Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

Maybe this question has been posted before (if it has, ignore me), but I was just thinking about it:

Let's say you're heads up at the WSOP ME, playing for $10+ million. 2nd is $5 million. You outlasted a field of 9000 players. You qualified for the ME on FullTiltPoker and will make an additional $10 million with the win.

BTW, ASSUME THAT YOU ARE AN AVERAGE JOE AND $20 MILLION IS A LIFE-CHANGING AMOUNT.

You know your opponent is an amateur who qualified online and plays goofy. But basically you know you are +EV against him.

You have 46 million chips.
Your opponent has 44 million in chips.

Blinds are 150,000 - 300,000 (keep it simple, no antes). Level just started and last 1 hour, 30 minutes.

You are on the small blind and dealt [As Ac].

Opponent raises to 1.5 million on the button.

You re-raise to 4.5 million.

Opponent moves ALL IN.

What do you do?

OK, I know maybe the obvious answer is call, but I raise this question because you have around 140 BBs left and you know you are +EV on the opponent. You may tell me there isn't a better spot than here, but you are playing for a once-in-a-lifetime situation, $15 million difference (maybe more based on sponsorships, etc).

So I thought that you might throw out the idea of always making correct long-run decisions because there isn't likely another situation like this to come up every again.

I almost think that I would rather give this spot up just play small pots and chip at him knowing I can beat him and find an even BETTER spot (with more than TWO out of SEVEN cards of my hand out) instead of risking your once-in-a-lifetime moment.

OK, so maybe he has an underpair like KK. Around 18% of the time you are going to get sucked out on. EIGHTEEN percent for a situation for $15 million. That seems like a lot to me.

Maybe he has AA. Risking your tournament life on a chop?

Maybe he has AK. Best case scenario, but he is still going to win it nearly 12% of the time if he is suited.

Thoughts?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

you are probably not 5 times better than him putting you ona better spot than with Aces.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

my thought is anyone who wont call AI with AA here wont make it past day 1

edit: like you

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

omg

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

But with 140 BBs and knowing you are an obvious +EV against him, don't you think that you have enough play to wait for an even better spot with $15 million at risk?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

If you're playing against this monkey, fold. Otherwise call.

- S

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

no

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
my thought is anyone who wont call AI with AA here wont make it past day 1

edit: like you

[/ QUOTE ]

Well notice how it's a SCENARIO. That means that I probably wouldn't fold AA in almost any other spot, but I'm talking about HEADS UP for $15 MILLION difference.

I remember an interview asking Phil Ivey about having KK (or maybe AA) in the BB on the first hand of the ME and all 9 players before him go all-in if he would call and he said that's a tough decision. He said he wasn't sure.

You're telling me this isn't just as tough of a decision? It's an insta-call?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing against this monkey, fold. Otherwise call.

- S

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so you're saying 140 BBs isn't enough to wait? What if you had 200+ BBs left?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

look at the odds of KK winning against 8 opponents
then look at odds of winning AA against 1 opponent

no its not a tough decision. yes its an instacall

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

I could have 1000 bb and i still call here.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

he said with aces he would call BTW as he knows he will still win more often than the others, although he may lose on this occassion. (ivey with 100k after 1hand = omfg)
here i am telling u its an insta-call. u r getting a little bit too theoretical. U R NOT GUARANTEED 2 WIN IF U FOLD. it is an easy easy call.

CALL, CALL, CALL

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
look at the odds of KK winning against 8 opponents
then look at odds of winning AA against 1 opponent

no its not a tough decision. yes its an instacall

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, good point.

But I guess my main point of this scenario is how many times are you in the situation to win $15 million. I would say for the average joe, this scenario would be the ONE and ONLY time.

I feel there are situations that you can play with 150 BBs that are WAY stronger than AA vs KK which is basically 80/20.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

i say call...i like my chances here. especially with 5 mil already locked up. but that's me. who is to say you will win even if, BIG IF, you get your dream scenario hand later on.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i say call...i like my chances here. especially with 5 mil already locked up. but that's me.

[/ QUOTE ]

scroll up. thats everybody. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I could have 1000 bb and i still call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your thinking? Just because it's the correct "long-term decision"?

How many times will you get to play for $15 million?

You're probably right though, I probably can't fold on national TV with AA, but I'm just bringing up the thinking.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i say call...i like my chances here. especially with 5 mil already locked up. but that's me. who is to say you will win even if, BIG IF, you get your dream scenario hand later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need a dream scenario hand, I can lock up a better situation with many combos better than 80/20.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

WOW UVE GOT IT. BECAUSE ITS THE CORRECT LONG TERM DECISION. AND....... ITS THE CORRECT SHORT TERM DECISION.
WAIT........ ITS THE CORRECT DECISION. PLZ END DEBATE.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i say call...i like my chances here. especially with 5 mil already locked up. but that's me. who is to say you will win even if, BIG IF, you get your dream scenario hand later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need a dream scenario hand, I can lock up a better situation with many combos better than 80/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even Phil Hellmuth calls here. He's much better than I. How do I fold. Seriously, I think we're all being leveled here.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

I wasn't expecting much from this kind of hypothetical, but this question is really retarded.

It would be more interesting if you were getting 5-4 pot odds to call an overbet push with a straight flush draw on the flop.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

IMO there is no way ur heads up in the ME against some1 who u have the required edge over. even if u did u would call.
i can see ur thinking prophet but its just wrong for this scenario

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

what better situation are you waiting for? a flopped royal or straight flush? maybe flopped quads or full house? i don't get it, i guess i am never going to win a big event. sounds like you need a sure thing, probably ain't gonna happen.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

"Uncle Frank, is this a joke??"

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

To paraphrase Paul Phillips, "my +EV edge comes from NOT FOLDING HUGE FAVORITES"

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

how are you sure you are going to get such a better situation? what if you hold TT on a T74 flop, and he goes allin? OMG he could have 89 or 56, maybe even with a bd flush draw, FOLD FOLD FOLD.

It's one thing to ask, what if you had QQ and you knew he had AK or even if you had KK and he had AKs, but this is super easy and if you fold you are a complete moron who overvalues their own ability and does not comprehend the concept of edge.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

I call with TT

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

Call, why does this have so many replies?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

FWIW...I had a similar situation 2 weeks ago in a smaller recent tournament (HU in FullTilt's Sunday 400K gtd, 2000 starters). However, the difference between 1st and 2nd was about 1/4th of my current bankroll. Also, I was pretty sure that "long term" considerations didn't apply, as I'm gonna be in this spot maybe once a year if I'm lucky. I held about 48% of chips; the opponent played like an idiot.

After playing a good number of small pots he open-pushed his 60BBs from the button (he put me all in, but if I won, I'd have 20:1 chip advantage, so it's essentially for all chips). I called with AhQh after 1 second cosideration. I had no doubts that it was correct to call.

[/brag]

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

OK, does this scenario change at all holding KK? It has to right?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

13 posts over the span of over 2 years and this is all you have to talk about?

EDIT: btw in reply to the original post, i call with [As Ac], but if i had [Ad Ah], easy lay down

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

call

its all a matter in Luck now you are dominating him POST FLOP

its all about luck now IMO

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

btw op, are you saying 5 million isn't life changing money? maybe not to about 5% of the field. in the famous words of charlie sheen's character in wall street..."how many yachts can you water ski behind."

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

My reply is only in response to the title, in which case, I'd ejaculate.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

My thoughts... you are +EV against this player because he is moving in when you are likely to have him crushed. You might've been plotting some elaborate trap to use in the future, but your opponent obviously wants to lose now, so don't disappoint him.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My reply is only in response to the title, in which case, I'd ejaculate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that before or after the money presentation?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

what better spot are you looking for??

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

Heh, I think it's an interesting hypothetical situation (with a pretty easy hypothetical answer), but I don't understand the personal attacks on the OP. Why can't people say their opinion without resorting to personal attacks?

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

LOL at this thread with KK I take my time look at live reads and stuff because I could potentially fold but only if I was very confident he had AA. That said I'm probably calling. AA is the easiest call ever like you can rarely get your money in as an 82% favorite that's a huge edge. If your folding to a shove you should shove over the top for 45 million total.

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heh, I think it's an interesting hypothetical situation (with a pretty easy hypothetical answer), but I don't understand the personal attacks on the OP. Why can't people say their opinion without resorting to personal attacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's asked so many times, the answer is in the FAQ. FAQ's answer is "No, next question!"

Re: Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?
 

beat: i actually read about half of this thread, when i coulda been watching my table...