There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

That's what I've been told about this hand. But, well, I'm bored so I'll post it.

Charged up live 40-80 Hold Em game. A tight player raises under the gun. Three people coldcall. I call in the cutoff with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The BB, a solid but not over-the-top aggro pro, also calls.

The flop comes 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Not bad. BB checks, UTG bets, one caller, I raise. It's folded to the BB who now takes the action to three-bets. UTG then caps the betting. The limper folds and I call to the obvious frustration of the UTG player. The BB also calls.

The turn brings the 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB now leads out, UTG calls, I call.

The river brings the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB bets, UTG mucks in frustration. Your action.

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

i must have misread something, because i can't think of any reason why this isn't a raise. the real question is what to do if 3bet.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

You've rivered most of his range. 75s makes up only three combos. Raise-call.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

What in his range still bets the river? What do you think he puts me on after cold-calling preflop, raising the flop and calling the cap, then just calling the turn? If he reraises, what percentage of the time would you say I am being pushed any money?

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
What in his range still bets the river? What do you think he puts me on after cold-calling preflop, raising the flop and calling the cap, then just calling the turn? If he reraises, what percentage of the time would you say I am being pushed any money?

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably out of my element here, but a couple of thoughts.

Couldn't he put you on A7 of diamonds, or thereabouts?

More specifically for his hand, his line seems much more like a set than 75 to me. Wouldn't 75 check the turn to the capper, to let you guys put bets in the pot before raising?

I'd raise the river.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

the board's not paired, there's not a flush. the guy has represented nothing but an overpair and has given us no reason to believe anything different. raise so he can make a crying call or 3bet with TT. don't get me wrong, i suck and may be missing something. but i'm raising, calling a 3bet or capping depending on my mood, and dragging the pot a reasonable amount of the time.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
the board's not paired, there's not a flush. the guy has represented nothing but an overpair and has given us no reason to believe anything different. raise so he can make a crying call or 3bet with TT. don't get me wrong, i suck and may be missing something. but i'm raising, calling a 3bet or capping depending on my mood, and dragging the pot a reasonable amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB just called preflop...

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he put you on A7 of diamonds, or thereabouts?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he puts me on this, what purpose would be served by betting the river?

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't 75 check the turn to the capper, to let you guys put bets in the pot before raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think so. But the capper showed obvious frustration with my immediate call of two more cold which was clearly not an act. So perhaps the BB figured there was a greater than normal likelihood of the turn being checked through. And, if it was an act by the UTG player, maybe he can get three bets in.

FWIW, I was convinced I was against a set on the flop and turn. The river was where one could see being a bit concerned.

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

I highly doubt I am going to get three-bet here by a set. After all, if I had a lower set, why would I not raise the turn if I was going to raise. Why would I raise the river when what would be a scary card for me comes out? Also, if I 4-bet him, that would not be a cap and I could be raised again.

Maybe you play in games that are much more loose aggro than I do, but if I get reraised I am dragging this pot somewhere in the realm of never against this opponent.

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
i must have misread something, because i can't think of any reason why this isn't a raise. the real question is what to do if 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You lose if 3-bet and I don't think a human alive can fold. This is a call.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he put you on A7 of diamonds, or thereabouts?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he puts me on this, what purpose would be served by betting the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, UTG was still in the hand, so he certainly could just be betting for value against him. Against two players on that river, you're not checking and expecting to have someone with a missed draw take a stab at it, right?

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you play in games that are much more loose aggro than I do, but if I get reraised I am dragging this pot somewhere in the realm of never against this opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you feel this strongly then act on your convictions as its a specific read against a specific opponent which we can't share out of the moment. Against 95% or more of the planet, a raise is in order here.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he put you on A7 of diamonds, or thereabouts?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he puts me on this, what purpose would be served by betting the river?



[/ QUOTE ]

Because he thinks he has the best hand. You look like a missed flush draw. Why not bet the river? Wouldn't you? I would.

Only 1 hand beats you. Raise it and call. If he has 75, more power to him.

b

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

yeah, dude, he's betting that river for value out of his set from one of you two. He's not putting UTG on a 5. UTG looks like a frustrated overpair. He can pretty easily put you on diamonds, possibly 2 pair. There are a ton of hands that he is betting for value here. This is worth a raise.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

you have to raise the river, even if getting 3-bet puts you in a tough spot.

raising and calling a 3-bet has a higher expectation than just calling even if he only 3-bets 75. he has a set too often.

if you know him well enough that you can fold, go ahead and fold to the 3-bet. the raise isn't close though.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]


You lose if 3-bet and I don't think a human alive can fold. This is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Why risk 3BBs to win 1.5 (assuming he calls the raise 50% of the time)?

The guy played this hand like 75. On every street. I mean yeah he also played it like a set, but if I had 75 I'd play it similar to the way he did. CALL. (But there is something to post about -- Jeff; it's closer than you might think even if it is a call).

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Why risk 3BBs to win 1.5 (assuming he calls the raise 50% of the time)?

[/ QUOTE ]

he has a big hand here and is calling the raise close to 100% of the time when he doesn't have 75. if he's calling the raise only 50% of the time, you're not bluffing nearly enough.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed. Why risk 3BBs to win 1.5 (assuming he calls the raise 50% of the time)?

The guy played this hand like 75. On every street. I mean yeah he also played it like a set, but if I had 75 I'd play it similar to the way he did. CALL. (But there is something to post about -- Jeff; it's closer than you might think even if it is a call).


[/ QUOTE ]

He calls almost every time because of the size of the pot, and unless he defends with 57off every time, there are more set combos in his range than there are 7 high straight combos.

You cant fold to a 3bet because he will 3bet you with hands that chop knowing that you NEVER have a 7 high straight. He could be pulling this with other pair+draw combo hands like 56s, 35s or 45s. Or he could have defended with 52s. And that's before you factor in the possibility of erratic play, or misreads of the board. Folding to a 3bet is absurd.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i must have misread something, because i can't think of any reason why this isn't a raise. the real question is what to do if 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You lose if 3-bet and I don't think a human alive can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i could. but then everyone here would yell at me.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop drinking.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

I thought this was an easy raise but when you consider that the BB check-3bet the flop it certainly looks like he flopped something big. Whether it was a big draw or a big hand you cannot know for sure but 75 looks very possible. If he has 33,44,66 or TT then raising might be the best play. Does he have 33/44/66/TT often enough here for you to raise the river? what about 65? yeah, I think you can raise the river and call.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
he has a big hand here and is calling the raise close to 100% of the time when he doesn't have 75.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to go to work so I don't have time to get to all these posts. But this is where I think you may be wrong - I think, if he had a set, he would lay it down some portion of the time to my raise (and not an insignificant percentage). But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc. But I don't think it's a given he pays off a raise with less than the same hand I have. And I think it is FAR from a given that he will bet a set here - again, maybe you have to be there. Good thread. Results later.

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

with at least 4 others going to see this flop?

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

Another point is that, it is unlikely that UTG is going to pay off a river bet, caught in the middle of two players when the deuce slides off. He is not blind or retarded. Against a total tard that will call KK here despite the deuce falling, the BB still firing and his relative position, maybe it would be different.

Jeff

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

i cannot possibly see 44,66,TT not betting and calling that river. 33 probably bets and i'm pretty sure he's counting on a call from utg rather than yourself.

but i would always go with my read though it'd be really hard for me to not raise this.

can you bluff raise this a small but not insignficant portion of the time? if you can, doesn't this make it an easy bet/call with a set from his perspective?

the pot is humongous and i doubt anyone but a crazy bluffer will be folding, so i would doubt he is bet/folding here.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
Posting blind cuz I'm too lazy to read this whole thread.

I agree 100% about preflop.

The flop and the turn are pretty much standard so I'll move on to the river play.

The river is basically a math problem. For example, If you believe this guy would call the BB with 64o,63o,43o,52o,75o,33,66,44 and play all these hands the same way every street then you have a profitable raise/call situation on your hands. If you think this guy wouldnt call with offsuit garbage thus making his range 64s,63s,43s,66,44,33,75s,52s, and again would bet the river with all these hands then its an even more profitable raise/call situation.

The river play gets more complicated if we look at it from a logical/psychological perspective. For instance, If we believe this guy would not bet the river with a set cuz he fears a straight, then obviously all we have is a crying call on the river.

So whether we should raise/call this river or just call depends on what we think this guy will do with his 2pair/set hands on the river.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is what you believe Jeff then youre right, there is nothing to post about. Follow your read and just call the river.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to agree with DD on this. I probably would have respected the UTG raiser & mucked preflop. Small suited connectors are good for mixing up your play & the only way I see this as being +EV is if you hit the kinda flop Jeffage hit. It was about as good as you can ask for without flopping the nuts.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
But this is where I think you may be wrong - I think, if he had a set, he would lay it down some portion of the time to my raise (and not an insignificant percentage). But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc. But I don't think it's a given he pays off a raise with less than the same hand I have. And I think it is FAR from a given that he will bet a set here - again, maybe you have to be there. Good thread. Results later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff:

Assuming that we are talking about the Borg 40/80 game, I think your assumptions are wrong unless the villain is some sort of superhero. He is betting the river with a set because unless you have a 5 his hand is still good. He is calling a raise because the pots too big. It comes across in this thread as if your projecting the results onto the villain (perhaps not, but thats how it comes across), I think your giving him too much credit in a vacuum as you make your river line decision. Raise, call a 3 bet as you pray. Waiting for results, but I think we all know what they were.

PS: I'll play 54s on the button getting 9.5:2 immediate odds, but unless I know the button is folding I pass in the CO.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

"I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close"

to say not close is completely wrong. you have decent equity, the hand will play well against a field and in position, and there's deception value. it's not a homerun as the hand has it's wealth of problems as well, but it is definitively "close".

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

W/UTGs most likely hand an overpair, it seems like the easiest turn c/r ever w/75s

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
W/UTGs most likely hand an overpair, it seems like the easiest turn c/r ever w/75s

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if the BB had 43, this would still be a very easy turn check/raise. So the fact that the BB donked the turn doesnt really change his range. It just means that the BB doesnt know how to play monsters.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

Call.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I highly doubt I am going to get three-bet here by a set. After all, if I had a lower set, why would I not raise the turn if I was going to raise. Why would I raise the river when what would be a scary card for me comes out? Also, if I 4-bet him, that would not be a cap and I could be raised again.

Maybe you play in games that are much more loose aggro than I do, but if I get reraised I am dragging this pot somewhere in the realm of never against this opponent.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i play in games where my opponents tend to suck in an overaggressive fashion.

that said, as bugstud pointed out, i got mixed up on wtf was going on so it kind of changes the situation based on what i said earlier. it is closer than i originally thought, and even based on your super solid read i think it's a raise if you're doing everything else you're supposed to be doing.

sorry about the earlier confusion on my part. we are really only worried about one hand, right? 75? in fact, against some players we can really only be worried about exactly 75s, which cuts the likelihood even moreso sinces there's only 3 combos of it.

if you're read is that solid, can you fold to a 3bet? how often do you think you're getting 3bet by the "not over the top" guy? he only 3bets the nuts HU on the end? seems like he would be great to play against.

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

with at least 4 others going to see this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be close. The main problem is there's no high card value.

b

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

I am absolutely dumbfounded that EVERYONE is not saying raise here.

RAISE

If he raises you back and has 5 7 then god bless him.

But there's a [censored] of players out there (99%+) who would have played this hand the same way with hands other than 5 7.

I should point out that my only point of reference is the Foxwoods 20/40 game and I'd raise that river 100% of the time against every player in the room.

RESULTS
 

Ok, I'm going to quickly post the results because I have to go to Happy Hour. In the actual hand, I did raise. As soon as the fourth stack of chips hit the felt, I realized I made a mistake. Not because I lost mind you, but for the reasons I wrote about in this thread. Again, maybe there was nothing to post about because it's too specific to this villain and this game and blah blah blah. But, I drew for the straight, I made the straight and I raised. And I did that with no consideration for why my opponent is still betting and the other factors I mentioned.

He paused and reraised. I called to look at 75o. It's Miller Time - good thread as usual guys.

Jeff [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm going to quickly post the results because I have to go to Happy Hour. In the actual hand, I did raise. As soon as the fourth stack of chips hit the felt, I realized I made a mistake. Not because I lost mind you, but for the reasons I wrote about in this thread. Again, maybe there was nothing to post about because it's too specific to this villain and this game and blah blah blah. But, I drew for the straight, I made the straight and I raised. And I did that with no consideration for why my opponent is still betting and the other factors I mentioned.

He paused and reraised. I called to look at 75o. It's Miller Time - good thread as usual guys.

Jeff [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Just as an afterthought of all of this, I think the fact that you consider this player good enough to correctly fold a set on the river to your raise makes a big difference. There just aren't many people who you can legitimately make that claim of. If your read is that concrete then yeah, a raise probably doesn't have value outside of not having to show what you cold-called with PF if he folds.

Good hand to post though, somewhat similar to the river hand I posted, the inclination to raise when you hit a big hand is hard to overcome. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: There\'s Nothing to Post About
 

[ QUOTE ]

RAISE

If he raises you back and has 5 7 then god bless him.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, the ol' "if my opponent has me beat than GOD BLESS HIM!" argument. My favorite statement in support of bad play.

Don't worry about God blessing your opponent. You're the one blessing him with 2 extra bets.

"The final board was 88846 and I had KK so I bet and he raised and I 3-bet and he 4-bet and I 5-bet and he 6-bet and I called saying if ya got quads then god bless you!" God had nothing to do with you going 2 bets too many.

[Note: another common derivative of this delusional thinking is "if he has the nuts then more power to him!"]