The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

Mike Matusow made a comment to Card Player about the hand that crippled Greg yesterday- I was wondering if it was as out-of-line a play as Mike made it out to be.

"some IDIOT loses his mind and tries his hardest to go broke and..I think that bothers me more than anything" AND "How bout throwin your hand away when you flop no pair and no draw, ever heard of doin that?"

I'm assuming Mike is referring to this hand:
" Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, Raymer raises, and Kanter calls. The flop comes 6c-5d-3h, and there's a bet and a call. The turn card is the 7h, Kanter bets $600,000, and the two players are quickly all in. Raymer shows pocket kings (Kd-Kh), and Kanter has Qh-Jh. Kanter has a flush draw, and needs to catch a heart to win the pot. The river card is the 2h, and Kanter makes his flush to double up through Greg Raymer."

Does anyone have more details on the preflop and flop betting, along with the turn back-and-forth? Because it's possible Greg was trying to steal on the flop. Could Kanter realistically represent the straight(s) here?
Any chance Fossilman is making a move on the turn, or reads Kanter as doing so (rather than a semi-bluff)?

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

This just shows how hard it is to get to the last 27 of 5,800 without taking a major suckout. Think of all the times you got sucked out on playing a 5+.50 torney with 400 people.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

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Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

No, Kanter, semibluffed big on the turn with a flush draw + 2 overs and sucked out after getting reraised by Raymer.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
The flop comes 6c-5d-3h, and there's a bet and a call. The turn card is the 7h, Kanter bets $600,000, and the two players are quickly all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh - this is why I don't think I'll ever understand the pros' plays. If I went all-in with KK and one opponent on a board like this in a $5 SNG, I would invariably be shown a 4, and I wouldn't think to blame bad luck as much as my own stupidity for pushing all-in with one flippin' pair when there was a one-card straight on board.

I just don't get it.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

According to Greg in his exit interview, Kanter called a $150K raise, then called a half-pot bet on the flop. On the turn, Greg bet again, Kanter raised, and Greg set him all-in. Kanter had no choice but to call on the turn, because he WAS pot-committed, but the call on the flop was a little weak.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

Well Greg discussed the hand on cardplayer.

Blinds 20-40 with an ante of 5k, Greg made it 100k before the flop which is his standard raise.

On that flop Greg bets 150k and his opponent with 2 overs and a backdoor flush calls.

On the turn, Greg bets 300k, the opponent makes it 800k and Greg pushes and his opponent calls. His opponent started with 1.8 million so he put 1.5 million or so as a 4:1 underdog.

Ken

Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

....with a backdoor flush......then later the Party Poker Donkey Takes Out Phil Ivey. This Kantor guy has seven gold horseshoes up his @ss.

Regardless, I'm VERY impressed with Raymer to do so well. He is the real deal. I am disappointed that it took some fool chasing a runner-runner to take him out. No justice in poker. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

Thing is, hands like this happen all the time, big tourney or not. I've been backdoor drawed, runner runnered, perfect, perfected, etc. so many times when I didn't win a tourney. But when I win tourneys, I "avoid" these beats. Getting sucked out on big time for a lot of chips is a fact of life. The reason Greg won last year is he avoided beats like this, not because he's that much better than any of us, but because he was lucky to avoid them. This year he was unlucky to avoid it. Honestly 4 to 1 underdog isn't that bad. Not great either.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

You people act like Raymer is the only person in the world that get's runner runnered. I feel bad for him losing to this, but hands like this happen every minute of the day. They happen at the WSOP, they happen at the 25/50 NL tables online they happen at the .01/.02, they happen. If Greg lost to perfect, perfect, I would feel a lot worse. Runner, Runner is a pretty common loss to a flush.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

And now Kanter has the chip lead at the final table. If he wins this he will wish his name was Moneymaker.... 2+2ers will rip him a new ***hole. Bigtime.

Brad

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am disappointed that it took some fool chasing a runner-runner to take him out.

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Did you read or hear the history of the hand. He was not chasing a runner runner.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

the call on the flop was a little weird, maybe he was setting up a move on the turn no matter what the card was, as it turned out, it gave him a flush draw that he wasnt able to get away from.

As i recall raymer virtually busted matusow last year when he went all in on the flop with just a flush draw. granted he was ahead preflop and was actually statistically ahead on the flop, but he still needed to draw to a hand otherwise he would have been eliminated and maybe matusow would be going for his second title in a row.

i think its poker and raymer understands that better than anyone which is why you wouldnt hear him complain. matusow complains because he complains about everything.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

The guy put in 4/5th of his chips after the turn on this hand. I hate when people runner me, but he couldn't fold his hand. Raymer could have folded the turn I guess, I wouldn't have. But to win tournies, you have to play well and avoid these beats. As I said earlier, last year he did, this year he couldn't.

To the \"donkey\" critics, turn the hand around
 

An aggressive player with a shorter stack makes a 100k raise into a 140K pot. You have QJs and position and around 2 million in chips. Do you call?

Flop come small, one heart and you have two overs. Aggressive player in front bets 150K into a 340K pot. He could have a big pair, a small pair, two overs, two high cards, could be dominating you, you could be dominating him.... and you're getting getting over 3:1.

What do you do?

Re: To the \"donkey\" critics, turn the hand around
 

shorter? he has you covered..........raymer had chips left after the hand. i guess you mean, not chip leader, but if someone has you stacked, going against them with QJh, isn't that great.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

He probably thought his two overcards were outs. But the reality was he needed a runner-runner to win after the flop. At the very best he had 6 outs (7:1 longshot to hit the turn) on the flop and 15 outs on the turn (3:1 longshot). His flop call was TERRIBLE because his outs could have EASILY been counterfeited... A better play would have been to fold or raise the flop.

On the turn he THOUGHT he had 15 outs out of 44 cards. His semi-bluff raise on the turn was an act of desperation. Raymer played the hand perfectly while Kantor misplayed the Pre-FLOP, FLOP, and TURN. On the otherside of the coin, Raymer played every street perfectly.

Kantor MAY be a great poker player capable of playing great poker .....BUT.... on that hand he played like an UBER-DONKEY. Kantor is not worthy of smelling Raymer's jockstrap...

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

If you watch the video interviews with Kanter and Raymer, you'll get a better understanding of how the hand played out.

Kanter said he called on the flop with the idea that he was going to take a stab at the pot on the turn. When the turn hit (4-card straight on the board), it even stregthened his idea that it was a good time to make a move on the pot. He didn't think that Raymer was as strong as KK. He got pot-committed and couldn't fold after making his turn raise.

Raymer says that he knew something was up when Kanter raised him on the turn so quickly. So Raymer pushed in with the best hand. It just happened that Kanter made his flush on the river.

In my opinion, Raymer played this hand well. He made the right reads, the right plays, and was just a victim of statistics falling for the underdog this time. Kanter (according to his read) only played it wrong because of his read. He knew that Raymer couldn't have had a 4 in his hand, but he didn't realize that he was going to get called and that even if he did get called, that his Q and J outs were no good. He compounded his mistake and was forced to call...and just got lucky. It's poker.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

Felix-It might be donkey, but plays like this happen all the f'in time. You act like Raymer is the only victim in the world to losing from behind. How many f'in times have all of us lost with AA headsup? It's only a 4 to 1 favorite versus a random hand. Yes it sucks to go down like this and yes I would feel like sh!t if this happened to me. Thing is, Raymer got bad beat for most of his chips, boo hoo. You act like noone ever makes mistakes at poker. Raymer did play it well, he got sucked out on, sucking out is part of poker, Raymer's used to it, I'm used it, maybe your not used to it. Play a tournament online, see how many times you get sucked out on in 200 hands. Sucking out = Poker.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]

Sigh - this is why I don't think I'll ever understand the pros' plays. If I went all-in with KK and one opponent on a board like this in a $5 SNG, I would invariably be shown a 4, and I wouldn't think to blame bad luck as much as my own stupidity for pushing all-in with one flippin' pair when there was a one-card straight on board.


[/ QUOTE ]

There wasn't a 1-card straight on board. Cardplayer got the board wrong (again).

Re: To the \"donkey\" critics, turn the hand around
 

I know, I just try to put myself in the situation and think how I might play it out and why.

Easy to criticize when we know what the hands are, but if reading Greg was THAT easy he'd never have made it as far in 2004 or this year.

Kanter trapped himself into the hand, but I'm not sure it was that unreasonable a read. We'd really have to have seen Greg's play during the hands prior to that.

Greg had the same problem on a hand a few days before and runner-runner'd so I guess this was the justice of the poker gods..

If Greg's read wasn't that Kanter's turn raise was weak, would he have called the turn (probably) and folded on the river flush?

The turn board cards were reported incorrectly?
 

The turn wasn't the 4-card heart/straight possibility?

What WAS the correct board?

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

Felix-It might be donkey, but plays like this happen all the f'in time. You act like Raymer is the only victim in the world to losing from behind. How many f'in times have all of us lost with AA headsup? It's only a 4 to 1 favorite versus a random hand. Yes it sucks to go down like this and yes I would feel like sh!t if this happened to me. Thing is, Raymer got bad beat for most of his chips, boo hoo. You act like noone ever makes mistakes at poker. Raymer did play it well, he got sucked out on, sucking out is part of poker, Raymer's used to it, I'm used it, maybe your not used to it. Play a tournament online, see how many times you get sucked out on in 200 hands. Sucking out = Poker.
************************************************** ******
In the last 2.5 years I have played over a MILLION hands of on-line poker. I have seen it all. Please save your lectures for someone else. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

I would feel alot worse for Raymer if on that hand, Raymer went allin on the flop and then got sucked out on by Runner Runner. He didn't. When all the money was put in, Kantor had 9 outs. Not great, not something I would do and probally pretty donkish. I hope he doesn't win, but if he does, it wouldn't be that much of a suprise. You have to get lucky to win tournaments. This is a hand he got lucky on. You guys forget all the hands Raymer sucked out on last year to win the tourney, yes it wasn't many, but it was more than 1. But now Raymer get's sucked out on, when he was a 4 to 1 favorite, boo hoo. Yeah Raymer didn't suck out on 1010 vs AA, or A10 vs AK, or on Matusow. But now that Raymer finally gets sucked out on big time for once in 2 tournies (amazing), we have to feel sorry for him. I'm not that sorry for the guy. He deserves to be patted on the back, he played awesome the last 2 MEs, and finally got a bad beat he couldn't come back to. Sorry guys, but we don't need a kleenex for this one.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

So why do you make a post like this, and then say I've seen everything. Obviously your used to it, I'm used to it, so is Raymer.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

And if there were no luck involved Phil would always win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: The turn board cards were reported incorrectly?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The turn wasn't the 4-card heart/straight possibility?

What WAS the correct board?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was pretty ragged. I think it was like 963 with a 4 on the turn or something. At least that's what Raymer said in his cardplayer interview.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

[ QUOTE ]
And if there were no luck involved Phil would always win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Definitely [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I could play every hand I've ever played perfectly, and still not win every tourney. If played B makes a mistake but sucks out on me, even if I play perfectly, I can still lose. Raymer played the hand perfectly and still lost, not much you can do there. Luck happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: To the \"donkey\" critics, turn the hand around
 

1. PRE-FLOP. Don't call a raise against a bigger stack with a marginal hand. Either Re-Raise or Fold.
2. FLOP. Fold to the bet or reraise representing a small pair.
3. Turn. Call or fold realizing you f***-up the pre-flop and flop. Keep the pot small and hope you hit. When Raymer fired a 2nd barrel at you that should have set off an alarm in your head.
4. River. If Raymer fires a 3rd barrel. EASY Fold if u missed your hand. If he checks then you can make a play for the pot.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
And now Kanter has the chip lead at the final table. If he wins this he will wish his name was Moneymaker.... 2+2ers will rip him a new ***hole. Bigtime.

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Wow, I can imagine him saying something like, "You know, $7.5 million is nice, but really all I want is for 2+2ers to stop ripping me a new ***hole. It really hurts my feelings! :-( "

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

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I would feel alot worse for Raymer if on that hand, Raymer went allin on the flop and then got sucked out on by Runner Runner. He didn't. When all the money was put in, Kantor had 9 outs.

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He had 8 outs. The king of hearts was in Raymer's hand.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

Sorry 8 outs. It's pretty irrelevant. When Raymer pushed he had 300k more. Guy had to call, 8 outs, 9 outs, 20 outs, etc. he was in after the semi-bluff. I hate the play, I wanted to see Raymer vs Matusow 2, but it didn't happen.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
He had 8 outs. The king of hearts was in Raymer's hand.

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He had 11 outs if the board really did have 4 to a straight on it. 3 outs to tie.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
He had 8 outs. The king of hearts was in Raymer's hand

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I'm not critizing you or anyone personally but the flaw when alot of Raymers (or other 2+2 favorites for that matter) hands are dissected its as if they were played face up.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

Thing out Raymer is, in order to win he's done the following things the last 2 years:

He's played extremely aggressive, he isn't LAGGISH but he isn't TAG either. If he played super TAG, he probally wouldn't have won either of the last 2 years. Because of this he gets a lot of action and into a lot of big pots which is essential to win a tourney like this. Now on this hand Kantor probally puts Raymer on 1 of 2 hands in order for him to play like this. A medium pocker pair, or 2 high cards. On the flop if the betting is right in others posts, Raymer underbets the flop. Now, with Raymer's reputation, he get's this call. Now on the turn, Kantor, sees he has 2 overs which are possible outs and a flush draw and he tried to buy the pot. He puts up too much of his stack on the semi-bluff and gets f'in pot committed, and has to call. Kantor makes many bad plays, he get's lucky.

But you must remember Raymer wants this action. He wants action 4 to 1 favorite, if he wins this hand, he's a pretty big stack. He get's his money in, and the card gods say, not this time. Raymer played it perfectly, Kantor won the hand. I don't think Raymer would have played the hand differently. He could have bet the flop harder, which is probally his one mistake, but he did bet the flop lightly against runner runner, which isn't a bad thing, but not a good thing in hindsight. Raymer just didn't get lucky yesterday for most of his chips, but I doubt he would have played the hand much differently other than betting the flop harder against the "donkey," who is now chip leader.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

Is Kantor your lover or something? If I said that grass is green and the sky is blue you would probably find a way to argue with me...

I made a post saying I was impressed with Raymer's play and that it was a shame that he took a runner-runner bad beat from an inferior player to knock him out. I do not know Raymer but I know good poker when I see it and I know bad poker when I see it. Now please go argue with someone else. You are very tiresome.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not critizing you or anyone personally but the flaw when alot of Raymers (or other 2+2 favorites for that matter) hands are dissected its as if they were played face up.

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No, it's cool if you criticize me. I think a forum like this is good for discussion. I come here to try to improve my game.

With that being said, I know I'm not a great tournament player, but I may have done the same thing as Kanter did here. He was playing a marginal hand preflop (less than marginal due to the raise, but he was taking a shot). He sees a flop that is probably a good flop for him to bluff at if the turn card is scary and if he puts Raymer on two big cards...(though he actually had KK, it's not unreasonable to put him on AK). If the turn isn't an A or a K, then I might semi-bluff raise or bet out on the turn (i prefer betting out) and if he calls, hope that I hit my Q, J, or anything else that might make a win for me. The heart on the turn made the semi-bluff that much easier to do. I may have done the exact same thing, except I would be held back by the fact that if I am wrong, I would be virtually knocked out of the tournament (by being short-stacked) if not felted at the end of the hand.

I prefer to fold the flop, but then again, if you never make any other plays or moves, or you let AK take it down unimproved against you all the time by playing too weak, you will lose anyway.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

If Raymer had not had KK, you guys would call this a great play. Every time you see a big bluff and it succeeds you guys call it "great" yet when it doesn't it's "donkish". When Raymer won the WSOP last year, you don't think he made big plays and got lucky because his opponent didn't have the cards? Luck isn't just about catching the winning card, it's also about being in the right situations at the right time.

Re: Donkey Play KOs Raymer.......
 

Dude I don't even know who Kantor is. All I'm saying is Raymer wanted the action and got unlucky for once for a lot of chips. I wanted to see Raymer do well. He got unlucky for once and lost to runner runner. Sh!T happens, obviously you can't deal with that. Is Raymer your butt buddy? I've said repeatedly Raymer played it well and got UNLUCKY. If you played 1 million hands in the last 2 years, I'm pretty sure you've played hands perfectly and still lost. That's what happened to Raymer.

Re: The big Fossilman hand of yesterday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Luck isn't just about catching the winning card, it's also about being in the right situations at the right time.

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Precisely. As well as Raymer played, there were numerous occassions throughout the tournament where a shorter-stack in LP moved in with a decent/good hand only to find Raymer in the blinds holding a monster.