meh, i hate this spot...
 

loosish / badish fishy but not terrible limps HJ. Aggressive unknown (no stats but lots of betting and raising) raises from the CO. I call black 44 in the BB, fishy calls.

3 to the flop for 6sb.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, fishy checks, aggro bets, I c-r. Easy so far?
Fishy folds. aggro calls. 2 to the turn for 5BB.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, aggro bets, I call. 2 to the river for 7BB.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, aggro bets, I fold.


Meh. I don't like folding a hand with showdown value here against a semi-unknown aggro. I think c-r'ing is better than c-c'ing, though.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I like a flop fold.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like a flop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're crazy.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I play it the same.

-DeathDonkey

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Do we really like calling the turn and folding the river?

If I call that turn Im seeing a showdown.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I do not see what`s so bad about folding the flop. Fishy probably won`t fold a better hand even for 2 SB and as COs raising range seems to be very wide he may have well made a pair. Co may use any turn card to put us to the test.
Fold. Next hand.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I do not see what`s so bad about folding the flop. Fishy probably won`t fold a better hand even for 2 SB and as COs raising range seems to be very wide he may have well made a pair. Co may use any turn card to put us to the test.
Fold. Next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best option and well said. I still agree with my first post however.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I don't like a line that leads to folding against this guy for one bet. I'm not sure whether to bet-call down from the turn or check-call twice.

Unless you have a note that says "Gives up his bluffs on the river" on him, I'm calling that river against a guy who is betting and raising a lot. I don't expect to win a lot, but over 1 in 8 times.

edit

Okay, why is check-raising superior to check-calling? What worse hand will call the raise? Will he fold a jack for one more bet on the river?

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're crazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

if u never fold the best hand u are playing bad poker

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Sure, but if you frequently fold the best hand you are playing bad poker too.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I would have played the hand exactly the same way, but it sure doesn't feel good. I guess that is what happens when you play a baby pair out of position.

The flop cr is the only play if you think your hand may be best. No way can we let the limper hang in there, and he will a LOT if we call.

By the river, what can you beat?

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]

By the river, what can you beat?


[/ QUOTE ]
KQ KT QT if the guy really is aggro

And of course he has about a zillion other hands that beat us.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I play the flop the same and usually checkfold the turn. I don't mind betting the turn and checkfolding given the next chance, either. That's what I do if I think I may still be ahead.

Edit: In practice I wind up doing the latter more often because often feel I'm ahead. Yes, since he's aggressive I'm often going to get outplayed here, but it's just a bad spot, I don't know what his next action means, and so I don't have much choice.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I think check/calling the turn is the worst option. I would either bet/fold or check/fold. The A is going to scare him as much as it scares you. Few players actually pull the trigger and raise with JT in this spot, and given the way the game plays, it's a questionable semibluff at best, since K5 or 44 will often call you down anyway.

BTW, I don't think a flop fold is that bad. And calling is another viable option. Building a big pot with an underpair OOP is far from ideal, even though sometimes it is the most EV play.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think check/calling the turn is the worst option. I would either bet/fold or check/fold. The A is going to scare him as much as it scares you. Few players actually pull the trigger and raise with JT in this spot, and given the way the game plays, it's a questionable semibluff at best, since K5 or 44 will often call you down anyway.

BTW, I don't think a flop fold is that bad. And calling is another viable option. Building a big pot with an underpair OOP is far from ideal, even though sometimes it is the most EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I just overestimate how often I'm getting bluffraised on this particular turn. It feels like every time I lead into an Ace OOP the aggro player pops me. I 3bet once with an underpair out of curiosity and got an instafold, so obv i'm getting played back at sometimes.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think check/calling the turn is the worst option. I would either bet/fold or check/fold. The A is going to scare him as much as it scares you. Few players actually pull the trigger and raise with JT in this spot, and given the way the game plays, it's a questionable semibluff at best, since K5 or 44 will often call you down anyway.

BTW, I don't think a flop fold is that bad. And calling is another viable option. Building a big pot with an underpair OOP is far from ideal, even though sometimes it is the most EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I just overestimate how often I'm getting bluffraised on this particular turn. It feels like every time I lead into an Ace OOP the aggro player pops me. I 3bet once with an underpair out of curiosity and got an instafold, so obv i'm getting played back at sometimes.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Surf re: bluffing frequencies on turn scare cards.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I think the flop is a c-r or c-f situation. If you check-call and give "fishy" correct odds to call with 62o then you will only have yourself to blame.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe I just overestimate how often I'm getting bluffraised on this particular turn. It feels like every time I lead into an Ace OOP the aggro player pops me. I 3bet once with an underpair out of curiosity and got an instafold, so obv i'm getting played back at sometimes.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and that's why I said you are going to get outplayed. But I think you take it down more than 1 out of every 5, and I don't think that happens if you check-call.

I was going to re-edit and say that part of the issue is which 2 big bets do you think you can believe most, the 2nd bet on the river or the two on the turn. That's part of it. But if they are equally believeable, I would lean towards protecting my hand.

Also, if your read is that you will get bluff-raised too much, that opens up a second path to making money once you bet. I 3-bet underpairs from time to time. It depends how the games are playing lately.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Something I don't understand: If you think that villian bluff-raises scary turn cards too often, why not bet/call the turn with the intention of inducing a turn raise from a hand with 6 outs? Surely putting 2 BB in on the turn with 6 outs and then bluffing the river improved or not has to be a big mistake.

Or do you think that the average laggro villian bluff-raises enough to make bet/folding a losing play but not enough to make your bet/call an exploit against him? If so, how did a guy like this balance his hand range? I'm guessing he plays off of instinct.. Or am I completely missing something here?

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Something I don't understand: If you think that villian bluff-raises scary turn cards too often, why not bet/call the turn with the intention of inducing a turn raise from a hand with 6 outs? Surely putting 2 BB in on the turn with 6 outs and then bluffing the river improved or not has to be a big mistake.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the assumption is that we don't think he will do it too too often. His frequency will be close to unexploitable. In essence he could be doing something like taking his equity when he has the ace, and spreading it over his whole range of hands.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Surf, I think your flop checkraise is fine, but I think calling the flop has a lot of merit when there is a loose fish who will call 2 cold with a lot of hands (he's not folding any pair or straight draw and is probably calling with hands like unpaired Ax with backdoor draws) left to act behind you. Calling in spots like this is underrated. Calling also often prevents you from getting knocked off the best hand if it gets HU with aggro and he decides to 3bet the flop or raise the turn. It also lets him keep bluffing. You can also get away cheaper on bad turns or if the 3rd guy comes alive.

Protection is important, but it totally depends on how often you have the best hand and how many hands there are that fold for 2 but not 1...you also need to weigh this against the advantage of letting aggro keep the lead.

As for the turn, I think checking is the only play.

I think the river is close. I might pay it off because there are still some KQ/QT sort of hands that would fire again. IMO, you definitely need to be calling a 2-T river.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Unfortunately, there are no great answers to such bad situations. Bet / fold, check / call - check / fold and check / call - check / call are all reasonable options. Do whatever leaves you happiest. My only comment would be that in order to check-call twice he would have to bet his busted hands twice about 100% of the time since there are a million ways he could be ahead of you, and since solid players will often not bet with air when you check the turn advertising an intention to showdown.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Betting the turn with the intention of not showing down is not the best line imo. Flop c/r is not representing A and a turnbet is the best way to be bluffed. It is NOT a scarecard for him.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

the flop c/r is pretty standard I thought. As for the turn river combo, I'm not feelin the c/c c/f. There really isn't a fav line that stands out. I think it's either b/f, or c/c c/c

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

As long as you were check-calling a river blank, I like your line. That J was ugly.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

I don't see what all the comotion is about calling him on a blank river. The pot's not that big. I think I would rather bet and get bluffed half the time putting one bet in than check and put two bets in when I'm going to be good just barely often enough to call the last bet. You calling the turn really shrinks his range on a river bet.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

mmcd, I was calling a blank river.

Bryce, most of the aggro guys in this game will fire both streets if they're going to fire at all, in my experience. This particular hand it's just a matter of the fact that there aren't enough hands left that I beat on the river, b/c he's going to make a value-bet with JT or whatever.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

looks fine. about the turn, the only problem i have with bet/folding is I really have no idea if Im folding the best or worst hand when a aggro player raises me here. If he is somewhat aware he should know that your check is defensive and what that means, but again ppl are retards and cant handread for [censored], but the J is kind of a lame river card for you. If he has KQ or some other random on occasion then well, thats the breaks.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Agreed with kiddo.

Fold the flop.

Way too many gutshots/pair hands for fishy that he isn't folding to a c/r. Way too many tough spots for aggro to put us in plus way too many combined outs for the both of them.

It's okay to let some hands go, even short-handed.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Easy flop fold with bad relative position. The odds are that someone has made a better pair and even if they haven't they will draw out on you a very large part of the time. Hero's implied odds are a disaster because of his terrible position and because the underpair will lose bigger pots than it wins.

Just to test my intuition I simulated this with PokerStove.

PFR range: top 16%
Limper range: 11th percentile through 45th percentile (this excludes hands he would probably open-raise)

The PFR has 39% equity, the limper has 37%, and Hero has 24%. Ouch.

My line is betfold turn/checkfold river. When 44 is still the best hand the ace will feel to most opponents like the roof is caving in. Hands like QJ will probably fold. A gutshot might call but assuming you survive the 10-out river he will miss the river bluff more often than not. People figure that you are afraid of the ace but that you still plan to call the river with whatever pair you checkraised the flop with. It might occur to Villain to put you on a busted straight draw but that's not a reason to bluff as he usually wins by showing.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Easy flop fold with bad relative position. The odds are that someone has made a better pair and even if they haven't they will draw out on you a very large part of the time. Hero's implied odds are a disaster because of his terrible position and because the underpair will lose bigger pots than it wins.

Just to test my intuition I simulated this with PokerStove.

PFR range: top 16%
Limper range: 11th percentile through 45th percentile (this excludes hands he would probably open-raise)

The PFR has 39% equity, the limper has 37%, and Hero has 24%. Ouch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Stellar,

Thanks for the analysis. 2 things that I think change it are that 1) I like my relative position since I can face the 3rd player with 2 cold (he's not an all-out fish, just a bit too loose and too passive, I don't think he'll call a flop raise with a gutshot, say) and leave myself HU with the pfr often.

Also, the pfr was quite aggressive and if I had to estimate i'd say he's probably raising somewhere between 25-37% of his hands here, which changes the equity calcs substantially. When we get it HU with the pfr our equity is quite good, according to my pokerstove #s.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Is it really that nitty to just fold the flop?

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really that nitty to just fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe not? I'm still unsure, and my paranoia about being weak-tight is relatively justified in a game this aggressive(non party no pt, but the LAGs really LAG it up)

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) I like my relative position since I can face the 3rd player with 2 cold (he's not an all-out fish, just a bit too loose and too passive, I don't think he'll call a flop raise with a gutshot, say) and leave myself HU with the pfr often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've heard this argument before and I don't agree with it. Hijack has the good relative position because he acts last on the autobet. Once in a while you will succeed in driving out a better hand but not very often. He has to have it and fold it. Even then it's a worthless achievement unless you can beat the PFR, only about a 50% chance.

Against this are all the times that hijack has a better hand, possibly a much better hand, and takes several bets off of you. Or hijack was never a factor and you are paying extra to drive out a player who was always folding. There is a reason some posters were advocating a flop call. It's because the relative merits of calling and raising are fairly close. One of the things I've learned recently is this is not a raise/fold situation unless you want it to be. It can be OK just to call, see what hijack is going to do, and reevaluate after you see the turn card. Raising commits you to blindly putting at least 2 BB in the pot and usually more than that. Calling only costs 0.5 BB and if you can read the table you can often walk away on the turn. For example, based on your reads, I'd say that if you call, hijack overcalls, another overcard turns, and someone bets, then you must be the underdog against each opponent separately and collectively you are in very poor shape versus the two of them.

In summary, calling is an option if you insist on playing out the hand. With 54 instead of 44 it might well be the best play because the extra outs increase your pot equity and make it more worthwhile to see the turn before committing to a course of action.

But with 44 I think this is a fold and not especially close. Your bad position has made your hand worthless.

Let's switch seats with the hijack. Now 44 has some value because you can see what the loose player is going to do before you act. If he folds then you are headsup with a pair and a fair amount of money in the pot. If he raises then obviously you have just saved money. If he calls then you can do what you want. You can fold knowing that BB probably has at least a draw if not a pair. Or you can peel secure in the knowledge that at least you won't be raised and that your good position will carry over to the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the pfr was quite aggressive and if I had to estimate i'd say he's probably raising somewhere between 25-37% of his hands here, which changes the equity calcs substantially. When we get it HU with the pfr our equity is quite good, according to my pokerstove #s.

[/ QUOTE ]
A wider PFR range is unfavorable for you on a 975 flop because it increases Villain's chance to have a split pair. It also gives him more outs on average when you are ahead because of the enhanced straight possibilities.

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Excellent post.

Does all this perhaps mean that this should be a fold pf, or is there enough set value to make up for the call? It seems that my poor relative position has rendered me unable to realize my equity and forces me to fold what is the best hand a not-insignificant portion of the time.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

Every time you fold this pre-flop you make implied odds Jesus cry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Every time you fold this pre-flop you make implied odds Jesus cry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, right. I guess that was an overly drastic response, i haven't flopped many sets lately so I guess it feels like i'm playing it for showdown value alone which is apparently difficult and isnufficient in a 3way pot in many cases.

Surf

Re: meh, i hate this spot...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does all this perhaps mean that this should be a fold pf, or is there enough set value to make up for the call? It seems that my poor relative position has rendered me unable to realize my equity and forces me to fold what is the best hand a not-insignificant portion of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a correct idea in that the BB can call more raises when he has good relative position (first-in raiser followed by callers) instead of having the raiser on his immediate right. [This assumes for discusssion purposes that you put the players on the same hand ranges.]

But a pocket pair is virtually always worth calling one bet from the BB no matter what. The set value is just too good even if you won't have good position for that set.

Another example of this principle occurs when you are on the button considering coldcalling a multiway pot. It's much better to have an openraise with coldcallers instead of limpers followed by a cutoff raise. You don't want the flop going check-check-check-bet-????.

BTW, don't overlook that this flop sucks. There didn't have to be three overcards that make a straight. Sometimes you get something like J53r and then you have much better chances.