($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1195)
Hero (t940)
MP1 (t1195)
MP2 (t1680)
MP3 (t930)
CO (t225)
Button (t960)
SB (t1930)
BB (t945)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises t120</font>, Hero calls t120, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t285) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets t250</font>, Hero ????

What is Hero's play, and what is UTG's range?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

It really depends on the villan

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Gah, sorry, forgot to post my read. Villain is loose and aggressive, but not super loose or super aggressive. Say VPIP of &lt;30%, PFR of &gt;15%.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

fold...

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

I can certainly understand why you smell something fishy but I think things are unclear enough in this hand to make folding the prudent move. I just don't see any way to figure out where you're at without pushing and then once you know where you're at you've either won the hand or are staring at 99 with two to come.

Also, I wouldn't take this bet as total weakness. It's a pot-sized bet, which a lot of people are big fans of as a standard bet.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

I think by cold calling this, you really butchered it. If he is truly a 30/15 I shove here as you his range definatly includes KJ, AJ and AQ.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

If the villain was making out-of-line raises, then shoving before the flop is also a good play. Given the way this hand developed (and that the villain raised UTG), I give him credit (barely) and fold here.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Since villian is laggy he could easily be contiuation betting ak aq maybe aj kq kj a10 if he has an overpair below kk your pretty much racing and a set doesnt seem likely because i doubt he'd raise 22 44 or 55 utg. Unless he has aa or kk your either racing or getting him to fold and considering theres 500 dead in the middle I think it's a good repush.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Villian won't fold any pocket pair to your push.

Fold.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

What could villain be holding that would be threatened by that flop? If there was a flush draw or even a straight draw and he made a pot sized bet, it's easy to believe that he's defending his hand. However when it's just him and me and no open draws, what would he make this bet with and why?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

He would make this bet with a medium/large pair, you know, the same sort of hand he represented pre-flop by 4x raising from UTG...

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think by cold calling this, you really butchered it. If he is truly a 30/15 I shove here as you his range definatly includes KJ, AJ and AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this range. How are you using those stats to include a raise of this magnitude?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Just fold.

You can't cold-call and risk only seeing the turn, not hitting it, and having to fold to a villain push. Even if he makes this flop bet with 99+, AQ+ - you're only 45% to win. But I think you're behind a medium pair an awful lot of the time. His bet is large because he's holding a pair that's vulnerable to overcards...and he knows a lone ace has that inside straight draw...plus there's the possibility you've got two clubs. I'd say a good 75% of the time, this bet is his way of protecting something that you're behind.

Calling doesn't work...pushing is simply too reckless at this point in the tournament.

Just fold.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He would make this bet with a medium/large pair, you know, the same sort of hand he represented pre-flop by 4x raising from UTG...

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry.. I'm not familiar with the "4xBB PFR from UTG with medium pair" play.

Usually you'll see JJ+ and AQs+ raise 3xBB from UTG. 4x more likely for JJ, AK, or even AQ(maybe).

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Really? That's very odd. Many players at the 55's play 88-QQ EXACTLY that way...

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

From what I've seen, they are generally middle of the road. Typically it's a hand that wants to take the pot down right there, but won't neccesarily fold to more action. At least from most players..

I could definitely see 88-QQ here.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

Thanks for the heads up, Unbreakable and Seadood228. I would never 4x w/ 88-JJ from UTG. Is this a leak?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, it is for them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I could see doing it with some of the higher pairs though, but it's very table dependant..

This hand is funny because I can almost see the thought process of the villian when he has a small overpair. He wants to find out where he stands, but after being pushed into, the size of the pot and the fact that he's got an overpair has him itching to hit the call button.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

No, you are playing correctly, they are not...

Just out of curiosity, how would you play JJ if you were the villain in this situation?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

If I was in the villain's situation, I'd strongly consider 4x raising with QQ-AA.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, you are playing correctly, they are not...

Just out of curiosity, how would you play JJ if you were the villain in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd PFR to 85, call a min-raise depending on the minraiser, fold to any re-re-raisers. Cbet the flop. Take it from there.

How about you?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

I would fold...
I think his 4xBB bet means he dosen't want lot of action. I would put him on 88-99, AQo, AJo.
As you called he will probably put you on TT or suited big cards, with AA or KK you would probably have re-raised.
With that flop he can put you on an inside straight draw and a flush draw if you have de big suited cards. So you from his point of view you have lots of outs, big cards, clubs and treys. So he'd rather bet a pot size bet to give you only 2 to 1 pot odds and see if he takes the pot there.
And if he didn't have the mid pair and had two big cards, he did a nice continuation bet.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

With a flush draw a possibility, a near pot sized bet isn't unusual, is it? Even without a flush draw, I would have assumed anything from about 2/3 to pot is about standard. Isn't it?

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think by cold calling this, you really butchered it. If he is truly a 30/15 I shove here as you his range definatly includes KJ, AJ and AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this range. How are you using those stats to include a raise of this magnitude?

[/ QUOTE ]

my stats are in that neighborhood and i would raise 4x with those hands no problem.

raise of this magnitude? i never make a raise that's less than 4x in any position.

i reraise with AK and call a push.

if i'm the villain and a made the preflop raise with AJs or something similar and just got called that's exactly the continuation bet i would make.

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

if you think his bet means he doesn't want action why do you fold?

i thought it was smart to play into someone that didn't want action. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the heads up, Unbreakable and Seadood228. I would never 4x w/ 88-JJ from UTG. Is this a leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, Definitely. It means that every time you raise
4BB UTG, your opponents know that you don't have a medium
or small pair. That is just too much information to be
giving away, and is too easy to play against.

OP....I think that reraising PF would simplify your life.

The flop is an easy fold.

Suerte,
Jonathan

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

We are not talking about folding before the flop....

Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
 

I think this is something straight out of Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Essentially, it's such a close gamble so early in the SNG, I fold so that I open myself up to more profitable situations later in the game. The problem with pushing the flop is that you don't fold any hands you want to, and if you call you're committing over 25% of your stack to this play. And depending on what the turn may bring, you are going to be hard pressed. Most of your equity comes from seeing both the turn and the river, and I don't think you'll get a cheap free card here. Fold.

Board: 2d 4c 5c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1816 % 37.27% 08.91% { AsKs }
Hand 2: 53.8184 % 44.91% 08.91% { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }

EDIT: As always, if there's a flaw with my thinking, please let me know.