I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

No good reads. Villain has taken a few shots at stealing blinds, but no other information. I c-bet the flop hopiing to take it there, but not sure what to do when a non-helping turn comes.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.2SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3.1BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to MP2.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I fire again on the turn.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

even though MP2 is a poster there are a lot of hands that can be calling that flop ...

since the pot is small check folding isn't bad ... but leading out is also pretty much close to standard

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I bet/fold and get paranoind that I am folding to much but use the small pot to make me feel better.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

This is between c/f and b/f for me, I usually b/f here but I think I should c/f more in a pot this tiny.

c/c sucks hard without a good read imho, and b/f ... meh pot is tiny, villain can have a lot of hands but basicly every hand he called the flop with he's gonna call the turn and then are what you gonna do when any non AK river hits? b/f again? c/c?


With 1.5-2 more BB in the pot and it becomes more interesting imho

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I normally go like this:

bet/call the flop
bet/fold the turn
check/call the river if a non-draw card comes in.

Yes. I'm a fish.

However, it is important that you never, ever lead this river UI. If you bet the turn and get called, there is no point at all in betting the river UI. You will never, ever get called by a worse hand. At least if you check/call, occasionally you will catch a worse hand.

Determining (through reads/stats/tells) weather or not you will catch a worse hand the required (in this case) 15% of the time, will go a long way to making you a winning or losing player IMO.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I would like to add:

My last point could be wrong. The fact that this pot will always be quite small could infact indicate that check-calling this river will at worst be a small mistake. However, I do feel that this situation comes up frequently, so I could be right.

Wow, I ramble a lot.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

On this turn, while frightening that villian called, he could be doing so w/ a lot of hands that you're ahead of. There is a flush draw and straight draw on the board, he could be calling hoping to catch his card. You really don't want to give him a free card in these instances, so I would personally bet simply because I'm good here more than 25% of the time.

Then again, betting and getting raised puts you in a very awkward position, and it's the reason that position is so important in hold'em.

So to make a long story short, I bet/fold more than likely here.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

bet/fold the turn

Why are we betting the turn? Value - are we ahead 50% of the time? If not for value then why? Do we fold a lot of hands that call the flop?

I don't think the rare occasion where you c/c a non heart non obvious straight river and win (what hands do you win again that bet the river btw? Ahxh yeah, and what else?) make up for every time you bet a BB on the turn when drawing to 6 outs, checkfolding possibly the best hand on the river, or just getting drawn out on? The worst hand he has on the flop that we beat is like T7o, which has a lot of outs.

Maybe I'm weaktight here but why are we getting ourselves in this spot OOP with AK high vs a loose passive villain (like the average .25/.50 player)? I just don't see the +ev. If you put villain on any two cards above 7 they all have a lot of outs, you are only calling non-draw completing rivers, and you are basicly counting on the extra BB when villain bets his missed draw - which I don't think is standard for a .25/.50 LAP. On top of that we are often already behind here, and a bet on the turn will never fold out a pair.

No, without good reads to assume this is not your average .25/.50 players I don't see why I should be b/f'ing and c/c'ing some rivers instead of c/f the turn. Please berate and educate me when I should do it in pots this size.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we betting the turn? Value - are we ahead 50% of the time? If not for value then why? Do we fold a lot of hands that call the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You only have to be ahead &gt; 50% of the time you're called for it to be for value. It's a semi-bluff.

Villan posted in MP2, which is a general indicator that he's not very good. Such a player will frequently peel most flops with almost anything. (How's &lt;- that for a conditional?) When you fire again on the turn he says, "Oh, you're serious?" and folds.

Basically you're in a blind-battle with a pillowcase full of marshmallows.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I'm trying to get away from the mentality that I shrink into, which is "Don't get yourself into any trouble, get away from it and wait for the next one."

Lately I've been feeling like I don't continue in the hands that I should, so I'm studying hands where I quit and see if it really was a good choice.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I'd bet the turn against many people, and give up if he calls.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to add:

My last point could be wrong. The fact that this pot will always be quite small could infact indicate that check-calling this river will at worst be a small mistake. However, I do feel that this situation comes up frequently, so I could be right.

Wow, I ramble a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's because this is a really marginal, heavily read-dependent situation. In 6max, stuff like this comes up all the time, and you really have to know if your opponent is the type of guy to call the flop and turn with A-hi or not to be sure of your play.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's a semi-bluff.

Such a player will frequently peel most flops with almost anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that, but that's a reason not to semibluff imho, this flop connects with 'almost anything' so it's not likely he's going to fold.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's a semi-bluff.

Such a player will frequently peel most flops with almost anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that, but that's a reason not to semibluff imho, this flop connects with 'almost anything' so it's not likely he's going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bozlax wins.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's a semi-bluff.

Such a player will frequently peel most flops with almost anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that, but that's a reason not to semibluff imho, this flop connects with 'almost anything' so it's not likely he's going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bozlax wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gee, thanks, Frito.

Kaby, this flop doesn't connect with "almost anything." It's always 2:1 that a flop didn't hit any given hand.

More to the point, not everything that connected with it is going to call down (for instance, wouldn't you like to get a fold out of 53o, here?); it's not likely you'll get a fold out of a made hand from this guy, but you've got to try, and betting a big turn card can't hurt that.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's always 2:1 that a flop didn't hit any given hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the vast majority of those hands have at least 10 outs, that's what I meant with connect, sorry if that wasn't clear enough.


[ QUOTE ]

More to the point, not everything that connected with it is going to call down

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that the a bad to average .25/.50 player does not call down with any pair here, that's what they do and that's why we value bet them to death.

[ QUOTE ]
It's not likely you'll get a fold out of a made hand from this guy, but you've got to try

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? (I mean, we only try if we think it's +ev right, and the pot is so tiny... I'm gonna try and pokerstove this, brb)

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

Kaby, the point is that you have no reason to think you're behind, but plenty of reason to think that you can take it down with a bet. Checking is just asking your opponent to bet, and you fold.

Also, saying the vast majority of hands have 10 outs is just wrong. A very small number has 14, a small number has 10, a larger number has 6, and another small number has 3. You also have no reason to think that your opponent will put you on UI overcards and call correctly (if my range is 99+/AJ+, should you call with KJ? 75?).

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

Mmm I can't edit anymore


Ok I tried to give the limper a big range like your average villain so let's assume he calls the flop with every ace, a lot of kings and queens and a lot of gutshots, stuff like that... also some random suited crap just because he's clueless. I don't know how accurate this range is but I think this is too loose (it's 53% of all hands). I removed AK and AA-KK, so this assumes he is like a 60/4 villain I guess. Bit too loose for a .25/.50 unknown?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,056 games 0.005 secs 4,611,200 games/sec

Board: 8h 3h 9c Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.541% 36.54% 00.00% 8425 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 63.459% 63.46% 00.00% 14631 0.00 { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q5s+, J5s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 53o, 43o, 32o }

If villain does not fold any of these hands (and I think it's very optimistic of you to think he'll fold even 32o) a bet is not for value. And that's assuming he calls stuff like every J5s or K2s.

So no, I still don't get it. There is no value in a bet.

We loose .36BB on a turn b/f if he never folds that we have to make up on the river to make a b/f +ev. If he bets all his hands when we check to him on the river and a blank falls (let's assume it's the 2 of spades), he still has 65% equity so a call would be -ev. And that's assuming he bets all hands...

When an ace falls and we bet river we win .77BB if it's the Ah if he once again calls all his hands (So also random T high hands - this is obviously a huge oversimplification in our advantage), .83BB if it's the Ad and .78 if it's the Ac.

For the kings it's .78BB, .79BB and .84BB

So when 6 cards fall we make .80BB on average. With every other card a call is -ev even when he bets all his missed draws so we c/f river UI.

So river expected value is (6/46)*(.80)= .10BB. Not enough to compensate for the lost .36BB on the turn.

A turn bet is not correct. How about c/c'ing?

Let's say villain bets every hand when we check to him, and will do the same on the river. Then we are risking 2 BB by calling to win 5BB and this is the best case scenario where villain bets all his draws. So in this case a calldown is +EV, but that's assuming villain bets every draw twice and that's just not going to happen, so that's not a good option imho.


So b/f turn is negative ev* and c/c c/c is positive ev but only under very unlikely circumstances where we need a read that villain is very agressive. We don't have a read so why not go for the neutral EV of c/f'ing?

*Unless you can make him fold a lot of made hands. But do you really think that is going to happen?


This is one of the first times I do a big pokerstove post like this so I'd also like to get comments on my methods and thinking process, thx!

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kaby, the point is that you have no reason to think you're behind, but plenty of reason to think that you can take it down with a bet. Checking is just asking your opponent to bet, and you fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

See my previous post (or please critique it when you think it's incorrect). We are behind to a very loose range on the turn. I know that checking invites our opponent to bet but a calldown is not +ev unless we have a read opponent bets every hand when checked to.

[ QUOTE ]
You also have no reason to think that your opponent will put you on UI overcards and call correctly (if my range is 99+/AJ+, should you call with KJ? 75?).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think my opponent puts me on a range. I think he goes 'oh bottom pair call' - or 'oh gutshot call'. Unless my pokerstove post is incorrect he has to fold pairs for betting to be correct and I just don't think he's doing that.

Everyone here is generally saying not to bluff at .25/.50, just value bet. Precisely because they'll call down with bottom pair.

So when b/f'ing is no good and c/c'ing is only good if he is very agressive why not go for the neutral ev play?

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
So when b/f'ing is no good and c/c'ing is only good if he is very agressive why not go for the neutral ev play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said b/f was no good? I'm sure as hell not calling a raise. Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play.

Dude, you're not firing the last barrel on the river UI if you're called on the turn. But if you don't fire on the turn in this situation, you're just begging people to limp in against you and wait for you to miss the flop and bet into you on the turn.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who said b/f was no good? I'm sure as hell not calling a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did, in a kinda long post that you seem to ignore [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img], because betting is not for value and we don't fold out better hands, thus betting is -ev.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

please elaborate? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Btw I never said b/f was neutral EV i think it's negative ev ... c/f is neutral ev



[ QUOTE ]
Dude, you're not firing the last barrel on the river UI if you're called on the turn. But if you don't fire on the turn in this situation, you're just begging people to limp in against you and wait for you to miss the flop and bet into you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not against firing again on the turn, i'm against firing on this flop&amp;turn because of the cards ... our equity is a lot higher on like a 27J6r board, there I'd fire again.

Also, do you agree or disagree that betting is -ev? If you agree, are you seriously saying we should make a -ev play at .25/.50 for metagame purposes? If you disagree, could you please point out where my pokerstove post is wrong?

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

Ok, this is wearing thin, so I'll try just one more time. We don't have a read, so in order for betting the flop and then check/folding the turn to be correct your default read on a .25/.50 player that posts in MP2 and then checks when folded to preflop has to include two things:

1. He won't call a bet on the flop without hitting the flop. (Note that if he'll call with any sort of draw, you're ahead way more than you're behind.)

2. He won't bet the turn if checked to without a made hand.

So, forget the math. You don't have enough information to put any meaningful math to it.

Now I'm done.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not against firing again on the turn, i'm against firing on this flop&amp;turn because of the cards ... our equity is a lot higher on like a 27J6r board, there I'd fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be more likely to fire again on the board in the OP than on the 27J6 board. Reason being that in the OP, there are a ton of hands that are worse than you that may call. Random heart draws that haven’t paired up, backdoor club draws that peeled and got their flush draw, gutshot/lower straight draws that haven’t got there yet, such as J7/T7/T6/76/75/65, or ace high hands. On your board, the only real hands that will call and are behind are again the ace high hands as well as straight draws with T9/T8/98. Everything else that called the flop is ahead.


Going along with your PokerStove post, if you have Villain on that range, I still like a bet. I agree that it isn’t exactly +EV, but I think it’s less –EV than check/folding. Yes, I agree that if he called the flop with a made hand, he’s probably calling the turn with a made hand as well, but there is a slight chance to fold out some better hands by betting, like 3x or 44-66 may fold now. Even if they don’t, we can’t check/fold because we have about 4:1 pot odds against a range that we are only behind 2:1 against. If we then check, it’s with the intention of calling if Villain bets every time. Problem is, a lot of the hands Villain will bet are ahead of us, and he may check behind with a lot of his draws, giving him a free card. Doing this pretty much let’s Villain get exactly what he wants with bets going in when he’s more than likely ahead (or bluffing) and not going in when he’s drawing.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

You have to bet the flop and the turn for the times that villian will showdown an ace high hand, and for those times that, in this particular case, will call a heart draw, or on the turn a club draw.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

This is too weak. You usually have to follow through on the turn.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

Thx nix. What's your line for the river if I may ask (I'm assuming a bet if you hit)? (blank falls, straight draw falls, heart blank falls, heart straight draw falls).

I think I get it now, while we never win money on the turn or the river, by c/f'ing the turn we auto-lose 33% of 3BB (1BB).

By betting the turn we lose .34BB and on the river we lose something like .25BB. However, we keep our 33% equity of what will be (and here I'm lost, do I have to count my own bets that go in on the turn&amp;river too?) a 5 or 7 BB pot. So that's 33% of 5= 1.66BB - .34BB -.25BB = 1BB. Going to showdown gets us 1BB while folding the turn gets us 0, thus we GTSD?

The math might be a little off but the idea is that as long as equity you give up by folding &gt; the losses you make on later streets by getting to showdown, you should get to showdown? Is this what you meant with Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play. bozlax?

So then the question is what's the best way to get to showdown and that's ofc b/f (folding doesn't get us to showdown but if he raises us his range narrows to pairs and we have no odds for our 6 outer so np) because like nix clearly said c/c gives villain a free card when we are ahead and we still loose 1BB when behind.

At the river we have 5:1 odds so we call every river card but the Th? Or is it more complicated?

Thx for the input guys I feel like I'm learning here ^-^ - I hope I'm correct

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

I think clearly you should have bet/ folder the turn. As you didn't I still think it's probably worth calling down.

Below is some shoddy math to back up where I'm coming from.

Lets assume that villain will call river bet, therefore final winnings will be 5.1BB.

If you are behind you have 6 outs, giving odds of 6.7:1 (or 1/7.7). If you win you get 5.1/7.7 = 0.66BB. If you loose you get 6.7/7.7 * -1=-0.87, giving you expected value of 0.66 -0.87 = -0.21.

If you are ahead, lets assume (quite conservatively) that you will still be ahead at showdown 70% of the time. Your expected winnings would be (70%*5.1) + (30% * -2as it would cost you 2BB) = +2.97

So, if you think you are only ahead 10% of the time here your combined expected value is (10% * 0.29) + (90% * -0.21) = +0.1BB. i.e. +ve EV from calling in this situation.

If you'd led the turn you could factor in the semi bluff benefit too.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thx nix. What's your line for the river if I may ask (I'm assuming a bet if you hit)? (blank falls, straight draw falls, heart blank falls, heart straight draw falls).

[/ QUOTE ]
If I catch a king or an ace, I’m bet/folding again, although that does leave me the chance of folding the better hand if he pairs the river with a busted heart draw (if he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for example). If a blank falls or if the board pairs, I’m check/calling, hoping to pick off a bluff. If the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] come off, I’m check/folding. Just about anything else, I hate it, but I’d probably check/call, although I tend to showdown too much. With the only read being he’s aggressive enough to attempt blind steals, I would give him enough credit to attempt some bluffs.

[ QUOTE ]
The math might be a little off but the idea is that as long as equity you give up by folding &gt; the losses you make on later streets by getting to showdown, you should get to showdown? Is this what you meant with Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play. bozlax?

So then the question is what's the best way to get to showdown and that's ofc b/f (folding doesn't get us to showdown but if he raises us his range narrows to pairs and we have no odds for our 6 outer so np) because like nix clearly said c/c gives villain a free card when we are ahead and we still loose 1BB when behind.

At the river we have 5:1 odds so we call every river card but the Th? Or is it more complicated?

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason that bet/folding isn’t 0EV is that unless Villain has a hand we are drawing dead against (JT, a set, or two pair), we have some equity in the pot, and I don’t think there is any way you can put Villain on two pair or better from the PF/flop action and any reasonable turn action. If we fold, we forfeit that equity.

To go along with your first quoted statement, I look at it like this. Going off the range you gave before, Hero is 36% (or just about 2:1) to win the hand on the turn. With ~3BB in the pot on the turn, our odds to showdown are 5:2 if a bet goes in on every street. Therefore, we should look to showdown. Against an aggressive opponent, this is usually done by check/calling the turn and river. However in this hand, we’ve shown that betting the turn is better than check/calling, since it’s better for money to go in when you’re ahead and behind than just when you’re behind (AaronW has said this in other posts). Then, you can check/call the river since so few worse hands would call a river bet making betting the river UI pointless.

Finally, it’s actually 6:1 to call on the river if Villain bets. Again, I’m calling just about any river, but you or others could make a case for a better range to call against.

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

Ok nix I understand it now, thx a lot for your patient explanation.

I agree with your river line btw

Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok nix I understand it now, thx a lot for your patient explanation.

I agree with your river line btw

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm late getting back to the discussion, but you worked it out in the meantime.

The only thing I'm going to disagree with Nix about is a bet/fold if a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ace or king falls on the river. I'm check/folding to the same 3 cards he is, and check/calling anything else. That solves some of the problems against hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].