Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

$100r, on the bubble. Villain is Annette_15.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB (t14455)
BB (t62475)
UTG (t84793)
MP1 (t18194)
Hero (t66705)
CO (t32956)
Button (t7720)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t4000.

Flop: (t10600) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t8000</font>, Hero ???

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

Hero thinks for a bit, then makes it 18k-20k (10k-12k to go).

I should add I have no idea how Annette plays, but if this is a lower buy-in and someone tries to lead this flop to my PF raise, I'm re-raising and taking it down more often than not.

EDIT: The reason I say raise here, is because if Annette is like me, this seems like a pretty good flop to try and take down this pot without having any kind of hand. She could be on a flush draw, but if it is it's weak. Can she be on a straight? Not really. Can she have a set? I guess but why lead that flop? The most likely holding has to be an over pair or 2 overs with the flush draw. If you raise back, but small enough to make it seems like you're looking for action, she puts you either on a better flush draw or a higher PP. Both of those hands have her drawing dead essentially.

I make her kind of play kind of often in the lower rebuys, and you folding out makes that play profitable, as most people will fold this out. If you play back at her I think she lets it go.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

I folded. I thought it might be weak, but I am behind any pp and almost any ace.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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I folded. I thought it might be weak, but I am behind any pp and almost any ace.

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You don't think she might be floating on air here trying to take down a sizable pot on a weird flop?

Even if she does have a PP, a re-raise at least sends the message "My PP is bigger than yours"

The reason I don't push is because a push is screaming "I'm weak and want to take this down" and when you're called you're probably drawing very very slim if not dead. If you put in a little more than a min-raise though, it says "I'm not afraid of you, I want you in this pot, call me and let's go" and I have to believe she puts you on a decent PP or good flush draw with overs (and of course the 3 to the straight).

You don't think there's any chance she's folding to a 12k raise?

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

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How big of an ace would you need to shove? I kind of like a shove here because I think she has some sort of semi-bluff (either hearts or overcards) way more than she has a set/2 pr. I'm not sure how our kicker matters much unless you think she has 88-99 and is going to call our shove, then we get 3 more outs.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

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I think she could be folding a lot more than air here to a raise. I honestly don't know how she plays, and considering she's a good player this is probably a fold. Against weak players though, I think they let a LOT of hands go that have you beat, even dominated. Players don't like a raise PF and then get raised on their flop bet.

I'm probably massively swayed by the fact that I'm used to like $5-$22 rebuys and not $109+R against quality players. And I'm probably also swayed by the fact that I float air here against a weak player a lot. Although, clearly betgo is not a weak player, and nor is Annette.

I hate a shove here though. I think that's the worst play possible as you're pushing a lot of chips into a pot and she doesn't fold much that she wouldn't have folded to a smaller raise, in which case a small raise would've accomplished this. I also think she's calling a push more than a smaller raise.

If she calls the raise and checks the turn, I'm pushing. If she pushes the flop, I'm folding. If she calls the raise and pushes the turn, I'm folding. This is probably a HUGE leak in my game, but at least in lower buy-ins I've found plays like this to be a great way to pick up chips.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

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She is one of the best tournament players on the Internet. OPR has her ranked 3rd on Stars and 40th on FT, with about $500K on profit, which is partly from multiple final tables in the WCOOP.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

I guess my point was, do you really want to put 40% of your chips in against a player of this caliber when you have A7 high? I think the two most important questions here are "What does she know about your style of play" and "What does she think you know about her style of play?" If you can answer both of those questions, then maybe you can raise here sometimes.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

I think this is very player specific and a standard plan will fit at most half of the elite players doing this to you. Some do this with air probably 50% of the time, but others aren't. My read on Annette is that she certainly isn't doing this with complete air and even if you're ahead with the Ace, she's got a good draw you still would have to fade / hope to tie with your 7
Note this is based on data more than 2 months old since I massively curtailed online play since moving to LA and finding cash games available to my liking (Annette may have moved on from this strategy), but I always seemed to end up in LP a lot with her in BB and have 5 instances of her flat calling preflop raise and leading out the flop - I shoved all of them and got 1 laydown and had to face race/showdown on the others with Annette holding AK, AQ, Ax where x makes TPTK, and one sickening massive combo draw (FD+OESD with one over card to the board).

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

Well that changes my opinion drastically, as I have no idea what her style is just that she's one of the top MTTers.

Isn't it like 1/3 of your chips anyway? And that's kind of my point, putting that much of your stack in she's gotta be thinking you have some kind of goods.

If I had any idea her style of play (not one to float here) then I'd be folding without any thought. Against a weaker unknown, I'm taking my original line and expecting to see a laydown very often on the flop, and almost always when I push the turn (pushing turn is kind of dependent on what turn is, though).

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

call or raise or dont raise annettes blind tbh

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

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How big of an ace would you need to shove? I kind of like a shove here because I think she has some sort of semi-bluff (either hearts or overcards) way more than she has a set/2 pr. I'm not sure how our kicker matters much unless you think she has 88-99 and is going to call our shove, then we get 3 more outs.

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i think bigger aces make up a decent part of her range

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

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How big of an ace would you need to shove? I kind of like a shove here because I think she has some sort of semi-bluff (either hearts or overcards) way more than she has a set/2 pr. I'm not sure how our kicker matters much unless you think she has 88-99 and is going to call our shove, then we get 3 more outs.

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i think bigger aces make up a decent part of her range

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And she calls a shove with them?

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

Isn't shoving here WAY overbetting the pot?

There was a 6k raise PF with 2 callers to make it 12k plus the SB and antes for 13.7k. She bets 8k into the pot on the flop which is now 21.7k, for you to call it'd be 29.7k, and you have 54k+ left.

So, I guess it's not way overbetting like I originally was thinking. But still, am I wrong in thinking she's more likely to call a push with a weak-ish (but semi-made and better than yours) hand than a smaller raise?

I'd really like to know what some of you guys think of my line on this.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

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My thoughts precisely.

If someone weak bets into me as a pf raiser, i will raise 2/3 pot, and usually either get shoved on, or folded.

But, this is a big bet, into a pf raiser where all our chips are on the line, and we may even be drawing very slim or dead.

And after reading about Annette, i think i def. fold this

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

I shove this all day

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

The lead into the raiser was sort of interesting because this is basically an action flop. Any ace has a gutshot and an over pair looks good. If I had a legitimate raising hand like AK or JJ, I would probably want to put the money in.

As it is, with A7, I am about 30% against 88+ and about 23% against AT+. Annette calling in the BB could also have hit the flop harder with low cards.

It is kind of hard to figure out whether she is taking a stab at the pot, has a hand similar to mine and doesn't want to be pushed off of it, has some kind of draw she is willing to go allin with, or has a big hand and is leading into the raiser hoping for action. Of course this ambiguity is part of what makes her a strong player.

I think part of the lesson is that I shouldn't have raised her blinds with a marginal hand, as another relatively big stack on the bubble.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

How about a call? Do you think she is firing again with air? I don't know how she plays, but alot of players will give up on the turn, and if she has something like a pair of 8's alot of scarecards can come on the turn. My only concern is that we probably aren't deep enough to do this.

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

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How about a call? Do you think she is firing again with air? I don't know how she plays, but alot of players will give up on the turn, and if she has something like a pair of 8's alot of scarecards can come on the turn. My only concern is that we probably aren't deep enough to do this.

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I think we tried that on a different betgo hand (though that time he had flush+inside straight draws), but it turned into disaster and quite frankly I can't imagine it going much better here. Raise or fold look much better and make your turn decisions much easier.

What if an 8 to K shows up and she follows up with a 2/3 pot bet? Calling pretty much equates to striaght up loose passive play here, it's not tricky and it's not helping define our opponent's hand so that we can either raise/bet or fold the turn. What if an Ace or a 7 show up? Calling is all questions and no answers and unless we hit it's disaster if she follows through on the turn (and still disaster in some cases that we do hit).

cjx

Re: Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop
 

Looking this over, I like my fold. I tried to steal the blinds on the bubble, got called by another big stack who is a top player, missed the flop, and got bet into.