2/4 River Decision

bennyk · #1 01-04-2006, 11:51 PM

Strange river action. Villain is playing an average amount of hands and has been passive postflop. I have been in lots of hands recently and had to fold a couple rivers.

Thanks,
bk

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (9.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero ???

hero · #2 01-05-2006, 12:03 AM

Well we're not folding so its call/raise. figure that he'd pop you on the turn or c/r the river if he has trip 7's. JT is my guess which we're ahead of. since you mentioned recently folding rivs maybe he's taking a shot but i'd say raise. 89 is the only draw that made it and i see that villian has odds to peel the flop with his gutshot but i dont think he'd make the unprofitable turn call with it.
We should raise and calldown a 3-bet. We're only behind TT/JJ/7x/55/89 which isnt enough to make me passive here.

bennyk · #3 01-05-2006, 12:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well we're not folding so its call/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need to be better about narrowing villain's range in situations like this.

C-Dog · #4 01-05-2006, 02:13 AM

I would just call, but I have no sack, and I take too many beats, with my luck the [censored] would table TT and scoop it up with his set.

C-Dog

cassady · #5 01-05-2006, 02:16 AM

I think it's a raise/fold here unless villian is a total maniac then it's raise/call.

edit: edited to remove dumb question......

bennyk · #6 01-05-2006, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a raise/fold here unless villian is a total maniac then it's raise/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this. QQ is good enough that we must must must see a showdown. I would be very surprised if others are advocating R/F here.

FWIW my OP was basically to ask if people are raising here. Folding never entered my mind.

bk

bigalt · #7 01-05-2006, 03:12 AM

I can't conceive of a 3-bet that you're beating here, but perhaps I just don't have the imagination to keep up with some of these guys.

Trips aren't out of the question. I've seen a lot of players check/call, check/call, then lose their resolve and bet the river with big hands. Or he may have just been trying to keep the 3rd man in on the turn.

I think the most likely holdings, though, are a T or a straight. Being a puss and not having any clue how to assign probabilities to those hands I like a call.

In Paradise · #8 01-05-2006, 03:37 AM

It seems to me the only hand that he could have that you beat is J 10. Everything else has you crushed. But my read would be that there is a good chance he has J 10 (though I doubt you would post this hand if that is what he had).

I would just call.

bennyk · #9 01-05-2006, 04:07 AM

Villain tabled KJo and MHIG.

I called the river bet, even though it seemed weak, because I couldn't figure out what he could possibly be betting here. Like I mentioned above, getting to a showdown seemed like the best option.

bk

Nick Royale · #10 01-05-2006, 11:14 AM

Just call and hope he's not holding 98/7x, but something like JT.