TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $179.60
Hero: $49.35
SB: $56.05
BB: $41.15

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.25, BB folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc3333">SB bets $3.35</font>, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, SB calls $6.65.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($23.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero ???</font>

Villain appears to be thinking TAG type 26/11/2 - after 50ish hands I've not seen him get out of line....

What should my line be and what range do you put villain on?

is my line so far OK?

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

If he is a "thinking player", and if he hit a flush, he realises that a diamond on the river will kill his action, so he'll bet the turn with his flush and try to extract money from you before the board pairs or the 4th diamond shuts you down. He checked, so if he has a flush he is a donkey [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So if he is "thinking", then the queen probably scared him.

It is quite possible that he hit a set, and is frightened by the flush on the board, so he wants to see a free card to boat up.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

He could have AK or KQ. He led into the PFR on a flushing flop, so I'm thinking it's less likely he's made the flush. It's possible he has a set and is playing it scared. I don't see a whole lot of hands that you beat after that turn. I think I check behind on the turn and call a small bet on the river if he leads.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

I was thinking AQ/AK , didn't think about the set. As villain is pretty tight and so far has only seen me bet big when I SD premium hands maybe If I come out firing on this turn with a PSB I can take down this pot here...

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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I was thinking AQ/AK , didn't think about the set. As villain is pretty tight and so far has only seen me bet big when I SD premium hands maybe If I come out firing on this turn with a PSB I can take down this pot here...

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If he's a thinking tag I think the only way you're going to win this pot is by representing a flush (decide on the turn if he's good enough to laydown KQ, remember if he has a set you have to commit your stack, betting the turn and the river, $10 now, the rest on the river if the board doesn't pair)

EDIT: this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

Against an average opponent I would Half pot bet on the Turn and check down River and call a 1/2 pot bet on River. However...

Will a thinking TAG call a Flop raise with KQ on a draw heavy board??? I doubt it.

With a set he would reraise the Flop to kick draws out.

The way it was played highly suggests flush draw- semibluff then calling with implied odds.

Which dictates check down.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

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I am quite happy running bluffs at these limits - but only when I'm sure my opponent is good enough to lay down a hand after committing a decent # of chips facing some serious heat.

I think this villain is more than capable of such a laydown so a bluff here is a viable option.

and if I'm going to bluff then I am going to do it with my whole stack or not at all. Against "thinking" opponents who IMHO are the only ones you can successfully bluff anyway you can't give them a sniff of weakness or they'll just call you regardless.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

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I am quite happy running bluffs at these limits - but only when I'm sure my opponent is good enough to lay down a hand after committing a decent # of chips facing some serious heat.

I think this villain is more than capable of such a laydown so a bluff here is a viable option.

and if I'm going to bluff then I am going to do it with my whole stack or not at all. Against "thinking" opponents who IMHO are the only ones you can successfully bluff anyway you can't give them a sniff of weakness or they'll just call you regardless.

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fully agreed

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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Will a thinking TAG call a Flop raise with KQ on a draw heavy board??? I doubt it.

With a set he would reraise the Flop to kick draws out.

The way it was played highly suggests flush draw- semibluff then calling with implied odds.

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I thought a little decided he probably has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx or Qx - and is capable of laying down a set/straight here is I represent a made flush.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($23.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero bets $23.5</font>, <font color="#cc3333">SB raises all-in $44.55</font>

ah.

OK so I am likely drawing dead here at best - IF he has a set theres a slim chance I'll draw a K - if he has 2pair theres a slightly fatter chance I'll outdraw him - I'm pot committed here now tho aren't I? Is it worth $20 to discover what he has make appropriate notes and relearn a painful lesson about how you aren't supposed to back TPTK with an entire stack?

This lesson is really going to sink in one of these days...

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

Matrix-

Why did you make a full PSB bet on the turn?

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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Why did you make a full PSB bet on the turn?

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to represent a made flush. Villain sees turn comes [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and checked to me = weakness...

I believe villain to be capable of layng down a set/straight here if I turn up the heat and he thinks I have the flush. I have only bet like this and shown down good hands (i.e better than 2pair) up to this point. Also If villain is a thinking TAG there's no way he can have a made flush as why would he call my flop bet with awful odds if he has a clue ... (?)

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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Why did you make a full PSB bet on the turn?

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to represent a made flush. Villain sees turn comes [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and checked to me = weakness...

I believe villain to be capable of layng down a set/straight here if I turn up the heat and he thinks I have the flush. I have only bet like this and shown down good hands (i.e better than 2pair) up to this point. Also If villain is a thinking TAG there's no way he can have a made flush as why would he call my flop bet with awful odds if he has a clue ... (?)

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Come on, would you really make a full PSB with a flush on the turn?

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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If he is a "thinking player", and if he hit a flush, he realises that a diamond on the river will kill his action, so he'll bet the turn with his flush and try to extract money from you before the board pairs or the 4th diamond shuts you down. He checked, so if he has a flush he is a donkey

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I think leading into Hero on the turn after they raised on the flop screams huge hand. I don't think checking and letting the Hero bet is such a bad idea. They raised after all, and will probably bet the turn.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

yes I would.

and before you say anything - yes I usually raise my fd's as well.

why is making a PSB here (assuming you do have a made flush) a bad thing?

this is SSNL - value bet your good hands and the donkeys pay you off...

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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I think leading into Hero on the turn after they raised on the flop screams huge hand. I don't think checking and letting the Hero bet is such a bad idea. They raised after all, and will probably bet the turn.

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I do have quite an aggro image - so he probably is checking the turn hoping I am going to bet at it. Which of course I did.

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

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There are certain pots where you try to win them even though you know you are behind. This is not one of those pots, especially with position. I think I check behind on the turn.

Resultage...
 

So...

I make a PSB on the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn and villain pushes.
I call.

Villain flips A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain is no longer on my list of "good players I ought to avoid"

I was so wound up after losing this hand I had to quit playing for a few hours.

It wasn't the hand that particularly upset me it was the conversation afterwards...

Me: that was a bad call on the flop
V : If you had raised the flop anymore I would have laid it down.
Me: but a bigger raise would have overbet the pot..
Me: stupidly I thought that you weren't stupid enough to draw to a flush facing a flop bet that big.
V: It's hands like this where most of your profit comes from
V: Cash games are very often misunderstood.

Me: gets up and leaves table before the urge to throw my monitor out of the window gets the better of me....

Then later I did some math and worked out that a) I should have made a full PSB on this flop - I thought I had - but I hadn't - my bad.

b) If we replay this hand 4 times and assume that:

i) I am going to donate my whole stack to a flush here
ii) I am making a PSB on the turn regardless of what falls and despite being stupid enough to make a bad flop call villain will fold the hand if no [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the turn.

then in the long run I make on average ~$4 per hand so villains call is -EV. I will take what crumbs of comfort I can from knowing that at least my account at the Sklansky bank has just grown a little.

Anyone for chocolate biscuits?
Howabout a game of "pin the tail on the villain?"

Re: Resultage...
 

think of his implied odds though...he got your whole stack because you didn't expect him to show a flush

Re: Resultage...
 

I thought about his implied odds when I did my maths later...

unless I am way off base in the long run I still come out on top...

he's got 9 outs once - 4.22-1 (we'll go with 4-1 to keep this simpler)

as played he calls $6.65 to win a potential $54.70 (the pot$16.85 plus the remainder of my stack $37.85) 8.5-1 - sounds good. (?)

so this one time he is up and now has 44.55 (remainder of his stack) + $6.65 (his call) + $54.70(pot + remainder of my stack = $105.90 (discounting rake)

the other 4 times where a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] doesn't land and he folds to my PSB he loses a total of $46 and I win $94.

So after 5 replays

once he finishes with $105.90 (+$49.85) v my $0(-$49.35)
four. times he finishes with $44.55 (-$11.50) v my $61.35 (+$12)

So here I've won $48 - and lost $49.35 - net loss of $1.35

However this is working on odds of 4-1 not the true odds of 4.22-1 and if you factor in that extra .22 then overall I make a net profit of [fanfare] $1.29 - (er not $4 a hand at all - my bad) so it all works out marginally +EV in my favour.

I am still happy tho as +EV is +EV so I still gain in the long run - Had I made a flop bet of ~$12 or a real PSB of $13.55 (which is what I intended I just messed up) then I gain lots more - (especially if as he told me afterwards he would have laid the draw down)

I hope my math is right here - please feel free to point out where and why it's wrong (if it is)

Re: TPTK - vs thinking TAG.
 

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this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

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I am quite happy running bluffs at these limits - but only when I'm sure my opponent is good enough to lay down a hand after committing a decent # of chips facing some serious heat.

I think this villain is more than capable of such a laydown so a bluff here is a viable option.

and if I'm going to bluff then I am going to do it with my whole stack or not at all. Against "thinking" opponents who IMHO are the only ones you can successfully bluff anyway you can't give them a sniff of weakness or they'll just call you regardless.

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fully agreed

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Yes... but, villain's line easily includes sets. Getting someone to lay down a set here is -ev. Further, your line looks like TP, which devalues your liklihood of a flush.