200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) CP hand converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">BB ($248.75)</font>
UTG ($156.52)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($0)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($213.75)</font>
SB ($293.73)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $13</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, BB calls $27.

Turn: ($97) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $65</font>, hero ???

villain is very nitty....16/8 or so......

whats a better line on the flop?

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

If the villain is super nitty, I tend to assume he has something when he leads out into the preflop raiser. As played I think you have to fold on the turn, as even if your draw gets there it will be pretty transparent and the board will be scary - I don't think a turn push gives you much FE with this action.

I suppose a flop call is okay, but I think your line gets you a free card on the turn or all in on the flop often enough so I wouldn't second guess yourself too much.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

why a fold on the turn? im getting priced if he has aq/a6....even if he has a set or at and i hit on the river hes gonna payoff a small value bet....only kj has me in real trouble.....its a very small edge on the turn....i guess i should have just shoved it on the turn.....cause obv i have no fe on that turn....

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Even if you exclude hands like AA, KJo and KJs from his range you are behind on the turn, so why push if he doesn't fold?

Board: Ac Qc Td 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.9474 % 28.95% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 2: 71.0526 % 71.05% 00.00% { QQ, TT, AQs, ATs, AQo, ATo }

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

is it spew if i always call this turn?

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you exclude hands like AA, KJo and KJs from his range you are behind on the turn, so why push if he doesn't fold?

Board: Ac Qc Td 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.9474 % 28.95% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 2: 71.0526 % 71.05% 00.00% { QQ, TT, AQs, ATs, AQo, ATo }

[/ QUOTE ]

i wasnt talking about pushing...i know by his turn bet hes not folding....is a call outta the question

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

oops, shove != push ? (I'm Dutch)

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
oops, shove != push ? (I'm Dutch)

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove = push

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
is it spew if i always call this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on villain andif you think you have any implied odds

EDIT: your image also plays a pretty big role on occasion

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

shove=push all in

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is it spew if i always call this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on villain andif you think you have any implied odds

EDIT: your image also plays a pretty big role on occasion

[/ QUOTE ]
I think its a good call vs most players since you have position and almost pot odds vs sets. With that said, had he/she bet full pot I think its spew vs most players.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
is it spew if i always call this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Vs. a nit? Probably. He's led into you twice...I think he's representing massive strength.

I probably just fold here. I'd put him on nothing less than a set, possibly KJ.

- C -

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Do you ever not get, say, a hundred out of him on a club/J river? I don't like folding this.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
Vs. a nit? Probably. He's led into you twice...I think he's representing massive strength.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a question of whether you're beat, it's a question of how much you get on the river if you hit. Some nits get stuck on big hands like sets and pay off good, which would make the turn call ++EV.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

BTW it may be results oriented, but I think just calling the flop is best.

A 16/8 player is only leading into the PFR with monsters or draws trying to b-3b. Since you have the good draw it makes it less likely he's donking a draw, and more likely he's donking a big hand. All the sets are very unlikely here, I bet he has KJ.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Type in the chatbox, "You're a nit, you should have folded KJ preflop."

Actually, I think you do have FE on this turn. Think about this for a second. He is highly unlikely to have KJ because if he's really 16/8, gawd knows he shouldn't be calling that from oop (he's also very likely to b3b the flop).

If he's got AA or QQ, he's very likely to rr preflop. If he's got TT, he's sort of likely to rr preflop. Therefore, I think he's got AQ or AT. That said, unless you have the image of a chip-spewing donkey, I think you can shove this turn profitably. If he's nitty at all, there is no way he calls a turn shove after bet-raise, bet-shove action. (A6 is out of his range because nits don't call flop raises with a naked ace on that board)

And no, I don't like calling the flop because when we hit our draw is now transparent, and a nit can get away from it.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Even if we decide to rule out the straight and the sets (which I don't think we really can like that), and put him on AQ/AT, he's not folding - especially AQ. The fact that he's a nit doesn't make me think we have added FE here against top two, it makes me think that when he already has put half his stack in the middle he's not going anywhere.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

It seems like you're looking at AQ/AT here. If you push the turn, he's going to need to call 100 in a 300 or so pot, so he's pretty much committed himself to the call here.

If you push, based on the way you've played the hand, probably puts you on a big pocket pair, but won't be able to rule out AK, AT or a flush draw so I think he makes the call anyway.

I also think he pays you off for his remaining 100 or so if you make the flush, so I call the turn bet. 65 to you, you stand to win about 260, close to 0 EV, but I like to gambool.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate here to try and make a case for a push. Basically, I think we're strongly representing AAA and QQQ here, based on there, with about 150-200 behind- is a raise/ push now +EV if he's going to have trouble even calling with TTT?

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

I hear what you're saying, but I'd need a pretty strong read that he makes big laydowns often, and I'd want to have a pretty tight image myself and feel he was aware of that. I don't think he would have any trouble calling with TTT - especially since a push is going to offer him like 3:1 on his money to call.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

I agree. Looking back at it, his turn bet REALLY SUCKs.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate here to try and make a case for a push. Basically, I think we're strongly representing AAA and QQQ here, based on there, with about 150-200 behind- is a raise/ push now +EV if he's going to have trouble even calling with TTT?

[/ QUOTE ]

he will never lay down TTT.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

I use aejones's reasoning to put villain on AQ/AT. That being said, I think the turn is a fold. There is no hand that the villain could think that we have that he is currently beating (KK, AT, AK) that wouldnt improve to a winner when one of our real outs comes. And obv if the villain would think that he is beat on the turn if we raise/shove, the nit is prolly folding. So essentially, to make any more money on this hand, the villain has to think that the hero is behind on the turn, but playing with a non-jack, non-king, AND non-two-club hand. I can't think of anything that fits this description.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

against 16/8, pretty easy fold on turn.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

Easy and obvious call.

You need to average $33 on the river to make this call break-even.

Your outs might be obvious, but he's going to be getting almost 3:1 on the river to call your all in.

Shoving is stupid, because he has you beat, and he isn't folding.

I don't like the flop raise, vs a nit. A nit leading into me on a board like this would have me very worried.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you ever not get, say, a hundred out of him on a club/J river? I don't like folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is a nit and your hand looks exactly like what it is. You have no hidden hand here, and if I'm villain I'm check folding any sort of bet on a bad river. Especially folding to an all in which is about what's needed to get the value for your hand.

If your hand was more hidden I'm okay calling. Not to mention that both your draws guaranteed to be good, which the straight draw isn't, it could easily chop.

[ QUOTE ]
You need to average $33 on the river to make this call break-even.

[/ QUOTE ]

My math - which admittedly may be screwed up - says you're counting 15 outs to get to that $33 number. Doesn't much matter though cause I don't think you've got even close to that in effective outs so I may be wrong.

9 clubs, 1 of which might be tainted.
4 Jacks, 3 of which might result in a chop (1 of which might already be in villain's hand).
2 Tens, both of which could easily be no good.
3 Kings which are almost never good.

I'd count it 9 + 3 + 0 + 0 in effective outs. 12 effective outs, MAYBE 13 if you're lucky.

Most importantly I think your flush doesn't get paid off much if anything here. The straight sometimes. Implied odds look sucky to me, despite the fact that he'll be getting 3 to 1 to call on the river. He's a nit. He'll look for a reason to fold.

I'm looking this over more and I don't hate calling here. But I don't think it's an easy call. I think it's exceptionally marginal either way, which in my mind means pick one and go with it.

Raising would be bad.

- C -

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
...I don't like the flop raise, vs a nit. A nit leading into me on a board like this would have me very worried.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would have been a better flop line vs nits?.....what if villain was 35/17??

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
what would have been a better flop line vs nits?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well... you're not folding....

[ QUOTE ]
what if villain was 35/17??

[/ QUOTE ]
Then a raise would be standard, and you should be more inclined to push the turn, but I probaly still wouldn't do it, here.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

psu,

i think i would get paid off, just based off my normal semi lagginess image......i do fire a lot of bets post flop and im pretty sure this guy wont let go of his hand.....

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
My math - which admittedly may be screwed up - says you're counting 15 outs to get to that $33 number..

[/ QUOTE ]

My $33 number came from a quick guess assuming we were ~3:1 to hit and win, and we're never paying off if we don't make a straight or better. Whether or not we pay off on the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I suppose can be debated.

Board: Ac Qc Td 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6585 % 25.00% 01.66% { KcTc }
Hand 2: 73.3415 % 71.68% 01.66% { AA, QQ, TT, AQs+, KJs, AQo+, KJo }

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

big jim,

I know im not folding the flop....but is my only option callin?.....are u not liking my raise or the SIZE of my riase?

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
big jim,

I know im not folding the flop....but is my only option callin?.....are u not liking my raise or the SIZE of my riase?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like a raise on the flop, vs a nit, who leads into you.

Sure, you might buy yourself a free card, and you build the pot for when you hit, but your fold equity is very low, and I would prefer just getting the money in slow, until you hit.

Granted, it's gonna be hard to play for stacks, if the pot is building slower, and he's gonna be scared when any of your outs come in.

Hmm, maybe a smaller raise would be better. Nits tend not to 3-bet the flop very often, and it has the same effect as the bigger raise, without risking as much.

Meh, I'm torn on the flop raise, it's probably about the same, either way, with a draw like this.

Re: 200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
psu,

i think i would get paid off, just based off my normal semi lagginess image......i do fire a lot of bets post flop and im pretty sure this guy wont let go of his hand.....

[/ QUOTE ]

In such a case, calling would be better. I didn't know that was your impression, and my thoughts are most nits would be able to fold that hand if you hit.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a raise on the flop, vs a nit, who leads into you.

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FWIW and if I haven't said this already, I agree with this point...I didn't like the flop raise all that much.

- C -