can i fold here?

newhizzle · #1 02-12-2006, 04:18 AM

BB is a complete, total, insane maniac

UTG+1 is a solid 16/12/2 type

Party Poker 100.00/200.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, BB caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (18.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB.

can i fold turn or river?

RogerM · #2 02-12-2006, 04:40 AM

I think you can safely fold the turn... I think the only hand you can beat on the turn is AKd.. On the river I dont think you can be good more then 5% of the time, but the pot is big enough where you have to make a crying call. Not sure if that makes sense..

Westley878 · #3 02-12-2006, 05:11 AM

PREFLOP: Standard

FLOP: When the BB bets and the solid player calls, I too would raise here, since you likely have the best hand, and I would prefer to get more money in the pot right away in this situation. Once you raise and the maniac 3 bets, and the UTG+1 calls, something bad has just happened. Judging from the UTG+1's stats, he looks like a tight solid player, and what just happened here is that a tight soild player just cold called the BB's 3 bet, WHEN HE WAS NOT CLOSING THE ACTION. At this point, siren's should be going off in your head, becuz out of all the action that has just transpired, between you, the maniac, and the solid player, no action has shown more strength then the solid players flop cold call not closing the action on this drawless board. Given this reality, I would not cap the flop for value, I would just call.

Turn: Given that you capped the flop, once you bet the turn, and the maniac calls, and the solid player checkraises with 2 people already committed for one BB, It's all over. Given the way the solid player played the flop combined with how he has now played the turn, the solid player will always have a hand that either ties AA or beats AA, meaning you are surely drawing to 2 outs here. Now the question becomes, do you have the pot odds/implied odds to outdraw the solid player. If you assume the maniac will call behind you, you are getting 17-1 pot odds, if we assume that you will make 3BB on the river if you hit your hand(just an estimate) Your implied odds here are 20-1. Since you are more than a 20-1 underdog to hit a set on the river, you should fold the turn. Now if you are unsure at all about your read on the solid player, then you should probably call down given the huge pot odds you are getting. But IMO, when a solid player cold calls that flop 3bet not closing the action on a drawless board, and then checkraises the turn for value with 2 people committed he will have 99 or AA here 100% of the time, most likely 99.

RIVER: Given that you called the turn, I would call the river getting these huge pot odds, hoping that my read on the solid player's actions is somehow wrong.

Chris Daddy Cool · #4 02-12-2006, 07:07 AM

if utg+1 is indeed the solid utg+1 type, u're almost always dead here when he checkraises you on the turn. his most likely hand is 99. you and the bb liked your hands so much he did not even need to put in a raise on the flop.

Keepitsimple · #5 02-12-2006, 07:11 AM

If he does this with 1/6 TT you have odds to call it down. Otherwise you dont.

bambi · #6 02-12-2006, 07:25 AM

No way he has TT here, he has AA, or 99 simple, i think you can fold on the turn pretty easy.

veganmav · #7 02-12-2006, 10:43 AM

personaly, if I am playing my A game, I fold to the turn checkraise...

newhizzle he had 99 right?

DcifrThs · #8 02-12-2006, 11:28 AM

im out in my head save a jack on the turn (i dont cap the flop)after the 5th flop action (when considering the 2nd flop action). if UTG+1 wanted you out, he'd raise the flop (2nd flop action), and if he didn't have a hand strong enough to beat your apparantly strong hand (you didn't just raise the bb, you raised the bb AND utg+1) he wouldn't cold call BB's 3bet of your raise (5th flop action).

id call the flop there and look to see what happens on the turn. but for all intents and purposus im totally done with this hand save a jack or passive turn action by UTG+1.

also note that you can raise the turn if (when) bb bets and utg+1 calls. and if utg+1 raises you've saved 1/2 a small bet.

as it stands, the only way id call down here is if id actually seen utg+1 pull the c'r to get the tighty out move before (and it entailed calling all flop bets to do it). since that almost certainly isn't the case, im gone on the turn.

Barron

newhizzle · #9 02-12-2006, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
newhizzle he had 99 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and i really considered folding to the turn raise and think i should have, after i called, i was just like ok, whatever, ill pay off the river too

and BB had K6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] if that tells you anything about his crazy ass

ggbman · #10 02-12-2006, 05:08 PM

I don't like the flop cap, and the turn should be an easy fold against any sane player. Realistically, the guy has raised every chance he could and then c/r the the turn. He NEVER hsa a worse hand. Also, one of the reasons i dont like the flop cap is because i dont think you are good very often and over-representing your hand will make it easier for better hands to extract value.