$25nl: Nut FD + 2overcards facing min raise on turn

netstorm · #1 09-25-2006, 07:35 AM

Whats my play here ? Villain is 54.9/23.5/2.3 over a small sample size. No noticable reads here, except that he tilts badly after he loses a big pot. He's been playing ok untill this hand.

I made my standard c-bet, knowing I had a lot of outs. Whats my play on the turn? Call and see the river? Or get it in there? Do you think he;s hit his trips here? Because I havent seen him made a raise on a paired board yet.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($36.09)
MP ($46.50)
Hero ($31)
Button ($39.93)
SB ($16.64)
BB ($44.19)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, Button calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $7 Hero ??

munkey · #2 09-25-2006, 08:02 AM

I'd probably check the turn - try and get to showdown and hit an Ace,jack or better a spade on 1 card to come.

The board is paired so even if you hit your flush you may lose.

Villan hand range ~ oveprair incl smal oveprairs, 4x, 2pair,set str8/str8 draw spade fdraw.

As played you're beating nothing with 9 outs to a potential winning hand lets say 9 for the flush + 3 for the overs max.

So we have a maximum 24% chance to win on the river(roughly)
using the 2/4 rule for outs.

we've got to call 3.5/12.35 ~ 28%, and our implied odds aren't that good though as how much are you going to risk on this paired board.

It's close between a call(if your outs are clean) and fold -go with your read, you say you haven't seen him raise a paired board- what does he minraise the turn with?

netstorm · #3 09-25-2006, 08:08 AM

To get back on the implied odds. I have seen this villain make plays were he got all his money in twice with marginal holdings. He also bluffed once with Ace high. Having this in mind, would calling him and hoping to catch improvement on the river be good? And whats my play if I do hit my flush on the river?

matrix · #4 09-25-2006, 08:20 AM

your standard CBet is too small.

bet close to the pot on drawy flops, and 1/2-2/3 on dry flops.

if villain will pay up if you hit the flush call and try to hit one of your 8 outs (7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is worthless)

we got to call $3.5 and we are 5.75:1 to improve so if we hit we need to drag a ~$20 pot just to break even.

pot is ~$19 after the turn call so we only need to make a small value bet if the flush hits to make money.

If we improve I'd make another $3.5 bet on the river and call any raise.

Absolution · #5 09-25-2006, 08:21 AM

I think this is a small to medium pp most of the time. It looks like you just have the odds on the turn to call if that is the case.

avfletch · #6 09-25-2006, 08:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a small to medium pp most of the time. It looks like you just have the odds on the turn to call if that is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Half the small to medium pps are already a full boat here.

netstorm · #7 09-25-2006, 08:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
your standard CBet is too small.

bet close to the pot on drawy flops, and 1/2-2/3 on dry flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im sorry, normally my Cbets are bigger (3/4 - PSB on drawy boards, little bit lower on ragged flops) but on this board I wanted to build a pot a little bit. So my 'standard' line looks a little different.

So I took the turn bet, and hit my flush. bet $5, get minraised again. Whats my play now?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($36.09)
MP ($46.50)
Hero ($31)
Button ($39.93)
SB ($16.64)
BB ($44.19)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, Button calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $7, Hero calls $3.50.

River: ($19.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button raises to $10 Hero ??

Do I push here, hoping he pays me off with 2pair / trips?

SABR42 · #8 09-25-2006, 08:33 AM

Why did you bet $5 on the river? Bet around $15 or something. You want value for your hand, given that villain likes his hand and will probably not fold an overpair.

As played, I'd just call the raise. I pretty much never 3-bet the river on a paired board without a FH.

mudbuddha · #9 09-25-2006, 08:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Half the small to medium pps are already a full boat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

o rly

netstorm · #10 09-25-2006, 08:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet $5 on the river? Bet around $15 or something. You want value for your hand, given that villain likes his hand and will probably not fold an overpair.

As played, I'd just call the raise. I pretty much never 3-bet the river on a paired board without a FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I wont fool myself here, but I was looking to get my money into the pot here. This is both because A) With a $15 value bet im pot commited to a raise anyway. and B) (which is a leak of mine) I didnt think he had a full house. I honestly put him on A4, or something like that. After his minraise I pushed, and he called. He showed KK for two pair, and MHIG.

Was my play on the river that bad?