Offical Movie Opening Weekend Thread for July 28th-30th

[brendanb438]

Lines from Pinny....


John Tucker Must Die (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
J.T. Must Die
09:00 AM 525 Over 11.5 million -172
526 Under 11.5 million +156

Miami Vice (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
Miami Vice
09:00 AM 507 Over 28.5 million -129
508 Under 28.5 million +113

The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
The Ant Bully
09:00 AM 517 Over 16.5 million +100
518 Under 16.5 million -116

Projected Theatre Counts

Jul. 28 Theaters
The Ant Bully 2,800+
John Tucker Must Die 2,500+
Miami Vice 3,000


Discuss.

My early thought is Ant Bully is gonna bomb, I thought John Tucker would do really good, but Internet Buzz is down a bunch, and Miami Vice's running time is cutting back on # of showings it is getting per theatre.

Could this be another week were all 3 movies go under Pinny's Early lines?

Brendan

[Thremp]

POTC2 was a big factor in that along with 4 movie opening. I don't like the previews personally. I wanna see how the odds go and I might lay all 3 under.

I mean Clerks 2 had a decent amount of buzz and theaters added but still no go. Hrm... I feel so confused now.

[SumZero]

I'd say under on AB and JTMD and over on MV.

[DropGems]

Miami Vice will def be number #1 and will be Michael Manns biggest opening film he's ever had. I think I'm gonna take the over but still researching. So far reviews are positive, good publicity, oscar winning actor, huge 80's fanbase, gnarly action movie, etc... Plus Michael Mann rocks.

[Thremp]

We're coming off some of the biggest movie weeks ever which I don't know if it has a receding effect where the occasional goer does not goto the theater very often.

[hogua]

JTMD seems like an easy over here. Fox is spending a lot on marketing this title. Hell, I'm seeing commercials for it every 15 mintues no matter what show I'm watching.

Plus it is a total teen/post teen chick flick. The star is the "dreamy" guy from Desperate Housewives and it is about chicks getting even with a cheating man.

The demo that wants to see this isn't going to want to see anything else that comes out this weekend or that came out last weekend.

This is just my initial gut feel, as I haven't done research yet, so take all I said with a grain of salt.

[DropGems]

If "Little Man" can do 22 million with another comedy (You, Me and Dupree) directly competing against it and Pirates 2 in it's 2nd weekend, then Miami Vice should be able to do 30 million with no direct competition and Pirates in it's 4th week. Only thing that worries me about Miami Vice is the R rating and the # of screens it's playing on. But still, there are lots of positives for Miami Vice.

[Thremp]

R rating. Yuck. I might not touch it at all.

Training Day 8300
Sin City 9000
Swordfish 6800

It is a longer film... But it has the TV/sequel feel doing for it. On the same note I don't see any of the things that made Miami Vice so cool in the 80s and so cool now to pretend to be retro as what seems to be the feel of this movie.

[DropGems]

Michael Manns last flick Collateral was R and it had a 24 mil opening weekend. It had Tom Cruise but Vice has the 5 year running popular tv series fans along with farrel, fox, and michael mann fans, plus action movie fans that haven't had their fix yet this summer (except for MI:3 but that was 3 months ago).

Also, the film is a modernized Miami Vice. No 80s, no pink shirts and Ferrari Testarossas (they do have a Ferrari f430 in it though). Michael Mann makes dark, serious films so it won't feel like the tv series which was cool but totally outdated and would probably feel cheesy on the big screen just posing an episode of miami vice with totally different leads trying to be the same characters from the 80s. Diehard Vice fans might be turned away by this but I think just the name "Miami Vice" will draw tons of people in from ages 18 to 50. I think people want to see an R rated movie too since the last 20 movies or so have been PG and PG-13 (except for Clerks 2).

[hogua]

Here's what I did

Wager Type: Proposition/Future


Selection 1 : Movies John Tucker Must Die (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for J.T. Must Die 529) Over 12.5 million -172 Risking 150.00 to Win 87.21 USD ---

Selection 2 : Movies Miami Vice (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for Miami Vice 506) Under 28 million -121 Risking 200.00 to Win 165.29 USD ---

Selection 3 : Movies The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for The Ant Bully 515) Over 16 million +102 Risking 200.00 to Win 204.00 USD