27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

SNGPT has this as an obvious fold for any reasonable ranges (it's in the -1% range), but I think this push is reasonable because we will be forced to call a lot of marginal hand from the BB next time. Thoughts?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t1575)
CO (t1895)
Button (t3515)
SB (t3840)
BB (t2675)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t1550 (All-in)</font>

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I make similar plays. After the blinds pass we are left with a stack that, if we pick up AA, still only equals the 1575 we have now. I think its good to use the little FE that we have left, and just hope we dont run into an overpair if called, as A9/A7 shouldnt be calling.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I could agree with the push...But I also think this sets up an interesting dynamic for the other players who could be calling way looser because of that same idea...I for one normally call short stacks who go all in UTG way looser than other pos.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I could agree with the push...But I also think this sets up an interesting dynamic for the other players who could be calling way looser because of that same idea...I for one normally call short stacks who go all in UTG way looser than other pos.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I, but I still think you have to push this. That 79 is sooooooooooooooted baby!

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I make this push believing that the next hand is going to be more -ev than this push is -ev but I hope pudge or someone comes on here and sheds their thoughts.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope pudge or someone comes on here and sheds their thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope this in almost every thread

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I don't know if I like pushing this, you really don't need to get it in on your BB next hand if you fold. If you fold here, and get garbage for your BB and SB you're still left with 900, thats short in terms of BBs but if you double up you have a decent stack again. I think we can pretty easily find a better spot than this, if not in our blinds then in the next rotation even if we lose our FE.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I said I shove this but I think in reality I actually fold it. It's weird looking at hand histories and thinking about what you'd do. So much different than acting in live game situation.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hope pudge or someone comes on here and sheds their thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope this in almost every thread

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[ QUOTE ]

I said I shove this but I think in reality I actually fold it. It's weird looking at hand histories and thinking about what you'd do. So much different than acting in live game situation.

[/ QUOTE ]


QFMFT

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

What is QFT.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is QFT.

[/ QUOTE ]
Quoted for truth.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Easy push IMO

Ryan

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT has this as an obvious fold for any reasonable ranges (it's in the -1% range), but I think this push is reasonable because we will be forced to call a lot of marginal hand from the BB next time. Thoughts?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t1575)
CO (t1895)
Button (t3515)
SB (t3840)
BB (t2675)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t1550 (All-in)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]

This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

SNGPT says its a push if i have two of them on 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs and the other two 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?
Ive been SNGing for awhile and would never push witht aht crap....but that might explain why lately ive been losing..
WVj

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

SHOOOOOOOOOOOVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEE

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Easy fold for me.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?
Ive been SNGing for awhile and would never push witht aht crap....but that might explain why lately ive been losing..
WVj

[/ QUOTE ]
I think SuitedSixes nailed the logic.

If you push this UTG, some of your opponents will guess that you are pushing junk out of desperation, and call. Some of them will think you have a monster, otherwise you wouldn't be stupid enough to push UTG. Some are just waiting for you to blind out. Some just don't want to get involved. So pushing has at least a reasonable chance of picking up the blinds.

On the very next hand the tables have turned. Maybe you'll catch a monster, or maybe you'll have 72o and someone has absolutely pushed on you.

Would you rather have all your chips in with 97s and at least some chance of everyone folding, or would you rather have your chips in with a random hand and definitely go to showdown?

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]

This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

[/ QUOTE ]

nice, ok. thanks.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really all that junky. A suited one-gapped connector is a helluva lot better than a dominated A or K. I have a new mantra, "You gotta give yourself a chance to suck-out."

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really all that junky. A suited one-gapped connector is a helluva lot better than a dominated A or K. I have a new mantra, "You gotta give yourself a chance to suck-out."

[/ QUOTE ]

Best. Advice. Ever [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Here's a chance to make a big mistake by using Sng-PT, but not your brain.

Sng-PT does NOT(!) factor in the blinds next hand, it's just an ICM calculator for the hand you were just dealt that's all. This makes SNG-PT basically worthless in this particular scenario, and most likely shoving is correct.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

i like the push in this spot id do the same if i were in your shoes.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I have tried to quantify the effect off the big blind hitting Hero in the next hand. If we assume everyone folds if we folds in the original hand, we get in this situation:
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

Assuming all players play by the equilibrium ranges I have calculated Heros EV after each of the 25 possible outcomes of this hand, and weighted them with the chances of each outcome. My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.


Even if my presumptions are somewhat off, I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have tried to quantify the effect off the big blind hitting Hero in the next hand. If we assume everyone folds if we folds in the original hand, we get in this situation:
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

Assuming all players play by the equilibrium ranges I have calculated Heros EV after each of the 25 possible outcomes of this hand, and weighted them with the chances of each outcome. My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.


Even if my presumptions are somewhat off, I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, nice. thank you very much

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Very nice, but I have a problem with the statement "I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %." What is the $EV of the next (BB) hand after the two possible outcomes of pushing? Is it different than 11.13%?

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

I have not calculated the EV after Hero push. It will be too much of a job. There are 6 different outcomes after a Hero push. Each outcome results in 25 possible new situations to be evaluated. Even thou it is not correct to ignore the effect of the hitting of BB after a push I think it is much less affected than the position after Hero folds. If Hero loose he will have 0 chips, and the EV should be correctly calculated by SNGPT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If Hero push and wins he will have double the amount of chips, and be much less influenced by the hitting of the large BB. The biggest difference in Equity is when everyone folds to Heros push. Maybe I should calculate this equity… I might do it…

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

The "desperado" UTG shove, top secret standard play!
In the next hand we will have 3 BB's. Any decent player will push ATC out of the SB into us. We have to call this shove with any 2 cards geting huge odds on the $.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

What 6 different outcomes do you mean? If Hero pushes there's a lot more possible outcomes, especially if we consider multiway all-ins.

Overall I think by not pushing we give up so much $EV by getting hit by the BB that I fully agree with your analysis that -1% is not a problem at all.

BTW: SNGPT does not say it's an obvious fold. It's very close anyways. Not sure what ranges were assumed by OP? Certainly only the blinds are going to call with a wide range, but not the other players

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Assuming no overcalling:
This is the six outcomes I am thinking off:
1. Hero push and get called by another player and loose = 0 chips.
2. Hero push and get called by CO and win.
3. Hero push and get called by Btn and win.
4. Hero push and get called by SB and win.
5. Hero push and get called by BB and win.
6. Hero push and all folds.

Am i missing something?

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming no overcalling:
This is the six outcomes I am thinking off:
1. Hero push and get called by another player and loose = 0 chips.
2. Hero push and get called by CO and win.
3. Hero push and get called by Btn and win.
4. Hero push and get called by SB and win. I
5. Hero push and get called by BB and win.
6. Hero push and all folds.

Am i missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I see what you mean. But we don't need to overcomplicate things anyways. The key here is to analyze the NEXT hand, not the one we're dealt. In the next hand, our $EV drops like a stone if we fold, unless we pick up a premium hand, or it gets folded to us.

To make things simple, let's use real dollar values and assume it was a $55 buyin tourney, so we dont have to deal with percentages. Now we have a $EV of slightly more than the initial buyin, even if we push, around $57 or so. In the next hand, if we fold, this drops to $44. If we deal ourselves an average hand, say Q6o and call with it, it drops even further to $40, assuming someone pushed with a somewhat reasonable hand, say within 20-30% range. We gain a lot however if everybody folds. The question is: How often will everybody fold to us next hand? Probably not very often. Maybe 10% of the time. Which is not enough to compensate I think for the $EV loss.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

the biggest thing here is that 97s doesnt play that poorly against calling ranges. youre short as [censored]. All in.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

If you survive the push and double up or pick up blinds, you still have to pay(semi important word choice) the big blind next hand. but if u fold and go allin on the bb and survive there is a lot of value in having "paid" 67% of the "cost" for the next orbit. This seems very important to me and i rarely hear it brought up. once your M is below 3 this effect becomes huge and fold equity becomes very player dependant.

if the table is loose and chips are moving then this is an easy fold.

if the table is tight and no one seems to want to get involved this seems like a push.

any normal table and this is close.

i personally just keep feeling like im not playing tight enough. id feel more comfortable going with the concensus of "push" if someone would mention the value of surviving and having ur bblind paid for.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

The "desperado" UTG shove, top secret standard play!
In the next hand we will have 3 BB's. Any decent player will push ATC out of the SB into us. We have to call this shove with any 2 cards geting huge odds on the $.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think I would go as far to push ATC here

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

How is this thread so long. If you don't push here you are probably a mediocre sng player at best.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you survive the push and double up or pick up blinds, you still have to pay(semi important word choice) the big blind next hand. but if u fold and go allin on the bb and survive there is a lot of value in having "paid" 67% of the "cost" for the next orbit. This seems very important to me and i rarely hear it brought up. once your M is below 3 this effect becomes huge and fold equity becomes very player dependant.

if the table is loose and chips are moving then this is an easy push.

if the table is tight and no one seems to want to get involved this is definitely a push.

any normal table and this is a push, too.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just some small corrections to your post

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Ok, I have made some more calculations on this hand, to try to determine the equity after Hero pushes. I have made the following assumptions:
- When Hero pushes, the calling ranges are: CO (16%), Btn (18%), SB (28%) and BB (35%). This results in Hero being called 67,76 % of the times when he pushes.
- When wining after getting called, I assume the chip distribution is the same as when Hero wins over BB.
- The chances of winning the original hand is determined by how well 97s is doing against the weighted average of all players calling ranges (20,7 %).

When Hero is getting called his probability of winning the hand is 35,57 %, for an equity of 21,99 %. When no one calls his push Hero have an equity of 17,16 %. This comes down to an weighted equity of 10,83 % ((35,57 %*67,76 %*21,99 %)+(32,24 %*17,16 %)) after a push. Comparing this to equity of 11,13 % when he folds, I get that pushing is -0,3 %. Not as bad as suggested by SNGPT (-0,9 %), but still negative. Obviously I have made a lot of assumptions, which may or maybe not is reasonable. So take this result with a large pinch of salt.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

Thanks Bubblefish, to solve the problem completely however we'd have to estimate "adjusted" $EVs taking into account the BB we pay next hand.

The $EV for folding now drops substantially. On top of that, as several posters indicated, by folding we make the next hand an auto-call with any two which has negative expectation unless we happen to pick up a monster hand.

Re: 27s: disagree with SNGPT?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
How much do you think other players' actions after Hero folds affects our EV? SNGWiz gives folding 13.46% with default ranges (this incl other players shoving). The most likely match up is SB-BB and if BB busts in that hand we skip the BB. Nice. Maybe +0.5%? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]