Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Please, let me know why is your take about the following:


I have seen how the line is moved after some "hot" capper post a "free" pick in gambling forums with a lot of traffic.

If the movement of half a point in college basketball is worth like 10c; I think it would be profitable for the capper to post the wrong pick.

Just for example purposes. Lets suppose he wants to bet Northern Arizona, the line is Weber State-2, and lets suppose in the long run he wins 55% of the time betting NA+2. So that's a 5.5% ROI if the lines he bets are -110.

Now he post a wrong pick, he says Weber-2 is a Winner !!!!!, no analysis at all, since he only cares about winning money and for some reason, he wants all the people in the forum to be WINNERS !!!!

Since he's pretty "HOT", the forum moves the line to Weber -2.5.

Now he can bet NA+2.5 -110 or NA+2 +100 and this means in the long run, instead of a 5.5% ROI, he will have a 10% ROI in this game (basically he's paying no rake in the new line) !!!!!

Don't you think this is a pretty good incentive for him (or them, think syndicate), damn, almost doubling the ROI !!!!

Comments welcome

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Yes.

You don't even need to be right very often. Look at Ace-Ace. He's got a hooge following and you can see some of the line moves during CFB from his picks.

Not to mention using Kelly, you'd get more of a benefit shaving just a little bit off public record.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Or when gambling you could actually think about the wager you are going to place rather than blindly placing wager based on a post made, regardless of how successful the person making the post is. In sports gambling you can statistically back up almost any wager. If you follow games well enough and have a good sports IQ and some common sense, you can do fairly well over time. To crunch numbers or follow the hot poster isn't in my opinion giving much of an edge. The potential to manipulate a line isn't a new concept. It's done everyday on the stock market. I get faxes at work everyday with hot worthless stock that if you can bump it a couple of cents can make somebody a lot of money at others expense.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mmmmm, this is not true and it's fairly easy to cover those "losers" in a long season.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mmmmm, this is not true and it's fairly easy to cover those "losers" in a long season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its certainly theoretically possible that a hot capper could sandbag the occasional game intentionally.

i.e. for arguments sake the capper knows he is a 60% winner. on 2% of the games, the capper intentionally posts the wrong side and plays the opposite once the line shifts.

The capper increases his own win percent to say 63% (whatever the line move on that 2% is worth) and the public gets ~58%. Everyone is generally happy because the capper is still posting winners.

But there's no way someone like Fezzik for example can post 45% winners for long and expect to continue to sway the lines.

People follow because they see something working. They get burned, they are quick to retreat in my experience.

All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could find out before the fact, likely so.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could find out before the fact, likely so.

[/ QUOTE ]

You find out the next day. WMT is at same price.
You...?


edit: This is not to say blindly follow any random capper, quite the opposite, most people are clueless, of course. eventually anyone will run hot.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Loose analogy, but I get what you are saying. I was trying to make an equally as cryptic point.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

I have some comments for your response, don't agree with some of the points, don't have the time right now to comment. Probably in the morning.

[ QUOTE ]
All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if for you this is a maxim, this is completely irrelevant to this discussion. All poker advise in 2+2 is free, Are you suggesting nobody should discuss, criticize posts or poker ideas in the post because they are free?

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

I think this famous capper can only do it a few times before the people on the forum don't listen to him anymore because of bad advice. He will quickly lose his "hot" reputation most likely and then his WINNAAAAR posts won't work.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Sirio,

Definitely await a full response.

In the meantime: I'm not saying that discussing poker on 2+2 is worthless. Far from it...

I'm also not saying free picks are worthless either. I post my picks, I follow others picks. I've made money following others picks. I know people have made money following my MMA picks and my NFL game of the week for the last couple years.

But would I stake my life on a free pick someone posted on 2+2 or LVA or etc? Definitely not.

I guess to use an analogy to the poker side - you come to 2+2 and post a hand. You get pretty unanimous advice that you should play the hand "like this". Does that mean the next time you get that hand, you should play "like this"? Does it mean that "like this" is right, or that blindly following it without understanding whats going on underneath (why you should play it "like this") is even good advice?

No, the real value of 2+2 isn't posting a hand and getting advice on how to play it - its understanding WHY to play it that way and WHEN, not just what to play in this exact situation.

I think back to when Shania was first brought up here, for example, where you had people starting to blindly follow Gigabet/others playing style without understanding fundamentally why he was making those moves. A lot of otherwise smart players started bleeding away EV until they understood the WHY and not just the what...

Free picks are ultimately like someone posting how to play a specific poker hand. Can following that specific advice for a specific situation make you money? sure. Is it as +EV as understanding the fundamentals of WHY the move is a good move? Definitely not...

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have some comments for your response, don't agree with some of the points, don't have the time right now to comment. Probably in the morning.

[ QUOTE ]
All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if for you this is a maxim, this is completely irrelevant to this discussion. All poker advise in 2+2 is free, Are you suggesting nobody should discuss, criticize posts or poker ideas in the post because they are free?

[/ QUOTE ]

no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh??

I'm lost, I don't even understand your zealot in following such very borderline argument in this discussion.

I don't even know where it was proposed we should expect more from a free pick.

Man, you should live in a world where every decision you do has to have a monetary value in order to do it.

My posting this thread has nothing to do with me expecting some $$value, or with me being mad because I didn't get some $$ value by reading hot posters. I mean wth you got that [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I mean you could just answer, (even i think it was already answered),

"so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not"


which is relevant, but instead you choose to "explain" (critizice)??? why the "free" part is so relevant.

The argument I gave applies also to pay services. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

To some other poster who may chime in with this (or some other) irrelevant points IMHO:

The only reason for this post was to warn newbies about following hot capppers. It would have been nice to read something about this and about some other potential problems when I started. That's my only aim.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sirio,

Definitely await a full response.


[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, now I'm busy handicapping games [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I just wanted to present you some Math, where it's fairly possible for a capper to do this a high % of the time and still have a pretty good record, such that he's guaranteed to have followers and reputation for a long time.

And this is assuming the "hot" poster in the long run will post a >50% winners, most problably the HOT posters are just random dudes who will have hot streaks, and obviously the public-followers should lose the more they follow, since in the "beggining" of the streak (real or manufactured), most probably they were not following.
Oh, and these scammers can continue having followers also, they are just very, very vocal when they are hot, and they are awful quiet when they're cold, usually with no way to track their records, so it will be pretty hard for the usual observer to distinguish between all the hype, this is until he lose some good money of course.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Sirio,

you're absolutely right on all points that people should strongly beware blindly following others picks, and you're definitely right that a winning capper would in theory have plenty of room to throw a game every now and again and still be a winner.

Overall the most important thing to look from anyone who you're getting picks from is their record. Anyone who doesn't have a very clearly visible record. Its why one of the main things we try to enforce here is that anyone posting picks needs to visibly and accurately and clearly track their record.

And its why anyonne - touts or picks services or just those posting here that don't clearly and accurately post and track their records are generally someone to be regarded as caveat emptor ...

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh??

I'm lost, I don't even understand your zealot in following such very borderline argument in this discussion.

I don't even know where it was proposed we should expect more from a free pick.

Man, you should live in a world where every decision you do has to have a monetary value in order to do it.

My posting this thread has nothing to do with me expecting some $$value, or with me being mad because I didn't get some $$ value by reading hot posters. I mean wth you got that [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I mean you could just answer, (even i think it was already answered),

"so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not"


which is relevant, but instead you choose to "explain" (critizice)??? why the "free" part is so relevant.

The argument I gave applies also to pay services. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

To some other poster who may chime in with this (or some other) irrelevant points IMHO:

The only reason for this post was to warn newbies about following hot capppers. It would have been nice to read something about this and about some other potential problems when I started. That's my only aim.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay i'm lost, first part of your argument seems to indicate that you're teaching us "newbs" a lesson in your posts. yet you phrased your initial post as a question, so are you seriously asking a question or are you so attention-starved that you feel the need to dress up your "lesson" as a question in order to have more responses?

second of all, you indicated you're showing us some "maths" to open our "newbie" eyes. where/when was this done? are you referring to childish replication/explanation of roi, which i have already done at a much more accurate level previously? no seriously enlighten us commoners, where are these eye-opening heart-stopping mathematical conjectures that leave us breathless?

in fact, i would say the only reasonable maths displayed in this thread are from posters responding to your posts. so really.. who's newbie here? you put together some haphazard calculation of roi and use some window-dressing to teach us a principle that anyone reasonably seasoned in sportsbetting could've logically induced in the first place? wow, colour me impressed..

btw, you stated in your op that comments are welcome, so i can only assume you want to hear my comments. next time you don't want anyone going off on a tangent (which did not happen in my place, if you were actually sophisticated enough to understand my explanation), put this disclaimer on the bottom of your post "no posting pls, admirations only!"

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

trix,

Don't tap the glass.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Jesus man, I just don't get all the hate.

Don't give me the bs I'm teaching you "newbies" a lesson, please ... you are no fing newbie. In any case I am the one new to sports betting.
You have it backwards brother, the one who got mad it's you because I dared criticize your post and I guess I'm not allowed to criticize any of the self-called big "sharps" over here.

I'm welcome to comments about the OP, and any argument about why the situation it's not as I said. But your only argument was, "It's not a big deal because they are free", sorry if I'm used to criticize stupid arguments.

And about the Math part, where the hell did I say I have a sophisticated argument using Dirichlet convolution and complex variable to explain the principle about why there are many scumbags in sports betting?

Man, I just don't get it, why in the world a post like mine is bad for a newbie to read?

I started doing this short time ago, I did my homework, and tried to read as much as possible about this business, I read the FAQ (and a million other things and forums) and I didn't find anything about following other people picks, and I made the mistake of being naive about that particular issue, so I'm trying to help others to avoid that mistake. What the f you don't get about that?
Sorry if there's already a list of "big sharps" who are the only allowed to give "lessons".

I enjoyed your thread (posted by Performify) about being a sharp; but I really don't get your hate in this thread, really man, wtf [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

okay let me repeat my post in a different way. my contention is that in general, free picks are exactly 0ev. your original post seems to indicate free picks are -ev, this is wrong. b/c if that is correct, then in a zero arbitrage world, the inverse must be true.

in other words, fading the free picks must be +ev/profitable. does that make sense to you? that you can make free money by fading free picks?

in other words, when you see a free pick, you have no idea if it's +ev capper's right pick, +ev capper's wrong pick, -ev capper's right pick, -ev capper's wrong pick, a random capper's nose pick etc... so you might as well as assume it's absolutely random in the first place

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

trix,

Just because a capper is not a winner does not mean you can be a winner by fading him.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

exactly

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

Ok trix, now I get your point. But I can't find in my OP where I indicated so. I think I did that in some other thread, but I was half-joking there.

Following your example of a zero arb world; if you agree that it's +EV for a scumbag capper to post wrong picks and make the public follow him. Where did that +EV come from?

[ QUOTE ]
so you might as well as assume it's absolutely random in the first place

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmm, this is not always true, lets suppose some 50% dude (with a 60% boss, syndicate behind him) convince a forum he's the next big thing and he is unscrupulous and it's going to take advantage of this fact. Most of the time he'll be posting random picks, but once in a while his boss orders him to post the wrong pick, if you are following him in all his picks, of course you're doing worse than flipping a coin.

The fact we don't know if the information is good or bad, does not make the information random.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

actually thremp is right, i'm wrong

my example only works in a perfect world without juice, w/ juice it's theoretically possible to for both sides to be -ev. however, the claim that you should treat most free picks same as flipping a coin is still valid.

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

trix,

Yep. Your analogy holds as they are no better or worse than a monkey and darts.

On a side note: I was watching Cathouse on HBO and one of the hookers doesn't wanna bash random dudes. WTF?

Re: Moving the lines by \"hot\" cappers \"free\" posts, beware
 

That aside, the other problem is that if a handicapper acquires too large a following, the lines will move almost immediately and it will become very, very difficult to get down at the suggested number, i.e. Dr. Bob in CFB this year.

Fezzik did pretty poorly in football in 2005, but from the beginning of this year, it was still pretty tough to get down on his NFL totals. There were times I saw a play only 5 minutes after he posted and the line was already gone, even at slow moving books.