is the case, in which case you don't have such times making up for dumping with KK to AA yourself, then it pays to be more cautious with that type of player.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player who can be too easily moved off of KK can be exploited.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I agree with that statement. But I disagree that many players are willing to risk those attempts so long as your overall game plan is not exploitable by your more easily being read to have that specific hand.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

It's not entirly a math question. If there is a flop a lot depends on the play after that. David made no guidelines for what will happen depending on what the flop brings.

I would probably call and re-evaluate after the flop. If it looks safe I will probably try and get as much money in as possible. Not deepstacked enough to let go of KK that easy, if opponent has AA, so be it.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I actually think this answer is pretty easy. Since you have equal decent size stacks you have to fold. If he has AA you will lose your stack, and If he has a smaller pair and flops unders hes going to play it hard like he has AA. I also think if you consider the player to be tight he probably has you tied at worst. Remember KK is a great hand, but it's just one pair. In Limit I pop it to the river unless u hit a bad flop of course, but in NL your better off finding a better spot since the Donks try their hardest to give you their money.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think this answer is pretty easy. Since you have equal decent size stacks you have to fold. If he has AA you will lose your stack, and If he has a smaller pair and flops unders hes going to play it hard like he has AA. I also think if you consider the player to be tight he probably has you tied at worst. Remember KK is a great hand, but it's just one pair. In Limit I pop it to the river unless u hit a bad flop of course, but in NL your better off finding a better spot since the Donks try their hardest to give you their money.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, are you serious?

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

push

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

This is a dumb maths problem.

Dumb because its taking a simple concept like conditional probability and making it stupidly complex with no added value. Rather like asking someone to work out the first 200 prime numbers in their head for kicks. Completely pointless.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

I call.

I don't understand the argument for folding. Sorry.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

You're ahead 3:2 against his range.

Mathematically, if the re-raise big is essentially all-in, it's a -EV play, considering he only folds about 50% of the time, and when he calls, you're a 10:9 dog (the folds gain you $635, 50% of the time).

If you re-raise small, and he re-raises you (~25% of the time), and you call all-in (because you are now getting the right odds), you're about a 5:4 dog. The other 75% of the time where he calls, you're ahead 4:3 if you magically get all in no matter what flops.

Re-raise big = slightly -EV
Re-raise small = +EV assuming you get all in sooner or later, or ? if he folds to x% of boards and y% agression with Z hand.
Call = ? (we really don't know what happens on the flop)

I think the point of the question is to not push vs. this Villain.

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

you see this is your problem..... you delve too much into this %age crap.... start going into a little more psychology and hand reading and your results will improve.

Stop wasting time with this crap.

10% this 8% that, blahh blahh blahh...... are you serious cuz?

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

borrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring

Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think this answer is pretty easy. Since you have equal decent size stacks you have to fold. If he has AA you will lose your stack, and If he has a smaller pair and flops unders hes going to play it hard like he has AA. I also think if you consider the player to be tight he probably has you tied at worst. Remember KK is a great hand, but it's just one pair. In Limit I pop it to the river unless u hit a bad flop of course, but in NL your better off finding a better spot since the Donks try their hardest to give you their money.

[/ QUOTE ]

give me a break.
by that reasoning you should fold AA preflop too because its only one pair.
i can't believe how many people are talking about mucking KK like its 55 just because someone raises.
i don't know what type of games you play in, but if your so quick to muck KK preflop to a raise maybe you should take your skirt and training bra and find another game.