$100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $437.10
CO: $92.50
Matrix: $95.35
SB: $93
BB: $113.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Matrix is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix raises to $5</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($16, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix bets $10</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix bets $25</font>, UTG calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($86, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix is all-in $55.35</font>

Villain is unknown but seems pretty tight so far.
Hero is 20/20/6

Spew? or am I repping AA/KK nicely here?

what kind of read do I need to make this play??

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I would basically never make this move. I would certainly never run it against a bad player. Against a good, disciplined player, you might consider trying it if you have a very ABC image.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I'm not crazy about this -- if he had put you on AA/KK, wouldn't he have folded on the turn? I'd check behind and hope to see JT or lesser [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s.

Also, in general, I'd like a more solid read before I push a bluff this hard.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

against an unknown, no.

I think once he calls that turn, he will typically call most rivers. If your looking for extraction, I would usually bet the turn harder so it would enable a river shove to be a bit smaller compared to pot size.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I pulled this move yesterday and it worked out for me, but I think it is a bad play. After the turn bet, you don't leave yourself enough to bluff him off anything that would call the turn except a missed flush.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I don't hate triple barreling sometimes, but both turn and river were mostly blanks (except for 68). I'd just check the turn, FWIW. OOP I'm more likely to double barrel/block the turn with a flush draw.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key to this hand. If villain was purely on a draw too, you win this at showdown anyway with Ace-high. You might get a fold from TT or JJ, but other than that what are you hoping to fold? I really don't think a queen folds here. If the river were a king or an ace (if you didn't have it), I would consider this play if I had a read. I think you need a scare card to make this play profitable. In this spot, I think the only hands that fold here, you already have beat.

-Jaxx

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I can't think of what hands call 2 streets but fold the river ... except for maybe a worse flush draw

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

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I see your point. I don't have any mathematical basis for this, but I believe that villain having a queen is more likely than villain catching a piece on the river. The bet doesn't have to work everytime to be profitable, though. I still believe checking behind is best.

-Jaxx

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

Villain could be drawing with either [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s or JT.

matrix, I've had that same experience of checking the river and losing to a better busted hand, so as played, I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.

But I would check the turn, and maybe even the flop. As NLHETAP says, tend to semibluff more when your draw is not to the nuts, than when it is. You have a nut draw, and you're being offered free cards on both the flop and turn. And unlikely as it may be, if any overflushing is going down this hand, you're going to be on the happy end of it.

So against the strong possibility that villain may be calling down with a better hand than we have, and the small chance that we have a draw to stackage, I definitely check the turn; and depending on how the table is playing, maybe even the flop.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.


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Link? Is this referencing an earlier post or something?

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

You haven't read the stickies (????)

fimbulwinter post

3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

This is kind of my thinking behind my river push here (yes I'm bluffing "big" - but I can't see less than a push here being called if villains spiked some crap pair on the turn/river given how big my stack is in relation to the pot)

Also if I check behind an observant villain will see what cards I'm betting with here - if he folds he doesn't get to see my hand.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.


[/ QUOTE ]

Link? Is this referencing an earlier post or something?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ohhhh, yeah. See #3

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I would never 3-barrel an unknown, NEVER. Also, look at his stack size. He's probably not a weak player. Take your free card to the nuts and check behind on the turn.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

Missed it by *that* much....

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

my b, apparently i didn't read all the stickies.

edit: ok i did read these, i just have the memory of a goldfish.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

i also agree that betting the river here is a mistake (esp since in position). There are more things than just a queen that will call the river having called the turn bet.

I would usually not bet the turn (this is read dependent) but if you do I would be more since you want to take the hand down there and its not a value bet.

If i was "repping aa or kk" i wouldnt bet 10 into 16 on the flop either.


Cheers

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

stacksizes a bit awkward for this due to multiple callers preflop.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

if you didn't beat a draw then you should bet, you do so you should check.

True

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

I'd check behind on the turn.

As played, meh, I don't mind hailmarying the river that much.

Be prepared to get looked up by QTo if he's bad though.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
You haven't read the stickies (????)

fimbulwinter post

3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

This is kind of my thinking behind my river push here (yes I'm bluffing "big" - but I can't see less than a push here being called if villains spiked some crap pair on the turn/river given how big my stack is in relation to the pot)

Also if I check behind an observant villain will see what cards I'm betting with here - if he folds he doesn't get to see my hand.

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Thing is, fim is betting there to get better draws to fold.

That would apply to this hand if YOU were pushing JT hoping villain folds the NFD. But this is the other way around -- you essentially have the nut no-pair here and this doesn't apply; you have the best hand very, very often if he was drawing, and if he wasn't drawing, he probably won't fold.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

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This is the sort of bluff you should be making with small diamonds, not big ones.

EDIT: To clarify, you need to focus on what you want your opponent to fold. Fim talks about making people fold your hand when he has even worse. A standard 3-barrel bluff generally intends to make people fold something like a good TP or if you have more balls than sense, an overpair. The first bluff works because there are lots of hands better than yours that can't stand up to even a small bet. The second bluff works because most hands (played by solid players) won't stand up to a huge amount of betting. You seem to be trying to bluff a very small class of hands (draws that turned or rivered pairs) and you're spending a lot of money to do it. It's just not worth it, unless you have a read that you can fold more than the bizarro improved draws.

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the sort of bluff you should be making with small diamonds, not big ones.

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exactly, if river is check check, and villain turns over a busted draw.... you win!

don't fold out the busted draws if you beat them

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

i think you need to know if AQ will call to the river...most will here @ around 2.5:1

Re: $100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd
 

[ QUOTE ]

This is the sort of bluff you should be making with small diamonds, not big ones.

EDIT: To clarify, you need to focus on what you want your opponent to fold. A standard 3-barrel bluff generally intends to make people fold something like a good TP or if you have more balls than sense, an overpair. You seem to be trying to bluff a very small class of hands (draws that turned or rivered pairs) and you're spending a lot of money to do it. It's just not worth it, unless you have a read that you can fold more than the bizarro improved draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the feedback [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I have been burned lots recently by these bizarro draws so am probably letting my results get to me here.

For the record this is the 1st 3rd barrel push I've made at $100NL - it's not something I do often tho I think it IS something I need to do once in a while I just need to pick a better spot to do it in.