10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

so villain in this hand plays TAG for the most part. he doesnt show down too many bluffs but he is definitely capable of making a move. his value bets are generally on the bigger side.

effective stack is 2300.

3 to the flop, i limp 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP.

flop (60): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check to me, i bet 60, sb folds, bb calls.

turn (180): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bb leads 80, i make it 260, bb makes it 800, i call.

river (1780): Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bb leads 1100.

call? what do we put bb on? should i have played this any differently?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

I think villain has straight/666 here 90% of the time

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

I would push, assuming you don't have much left anyway. My guess is that he has two pair. The only hand I see you being behind is 4s7s.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain has straight/666 here 90% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

The only straight I can see is something like 2-4 or 4-7 suited and even then it's debatable.
Any other straight makes no sense. Villian's calling a pot sized bet out of position with 3, maybe 4, outs?

A set of sixes sounds logical the way it's been played but K-6 and K-5 make sense too.
After all, from villian's perspective you might only have something like Kx here and he's way ahead.

So my money would be on the two pair the most likely, set of sixes second, set of fives third, a straight way last unless it's specifically coupled with the flush draw (an unlikely combination).

Overall, this seems like a call. I don't know if I have the balls to push the river though.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Ender,

"The only straight I can see is something like 2-4 or 4-7 suited and even then it's debatable. Any other straight makes no sense. Villian's calling a pot sized bet out of position with 3, maybe 4, outs?"

This sort of "analysis" makes me sick.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

fs,

He bets 1100 into 1800 pot on river leaving himself 300? That's weird. Anyway, this is a guy who sometimes makes big moves and was in the BB. You have a set. Just stick the extra 300 in there and see who has the best hand. Sure he could have you beat, but no reason for him not to have something like two pair or A5s.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

People just dont check-call on the flop and then bet/3-bet the turn with 2 pair out of the blinds. He either has a bigger set or perhaps 47 (4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). Against a str8, counting implied odds, you have odds to see the river - but the times he has 55 or 66 and you are drawing near-dead make counter-act this. Tough move, but I think the right thing to do is fold to his 3-bet on the turn. Def. fold the river.

D

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

I could expand upon my analysis but I guess I'd need to know what about it makes you sick.

But I'll preemptively expand on what I think you're getting at:
Overall, villian has huge implied odds to hit his 3-4 outer (four if villian thinks it unlikely hero's on a flush draw). With stacks of 2300, calling 60 isn't that big a deal.

But in order to call for the implied odds, villian has to be sure he'll get paid off when he hits. This is a pretty raggy board. How does Villian not know Hero's not just taking a stab at it in position and will dump it quickly to any resistence? Villain bucks the odds, hits his miracle card, bets out, and hero folds it?

After a preflop call and a single bet, what does villain put hero on that will pay off that straight with enough money to make the flop call correct?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Ender,

"what does villain put hero on that will pay off that straight with enough money to make the flop call correct?"

#1: Who cares if the flop call is "correct" ?
#2: Is villain allowed to bluff?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

He was BB why couldnt he have a straight?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

i agree with you diablo.

i have been noticing a trend lately in this forum that when assigning a hand range to the villian, bluffs are very rarely considered.

ie. we have 45% equity against a range of X, so we should do Y, yet the idea that villian is makiing a move (which happens more and more as you move up) isnt brought up.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Siri,

WTF? OF COURSE HE COULD HAVE A STRAIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

My analysis didn't include bluffs only because my conclusion based upon his legitimate hand range was to call anyway. So including bluffs as part of his range wouldn't change that conclusion at all.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

D104 has given the best response so far in this thread.

This is a fold on the turn!

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
My analysis didn't include bluffs only because my conclusion based upon his legitimate hand range was to call anyway. So including bluffs as part of his range wouldn't change that conclusion at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

just bc your conclusion w/o bluffs was to call, doesnt mean your analysis shouldnt include them.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Ender,

Your analysis is horribly flawed because of so heavily discounting straights as a possible hand for villain.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

It seems from his play that the 5 on the turn helped him. He could have taken one off from the flop and hit the straight, but I think its just as likely he had K5.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Realistically, this should be a turn fold. Sometimes he's overplaying 2 pair or just decided it would be great to try and bluff when you show lots of strength postflop, but realistically, tags do not 3 bet hands worse than bottom set with non-deep stacks on the turn in this game when it was limped around preflop. Expect to see 4s7s or 666 here 95% of the time.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

well played. Push river.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

The people who are advocating a fold here are underestimating the possibility of Villain holding 2 pair, IMHO.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

i should add this was on stars... do you guys saying this is 2 pair really think someone 3 bets turn in unraised pot with just 2 pair? a TAG? to me this really seemed like either a set, a straight, or a bluff... and given how little people actually bluff in unraised pots, i think i still believe folding is the correct play. but i'd love to hear opinions on whether they call or fold given the pot odds if they believe the only hands we are beating is a bluff (which i do).

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

fs,

To me and many people I play with, AA is the nuts. Two pair? That's like a royal flush.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
fs,

To me and many people I play with, AA is the nuts. Two pair? That's like a royal flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm in the same boat b/c I only play SH. Its almost impossible for me to laydown two pair or a set.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fs,

To me and many people I play with, AA is the nuts. Two pair? That's like a royal flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm in the same boat b/c I only play SH. Its almost impossible for me to laydown two pair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

then again, based on what I have seen of your play, you dont play many unraised pots

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

I don't play too often in full ring games, or unraised pots, but do you think a TAG would call a pot-sized bet with an inside straight draw when he can't be sure his implied odds are good? And he gave you a free card on the flop, and the odds to draw to a flush on the turn, so it seems to me like a set is unlikely. I'm not saying he doesn't have either hand, but it makes a bluff more likely, since his line doesn't make a lot of sense with any hand.

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

This is a fold and I don't think it's remotely close, especially given villian's description as being a "TAG"

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

Call - what have you got to lose?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call - what have you got to lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

$1100?

Re: 10/20 bottom set in unraised pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Call - what have you got to lose?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



$1100?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol...

RESULTS!!!!
 

I FOLDED!!! YIPPEEEEE!!!

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

No chance you put him on K6 in the BB?

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

he's not dumb enough to 3bet this turn with K6. why would he be this dumb? this is just dumb...

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

fs,

Would you raise his turn bet if you had K3s or K5s?

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

yes, but i'd fold to a reraise in a heartbeat. and that's obvious i think, so unless he all of sudden decided to turn this into a bluff, i dont think theriver bet is in line with that.

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

fs,

If you knew this opponent were Chaos or HEK would you call?

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
fs,

If you knew this opponent were Chaos or HEK would you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

how could you fold?

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

Turn fold to the 3-bet is definitely the way to play this hand. Don't you think a TAG with two pair would just call the turn raise and lead/block the river rather than 3-bet? He's 3-betting because he wants to get the money in and isn't really worried about anything other than the spade draw.

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

both players in this hand are at least somewhat regular at stars 10/20; so theres almost no chance hero is value betting 2p on the river here. Both players are fairly good, and (i'd imagine) have at least a decent amount of respect for each other.

(i saw the hand go down)

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
(i saw the hand go down)

[/ QUOTE ]

me too.

Re: RESULTS!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(i saw the hand go down)

[/ QUOTE ]

me too.

[/ QUOTE ]

me three.