NL50 - good spot for an overbet?

[gumpzilla]

My reasoning was that no one-card royal draw is folding, nor are most two pair/set holdings, and I don't really stand a chance of getting paid off by much worse playing this more sensibly anyway. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($23.95)
BB ($50)
UTG ($44.30)
MP ($12.95)
Hero ($79.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, SB calls $2.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($8) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $77.35 (All-In)</font>, SB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $85.35

[ASPoker8]

Pot sized bet seems better. You were the aggressor preflop, and that flop is high cards. This means that they are thinking that its a pretty good flop for you..

The oversized bet only seems like a good play against KQ.

[EMc]

ummm...You are mangagin to get no value on your hand and only a flush will call. This is a pretty bad spot for an overbet. You stand a chance of getting more value by betting pot/pot on the flop/turn.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm...You are mangagin to get no value on your hand and only a flush will call. This is a pretty bad spot for an overbet. You stand a chance of getting more value by betting pot/pot on the flop/turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is folding here ever? Or a set? What hands are going to call a pot sized bet on this particular board that don't call a push?

[ASPoker8]

I think a set has re-raised you preflop. Maybe not 10-10.

I don't like the overbet, it's basically gambling. You get called drawing dead by a flush. Jd is in decent shape to win/split. Ad beats you 40% of the time...

Pot-sized bet is good. If a K, Q, or d comes off, you can get away from it. If not, you are milking

[Shaddux]

AK and 2-pairs.

I'm going to have to agree with EMcWilliams here.

[Dan Bitel]

wow...this sucks...just make a PSB

[ImsaKidd]

I think you get more value from one card flush draws by betting pot a bunch, and shutting down if/when a 4th diamond hits.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
wow...this sucks...just make a PSB

[/ QUOTE ]

With what types of holdings would you call or raise a pot sized bet here, especially considering that you're OOP and there are a bazillion scare cards? With what types of holdings are you calling a push? And is the average NL50 player really going to be laying down two pair to this push very often, or bluff raising me with complete air if I make a pot sized bet? My thinking had been that both would be very uncommon in this spot, but I don't have a huge sample size.

[Shaddux]

They will lay down AK, Ad, AQ, QT, and maybe KT

Villain calls push with sets, flushes, Jd, and probably KQ.