friday nba plays
 

wedn we had an 0-3 day:( For -3.30 units. All games were close until the 4 th quarter but none of the 3 teams could hang on and cover.

Also I had the rather unpleasant experience of someone messaging me on yahoo complaining. He was rather insulting. So....let me say a few things before I post the plays.

1. This method I am using has been applied only over 364 bets. This is not conclusive to the long run profitablility of this method. Its encouraging but in no way a guarantee making money.

2. If you lose money betting these plays if you need to blame someone for your loss the only one you have to blame is yourself. You elected to make these bets.

3. If you dont have a good money management strategy in place you in all probability will lose all your money because of variance.

4. So far the biggest drop has been around 5 units. That is consistent with a method that has a 13 percent return...So this is also encouraging....but..... at some point I would expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown.....if you are betting an amount that this would cause you a problem....you are betting too much.

and finally 5. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If your not a professional every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being a successful professional gambler.

If this discourages you from following these plays then I have accomplished what I have intended to accomplish. For those of you that understand all of the above...good luck!

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/


Only 1 play today in the nba that I can see...also looks like no plays again in the nfl this weekend. Also I am now on betcascade..so my plays are all -105. If your laying -110 you can expect about 2 percent less return.

Washington/orlando under 205.5 -105


Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-1 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-9-1 +16.66
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-26 +7.31
Nba
Side 54-47-1 +4.72
o/u 19-10 +8.73

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 33 bets + 8.52 units +25.82% Return
Total 364 Bets + 47.33 units +13.00% Return

Re: friday nba plays
 

If everyone had a decent understanding of probability theory then it would keep complaining down. Nothing worse than hearing someone cry because something that's going to happen here and there.

Re: friday nba plays
 

I've found that the people that whine when things aren't going their way, are the same jerk-offs that never say thanks when you've done them well. Don't sweat it - there are a milliion idiots out there.

Re: friday nba plays
 

All good points, Rick, and anyone who understands sports betting is already comfortable with all of these. Those that don't belong in some sort of BBV sports betting. Perhaps they should be redirected there, or just sic Thremp or ImBen on them to get a good chewing out.

I'm probably going to Cascade as well, just looking for more opinions on their long-term viability/commitment to the US market before comitting funds there.

Unfortunately, I'm on the other side as you for the NBA total, and your totals have been money. Just gotta see how the game plays out, as it's a question of pace, with Washington having a strong history Over that total and Orlando having a strong history Under, and to be determined which tempo they will be playing at, with their matchups this year suggesting the faster pace.

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't sweat it - there are billions of idiots out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed.

Re: friday nba plays
 

Don't sweat it riccja, keep up the good work

Re: friday nba plays
 

Don't sweat the idiots. We're responsible for ourselves. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Can't wait for your take on baseball.

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also I had the rather unpleasant experience of someone messaging me on yahoo complaining. He was rather insulting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen some depressing posts on 2+2 over the years. This is high on the list. Many of us appreciate your time so just a thankyou from this corner.

Lori

Re: friday nba plays *DELETED*
 

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Re: friday nba plays
 

to rick, thanks for the great work. i really appreciate it.

Re: friday nba plays *DELETED*
 

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Re: friday nba plays *DELETED*
 

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Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is a joke. Anybody that bets with him is losing money. I don't even know the guy but him saying "theres no nfl plays this weekend" makes no him a complete poser of a handicapper. And only one NBA play? Comon' man, step your game up.

Good Luck though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice first post Nick. You're obviously unaware that the OP is making his plays from a system using line movements. There are obviously no plays in the NFL this weekend which meet the criteria of said system.

It takes alot of game to develop a system and then alot of stones to stick with it to see if it's profitable.

I did check your blog. Ummmm.....sorry. You seem to be the type of bettor who flips coins and is clueless as to value. That's no way to make money my friend.

Stick with it Rick. I by no means blindly follow your plays but do enjoy seeing how your system picks fare.

Re: friday nba plays *DELETED*
 

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Re: friday nba plays
 

I went to his blog and first thing I saw was

"Tonight is a gift. You cannot lose tonight's bet if you have the sensibility to put your money on a sure winner."


Amusing.

"You cannot lose."


I think perhaps we need to ban/exile sports-bettors who use such "it's a guarantee" type language from this forum.

We have a community of people who are approaching this stuff from mostly the same direction. And people like this guy just don't fit.

Nothing to do with 'allowing different views' or anything like that.


How do we describe those with something that at least approaches a sharp mentality from the rest of the riff-raff.


I'm an example of at least appraoching a sharp mentality.
I'm not a sharp. But I'm smart enough to know that I'm not going to win 70% of my picks or to claim that something is a 'guarantee' or something like that.


Anyway, OP should definitely ignore the haters.
There are lots of idiots out there who will get mad at you if you miss 3 whole whopping picks in a row.


Dr. Bob even said something very similar in the recent article about him in the WSJ.
Idiots demand that you run hot all of the time and have zero concept of variance.

Re: friday nba plays *DELETED*
 

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Re: friday nba plays
 

Actually, I saw PHI +3.5 somewhere else. Might have been able to find it.

I actually do like MIA in this game too but hardly think it's a 'sure thing'.


I lost all discipline today and placed a bet on every game. I actually was liking a lot of the lines I was seeing....and then I just got carried away.

Maybe I should have parlayed all of them!!

SAC -4.5
CHA +5.5
NJ -3
NOK +15
DEN -1
TOR -1.5
MIA -3.5
MIL +6.5
POR +15
DET/MIN -1.5/+2.5 middle


edit - just realized, no bet on WAS/ORL game.

Re: friday nba plays
 

Nuked the nickmondo spam/haterade and corresponding hijack portion of the thread. Tried to leave in any other comments that were in hijack posts, apologies in advance if I missed something.

-P

Re: friday nba plays
 

The post by NICKMONDO about the game tonight is the Epitome of square thinking. Anyone who read this posts in this thread and then his blog should have automatically faded his Mia pick. His sure thing has turned into a blowout...by the 76ERS.

Re: friday nba plays
 

Sadly I'm with that donk on the Miami play (-3) but they just tied it up and are now down by 2 so let us gogogo

Re: friday nba plays
 

hahaha, I spoke too soon it looks like.

Re: friday nba plays
 

Tied with 1 min left, suck out one time

Re: friday nba plays
 

oh well. I'm almost glad that guy lost even though I lost too.

2-2 in games that are final so far.
NJ will make it 3-2 if they hang on.

Re: friday nba plays
 

crap, I jinxed NJ.
Blew a 13 point lead with 3 minutes left and won by only 1.


DET/MIN looks promising. Tie game with 5 mins left.
If DET wins by exactly 2 it's a big win today.

And now they're having a fight which is even more exciting.

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Washington/orlando under 205.5 -105



[/ QUOTE ]

Woohoo, a little luck! Total was at 204 with 1:23 to play. Ended on 205 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Washington/orlando under 205.5 -105



[/ QUOTE ]

Woohoo, a little luck! Total was at 204 with 1:23 to play. Ended on 205 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Sadly I believe it was 207. CBS got 207 but Yahoo claimed 205 for quite a while after the game, but are now showing 207. More annoying because Yahoo is correct over CBS about 90% of the time.

Lori

Lori

Re: friday nba plays
 

ESPN and NBAcom are both showing the final as 104-93.

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
ESPN and NBAcom are both showing the final as 104-93.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you get anyones hopes up, I think you meant 114-93.

Re: friday nba plays
 

oops. yeah

Re: friday nba plays
 

went 5-4 for +$20.

SHIP IT!!

Re: friday nba plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sadly I believe it was 207. CBS got 207 but Yahoo claimed 205 for quite a while after the game, but are now showing 207. More annoying because Yahoo is correct over CBS about 90% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Just noticed this. That sucks [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]