Official Superman Opening Weekend Thread

[brendanb438]

Starting this one tonight since this comes out Wednesday.

Pinny has the line at O/U $76 Million June 28 - June 30th , with odds on both sides going back and forth at a crazy ass rate.

Sportsbook.com has the O/U at $89.5 Million June 28 - June 30th, with the over -130 and the under -110 as of right now. My wife and myself have $200 each on the under on sportsbook.

All the guesses so far on boxofficemojo and other online forums which just discuss opening numbers for movies feel this will do $24 to $34 Million opening day on Wednesday which would trend for it to do about 40% less Thursday and roughly 90% to 110% on Friday.

No one on any of the forums believe this movie will do $89.5 Million those first 3 days so I suggest everyone jump on that under for $200 at sportsbook before the line goes to like -200 or something crazy.

What does everyone feel this one will do?

I say

Wednesday - $29 Million
Thursday - $17 Million
Friday - $31 Million


Brendan [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[brendanb438]

So far I have seen lines in regards to this movie at Bodog, Pinnacle and Sportsbook.com. WSEX should have them up Tuesday night. Anyone know any other books taking bets on this or other Movie opening weekends?

betwwts.com has O/U $84.5 Million.


Brendan

[almostbusto]

#6324839 - 06/25/06 09:47 PM
the below quote is in reference to the 76 O/U figure.
[ QUOTE ]

This won't go over for sure. that is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I see this doing around 65 maybe 70 million those 3 days.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you say
[ QUOTE ]
Wednesday - $29 Million
Thursday - $17 Million
Friday - $31 Million

[/ QUOTE ]

almost exactly an hour later.

why the sudden dramatic change of heart? you went from it won't go over for sure to its more likely than not to happen in an hour.

[brendanb438]

I didn't see how many theatres this is opening in and I assumed around 3500. It looks like this will open in closer to 4000 theatres and that is why I think it might do right around that number that Pinny set it at.

Sorry for the initial confusion. I should have looked at the theatre numbers before I said I see this doing 65 - 70 Million. That is the reason for the 14% ish increase in what I think this will do.

Looks like whoever is picking Pinny's lines for this one is pretty solid.

Brendan

[brendanb438]

Looks like Pinny took their lines down for the time being because of all the wild action they were receiving last night. What all did everyone bet on the Pinny line and how much did you manage to ARB if you were trying for this?

Brendan

[almostbusto]

right now i am risking 184.26 to win 487.95 that the movie does U76.

also risking 200 to win 181.82 (should have got this at even money but i didn't notice it was a wed-fri prop until homer said so) that the movie goes under 89.5

so i can't lose as long as it stays under 89.5. as i said earlier though i really like the over 76 (at even money that is at -120 i think it loses pretty much all value based on my estimation) so i hope to get another chance to at least even it out a little.

[almostbusto]

anyone have any predictions for the fri-sat-sun weekend lines?

i don't have a great handle on how to predict them given the wednesday release.

[ThaHero]

I posted some analysis in a different Superman thread I started but had little info at that point. Search my name for the post. I'm posting from my phone right now which makes it difficult to search for and post links.

[brendanb438]

almostbusto it is tough to really really say.

I think

Wednesday $29 Million

Thursday $17 Million

Friday $31 Million

Saturday $21 Million

Sunday $14 Million

5 Day Total $112 Million

Brendan

[almostbusto]

in other movie news:

Pirates of the caribbean 2 is up for wagering at betwwts.com

O/U is at 102 (its a 3 day weekend movie) -120 for both sides. any thoughts?